WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. and
CHICAGO, Oct. 1, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Farmers became
much more pessimistic about current conditions on their own farms
and in the U.S. agricultural economy in late summer, according to
the September Purdue University/CME
Group Ag Economy Barometer. While the overall Ag Economy
Barometer reading dipped slightly to a reading of 121, down
three points from August; the Index of Current Conditions, a
sub-index of the barometer, dropped 22 points to a reading of 100.
The barometer is based on a mid-month survey of 400 agricultural
producers across the U.S.
Farmers' outlook toward making large investments such as
machinery or buildings also declined in September. The Farm
Capital Investment Index dropped for the second month in a row,
down nine points from August, which left it 20 points below the
July 2019 reading taken when corn and
soybean prices were peaking. Producers' farmland value expectations
for both the next 12 months and 5 years also drifted lower in
September.
Despite the weak near-term outlook provided by farmers, they
expressed some optimism about the future as the Index of Future
Expectations, another sub-index of the Ag Economy
Barometer, rose 6 points compared to August. "Even though
farmers are concerned about the near-term, both on their own farms
and for the ag economy, improved crop growing conditions during the
last half of the summer appeared to boost optimism regarding the
future," said James Mintert, the
barometer's principal investigator and director of Purdue University's Center for Commercial
Agriculture.
In the September survey, only one in five producers said they
expect profitability to decline over the next year, compared to 41
percent that expected a profitability decline when the same
question was posed back in May. "Considered jointly with this
month's decline in the Index of Current Conditions," said
Mintert, "this could be a signal that growers expect better times
in 2020 compared to 2019, possibly because they are looking forward
to a return to more normal growing conditions and crop production
in 2020."
Read the full September Ag Economy Barometer report at
https://purdue.ag/agbarometer. This month's report includes
insights into producers' perspectives towards a favorable outcome
to the trade dispute and their cropland rental arrangements. The
site also offers additional resources – such as past reports,
charts and survey methodology – and a form to sign up for monthly
barometer email updates and webinars. Each month, Purdue Center for
Commercial Agricultural Director James
Mintert provides a short video analysis of the barometer
results, available at https://purdue.ag/barometervideo.
The Ag Economy Barometer, Index of Current Conditions and Index
of Future Expectations are available on the Bloomberg Terminal
under the following ticker symbols: AGECBARO, AGECCURC and
AGECFTEX.
About the Purdue University
Center for Commercial Agriculture
The Center for Commercial
Agriculture was founded in 2011 to provide professional development
and educational programs for farmers. Housed within Purdue University's Department of Agricultural
Economics, the center's faculty and staff develop and execute
research and educational programs that address the different needs
of managing in today's business environment.
About CME Group
As the world's leading and most
diverse derivatives marketplace, CME Group (www.cmegroup.com)
enables clients to trade futures, options, cash and OTC markets,
optimize portfolios, and analyze data – empowering market
participants worldwide to efficiently manage risk and capture
opportunities. CME Group exchanges offer the widest range of global
benchmark products across all major asset classes based
on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign
exchange, energy, agricultural
products and metals. The company offers futures and
options on futures trading through the CME Globex® platform, fixed
income trading via BrokerTec and foreign exchange trading on the
EBS platform. In addition, it operates one of the world's leading
central counterparty clearing providers, CME Clearing. With a range
of pre- and post-trade products and services underpinning the
entire lifecycle of a trade, CME Group also offers optimization and
reconciliation services through TriOptima, and trade processing
services through Traiana.
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Inc. CBOT and Chicago Board
of Trade are trademarks of Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX, New York
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Writer: Kami Goodwin,
765-494-6999, kami@purdue.edu
Source: Jim Mintert,
765-494-7004, jmintert@purdue.edu
Related website:
Purdue
University Center for Commercial Agriculture:
http://purdue.edu/commercialag
CME Group: http://www.cmegroup.com/
Photo Caption: Farmer sentiment regarding current
conditions slips in September. (Purdue/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer/James Mintert)
A publication-quality photo is available at
https://news.uns.purdue.edu/images/2019/september-barometer.jpg
CME-G
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SOURCE CME Group