We operate in a rapidly changing environment that involves significant risks, a number of which are beyond our control. In addition to the other information contained in this Form 10-Q, the following discussion highlights some of these risks and the possible impact of these factors on our business, financial condition, and future results of operations. If any of the following risks actually occur, our business, financial condition, or results of operations may be adversely impacted, causing the trading price of our common stock to decline. In addition, these risks and uncertainties may impact the “forward-looking” statements described elsewhere in this Form 10-Q and in the documents incorporated herein by reference. They could affect our actual results of operations, causing them to differ materially from those expressed in “forward-looking” statements.
Global economic and political conditions may further impact our industries, business and financial results.
Our overall performance depends largely upon domestic and worldwide economic and political conditions. The United States and other international economies have experienced cyclical downturns from time to time in which economic activity was impacted by falling demand for a variety of goods and services, restricted credit, poor liquidity, decreased government spending, reduced corporate profitability, volatility in credit, equity and foreign exchange markets, bankruptcies and overall uncertainty with respect to the economy. These economic conditions can occur abruptly. If economic growth in countries where we do business slows or if such countries experience further economic recessions, customers may delay or reduce technology purchases. Our customers include government entities, including the U.S. federal government, and if spending cuts impede the ability of governments to purchase our products and services, our revenue could decline. In addition, a number of our customers rely, directly and indirectly, on government spending.
Geopolitical trends toward nationalism and protectionism and the weakening or dissolution of international trade pacts may increase the cost of, or otherwise interfere with, conducting business. These trends have increased levels of political and economic unpredictability globally, and may increase the volatility of global financial markets; the impact of such developments on the global economy remains uncertain. Political instability or adverse political developments in any of the countries in which we do business could harm our business, results of operations and financial condition.
A financial sector credit crisis could impair credit availability and the financial stability of our customers, including our distribution partners and channels. A disruption in the financial markets may also have an effect on our derivative counter-parties and could also impair our banking partners, on which we rely for operating cash management. Any of these events could harm our business, results of operations and financial condition.
Our strategy to develop and introduce new products and services exposes us to risks such as limited customer acceptance, costs related to product defects, and large expenditures, each of which may not result in additional net revenue or could result in decreased net revenue.
Rapid technological changes, as well as changes in customer requirements and preferences, characterize the software industry. Just as the transition from mainframes to personal computers transformed the industry 30 years ago, the software industry has undergone a transition from developing and selling perpetual licenses and on-premises products to cloud, mobile and social applications. Customers are also reconsidering the manner in which they purchase software products, which requires us to constantly evaluate our business model and strategy. In response, we are focused on providing solutions to enable our customers to be more agile and collaborative on their projects. We devote significant resources to the development of new technologies. In addition, we frequently introduce new business models or methods that require a considerable investment of technical and financial resources such as our introduction of flexible subscription and service offerings. It is uncertain whether these strategies will prove successful or whether we will be able to develop the necessary infrastructure and business models
more quickly than our competitors. We are making such investments through further development and enhancement of our existing products and services, as well as through acquisitions. Such investments may not result in sufficient revenue generation to justify their costs and could result in decreased net revenue or profitability. If we are not able to meet customer requirements, either with respect to our software or the manner in which we provide such products, or if we are not able to adapt our business model to meet our customers' requirements, our business, financial condition or results of operations may be adversely impacted.
In particular, a critical component of our growth strategy is to have customers of our AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT products expand their portfolios to include our other offerings and cloud-based functionality. We want customers using individual Autodesk products to expand their portfolio with our other offerings and cloud-based functionality, and we are taking steps to accelerate this migration. At times, sales of our AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT or individual Autodesk flagship products have decreased without a corresponding increase in Industry Collections or cloud-based functionality revenue or without purchases of customer seats to our Industry Collections. Should this continue, our results of operations will be adversely affected.
Our executive management team must act quickly, continuously, and with vision, given the rapidly changing customer expectations and technology advancements inherent in the software industry, the extensive and complex efforts required to create useful and widely accepted products and the rapid evolution of cloud computing, mobile devices, new computing platforms, and other technologies, such as consumer products. Although we have articulated a strategy that we believe will fulfill these challenges, if we fail to execute properly on that strategy or adapt that strategy as market conditions evolve, we may fail to meet our customers' expectations, fail to compete with our competitors' products and technology, and lose the confidence of our channel partners and employees. This in turn could adversely affect our business and financial performance.
Our business could suffer as a result of costs, charges and risks, including integration risks associated with strategic acquisitions and investments such as the recent acquisitions of Assemble Systems, PlanGrid and BuildingConnected.
We regularly acquire or invest in businesses, software solutions and technologies that are complementary to our business through acquisitions, strategic alliances or equity or debt investments. For example, in fiscal 2019, we acquired Assemble Systems, PlanGrid and BuildingConnected. The risks associated with such acquisitions include, among others, the difficulty of assimilating solutions, operations and personnel, inheriting liabilities such as intellectual property infringement claims, the failure to realize anticipated revenue and cost projections, the requirement to test and assimilate the internal control processes of the acquired business in accordance with the requirements of Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, and the diversion of management's time and attention.
In addition, such acquisitions and investments involve other risks such as:
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the inability to retain customers, key employees, vendors, distributors, business partners, and other entities associated with the acquired business;
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the potential that due diligence of the acquired business or solution does not identify significant problems;
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exposure to litigation or other claims in connection with, or inheritance of claims or litigation risk as a result of, an acquisition, including but not limited to, claims from terminated employees, customers, or other third parties;
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the potential for incompatible business cultures;
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significantly higher than anticipated transaction or integration-related costs;
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the potential additional exposure to fluctuations in currency exchange rates; and
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the potential impact on relationships with existing customers, vendors, and distributors as business partners as a result of acquiring another business.
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We may not be successful in overcoming such risks, and such acquisitions and investments may negatively impact our business. In addition, such acquisitions and investments have in the past and may in the future contribute to potential fluctuations in our quarterly financial results. These fluctuations could arise from transaction-related costs and charges associated with eliminating redundant expenses or write-offs of impaired assets recorded in connection with acquisitions and investments. These costs or charges could negatively impact our financial results for a given period, cause quarter to quarter variability in our financial results or negatively impact our financial results for several future periods.
We are dependent on international revenue and operations, exposing us to significant regulatory, global economic, intellectual property, collections, currency exchange rate, taxation, political instability and other risks, which could adversely impact our financial results.
We are dependent on our international operations for a significant portion of our revenue. International net revenue represented
66%
and
65%
of our net revenue for the three months ended April 30,
2019
and
2018
, respectively. Our international revenue, including that from emerging economies, is subject to general economic and political conditions in foreign markets, including conditions in foreign markets resulting from economic and political conditions in the U.S. Our revenue is also impacted by the relative geographical and country mix of our revenue over time. At times, these factors adversely impact our international revenue, and consequently our business as a whole. Our dependency on international revenue makes us much more exposed to global economic and political trends, which can negatively impact our financial results, even if our results in the U.S. are strong for a particular period.
We anticipate that our international operations will continue to account for a significant portion of our net revenue, and, as we expand our international development, sales and marketing expertise, will provide significant support to our overall efforts in countries outside of the U.S.
Risks inherent in our international operations include:
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tariffs, quotas, and other trade barriers and restrictions;
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fluctuating currency exchange rates, including devaluations, currency controls and inflation, and risks related to any hedging activities we undertake;
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unexpected changes in regulatory requirements and practices;
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delays resulting from difficulty in obtaining export licenses for certain technology;
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different purchase patterns as compared to the developed world;
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operating in locations with a higher incidence of corruption and fraudulent business practices, particularly in emerging economies;
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increasing enforcement by the U.S. under the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, and adoption of stricter anti-corruption laws in certain countries, including the United Kingdom;
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difficulties in staffing and managing foreign sales and development operations;
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longer collection cycles for accounts receivable;
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U.S. and foreign tax law changes impacting how multinational companies are taxed;
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laws regarding the management of and access to data and public networks;
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possible future limitations upon foreign owned businesses;
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increased financial accounting and reporting burdens and complexities;
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inadequate local infrastructure;
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greater difficulty in protecting intellectual property;
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other factors beyond our control, including popular uprisings, terrorism, war, natural disasters, and diseases.
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Some of our business partners also have international operations and are subject to the risks described above.
The "Brexit" vote has exacerbated and may further exacerbate many of the risks and uncertainties described above. The withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union could, among other potential outcomes, adversely affect the tax, currency, operational, legal and regulatory regimes to which our businesses in the region are subject. The withdrawal could also, among other potential outcomes, disrupt the free movement of goods, services and people between the United Kingdom and the European Union and significantly disrupt trade between the United Kingdom and the European Union and other parties. There remains significant risk that the United Kingdom will exit from the European Union without agreement between the European Union and United Kingdom on terms addressing customs and trade matters. Further, uncertainty around these and related issues could lead to adverse effects on the economy of the United Kingdom, European Union and the other economies in which we operate.
In addition, the current U.S. administration has instituted or proposed changes to foreign trade policy, including the negotiation or termination of trade agreements, the imposition of tariffs on products imported from certain countries, economic sanctions on individuals, corporations or countries and other government regulations affecting trade between the United States and other countries in which we do business. New or increased tariffs and other changes in U.S. trade policy could trigger retaliatory actions by affected countries, and certain foreign governments, including the Chinese government, have instituted or are considering imposing trade sanctions on certain U.S. manufactured goods. The escalation of protectionist or retaliatory trade measures in either the United States or any other countries in which we do business, such as a change in tariff structures, export compliance or other trade policies, may increase the cost of, or otherwise interfere with, conducting our business.
Even if we are able to successfully manage the risks of international operations, our business may be adversely affected if our business partners are not able to successfully manage these risks.
Security incidents may compromise the integrity of our or our customers’ offerings, services, data or intellectual property, harm our reputation, damage our competitiveness, create additional liability and adversely impact our financial results.
As we digitize Autodesk and use cloud and web-based technologies to leverage customer data to deliver the total customer experience, we are exposed to increased security risks and the potential for unauthorized access to, or improper use of, our and our customers' information. Like other software offerings and systems, ours are vulnerable to security incidents. We devote resources to maintain the security and integrity of our systems, offerings, services and applications (online, mobile and desktop). We accomplish this by enhancing security features, conducting penetration tests, code hardening, releasing security vulnerability updates and accelerating our incident response time. Despite these efforts, we may not prevent security incidents.
Hackers regularly have targeted our systems, offerings, services and applications, and we expect them to do so in the future. Security incidents could disrupt the proper functioning of our systems, solutions or services; cause errors in the output of our customers' work; allow unauthorized access to sensitive data or intellectual property, including proprietary or confidential information of ours or our customers; or cause other destructive outcomes.
The risk of a security incident, particularly through cyber attack or cyber intrusion, including by computer hackers, foreign governments and cyber terrorists, has increased as the number, intensity and sophistication of attempted attacks and intrusions from around the world have increased. These threats include, but are not limited to, identity theft, unauthorized access, DNS attacks, wireless network attacks, viruses and worms, advanced persistent threat (APT), application centric attacks, peer-to-peer attacks, phishing, malicious file uploads, backdoor trojans and distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks. In addition, third parties may attempt to fraudulently induce our employees, vendors, partners or users to disclose information to gain access to our data or our users’ data and there is the risk of employee, contractor, or vendor error or malfeasance. Despite efforts to create security barriers to such threats, it is virtually impossible for us to entirely eliminate this risk.
If any of the foregoing security incidents were to occur, our reputation may suffer, our competitive position may be diminished, customers may stop paying for our solutions and services, we could face regulatory inquiry, lawsuits and potential liability, and our financial performance could be negatively impacted.
Increasing regulatory focus on privacy issues and expanding laws may impact our business or expose us to increased liability.
Our strategy to digitize Autodesk involves increasing our use of cloud and web-based technologies and applications to leverage customer data to improve our offerings for the benefit of our customers. To accomplish this strategy, we must collect customer data, which may include personal data. Federal, state and foreign government privacy and data security laws apply to the treatment of personal data. Governments, regulators, the plaintiffs’ bar, privacy advocates and customers have increased their focus on how companies collect, process, use, store, share and transmit personal data.
The General Data Protection Regulation ("GDPR") is applicable in all EU member states The GDPR introduced new data protection requirements in the EU and substantial fines for non-compliance. In addition, in June 2018, California enacted the California Consumer Privacy Act (the "CCPA"), which takes effect in January 2020. The CCPA will, among other things, give California residents expanded rights to access and delete their personal information, opt out of certain personal information sharing, and receive detailed information about how their personal information is used. The CCPA was amended in September 2018, and it is unclear whether further modifications will be made to this legislation or how it will be interpreted. We cannot yet predict the impact of the CCPA on our business or operations, but it may require us to modify our data processing practices and policies and to incur substantial costs and expenses in an effort to comply.
The GDPR, CCPA and other state and global laws and regulations increased our responsibility and potential liability in relation to personal data, and we have and will continue to put in place additional processes and programs to demonstrate compliance. Any failure to comply with the GDPR or other data privacy laws could lead to government enforcement actions and significant penalties. Any perceived privacy right violation could result in reputational harm, third-party claims, lawsuits or investigations.
Additionally, we store customer information and content and if our customers fail to comply with contractual obligations or applicable laws, it could result in litigation or reputational harm to us. The GDPR, CCPA other laws and self-regulatory codes may affect our ability to reach current and prospective customers, to understand how our offerings and services are being used, to respond to customer requests allowed under the laws, and to implement our new business models effectively. These new laws and regulations would similarly affect our competitors as well as our customers. These requirements could impact demand for our offerings and services and result in more onerous contract obligations.
We rely on third parties to provide us with a number of operational and technical services; third-party security incidents could expose us to liability, harm our reputation, damage our competitiveness and adversely impact our financial performance.
We rely on third parties, such as Amazon Web Services, to provide us with operational and technical services. These third parties may have access to our systems, provide hosting services, or otherwise process data about us or our customers, employees, or partners. Any third-party security incident could compromise the integrity of, or availability or result in the theft of, data. In addition, our operations, or the operations of our customers or partners, could be negatively affected in the event of a security breach, and could be subject to the loss or theft of confidential or proprietary information, including source code. Unauthorized access to data and other confidential or proprietary information may be obtained through break-ins, network breaches by unauthorized parties, employee theft or misuse, or other misconduct. If any of the foregoing were to occur, our reputation may suffer, our competitive position may be diminished, customers may buy fewer of our offerings and services, we could face lawsuits and potential liability, and our financial performance could be negatively impacted.
Delays in service from third-party service providers could expose us to liability, harm our reputation, damage our competitiveness and adversely impact our financial performance.
From time to time, we may rely on a single or limited number of suppliers, or upon suppliers in a single country, for the provision of various services and materials that we use in the operation of our business and production of our solutions. The inability of such third parties to satisfy our requirements could disrupt our business operations or make it more difficult for us to implement our business strategy. If any of these situations were to occur, our reputation could be harmed, we could be subject to third-party liability, including under data protection and privacy laws in certain jurisdictions, and our financial performance could be negatively impacted.
We may not be able to predict subscription renewal rates and their impact on our future revenue and operating results.
Our customers are not obligated to renew their subscriptions for our offerings, and they may elect not to renew. We cannot assure renewal rates, or the mix of subscriptions renewals. Customer renewal rates may decline or fluctuate due to a number of factors, including offering pricing, competitive offerings, customer satisfaction, and reductions in customer spending levels or customer activity due to economic downturns or financial markets uncertainty. If our customers do not renew their subscriptions or if they renew on less favorable terms, our revenues may decline.
We are investing in resources to update and improve our information technology systems to digitize Autodesk and support our customers. Should our investments not succeed, or if delays or other issues with new or existing information technology systems disrupt our operations, our business could be harmed.
We rely on our network and data center infrastructure, technology systems and our websites for our development, marketing, operational, support, sales, accounting and financial reporting activities. We continually invest resources to update and improve these systems in order to meet the evolving requirements of our business and customers. In particular, our transition to cloud-based products and a subscription-only business model involves considerable investment in the development of technologies, as well as back-office systems for technical, financial, compliance and sales resources.
Such improvements are often complex, costly and time consuming. In addition, such improvements can be challenging to integrate with our existing technology systems, or may uncover problems with our existing technology systems. Unsuccessful implementation of hardware or software updates and improvements could result in disruption in our business operations, loss of customers, loss of revenue, errors in our accounting and financial reporting or damage to our reputation, all of which could harm our business.
Our software is highly complex and may contain undetected errors, defects or vulnerabilities, each of which could harm our business and financial performance.
The software solutions that we offer are complex and, despite extensive testing and quality control, may contain errors, defects or vulnerabilities. Some errors, defects and vulnerabilities in our software solutions may only be discovered after they have been released. Any errors, defects or vulnerabilities could result in the need for corrective releases to our software solutions, damage to our reputation, loss of revenue, an increase in subscription cancellations or lack of market acceptance of our offerings, any of which would likely harm our business and financial performance.
Existing and increased competition and rapidly evolving technological changes may reduce our revenue and profits.
The software industry has limited barriers to entry, and the availability of computing devices with continually expanding performance at progressively lower prices contributes to the ease of market entry. The software industry has undergone a transition from developing and selling perpetual licenses and on-premises products to cloud, mobile and social applications. This shift further lowers barriers to entry and poses a disruptive challenge to established software companies. The markets in which we compete are characterized by vigorous competition, both by entry of competitors with innovative technologies and by consolidation of companies with complementary offerings and technologies. In addition, some of our competitors in certain markets have greater financial, technical, sales and marketing, and other resources. Furthermore, a reduction in the number and availability of compatible third-party applications, or our inability to rapidly adapt to technological and customer preference changes, including those related to cloud computing, mobile devices, and new computing platforms, may adversely affect the sale of our solutions. Because of these and other factors, competitive conditions in the industry are likely to intensify in the future. Increased competition could result in price reductions, reduced net revenue and profit margins and loss of market share, any of which would likely harm our business.
We are subject to governmental export and import controls that could impair our ability to compete in international markets or subject us to liability if we violate the controls
.
Our offerings are subject to U.S. export controls and economic sanctions laws and regulations that prohibit the delivery of certain solutions and services without the required export authorizations or export to locations, governments, and persons targeted by U.S. sanctions. While we have processes in place to prevent our offerings from being exported in violation of these laws, including obtaining authorizations as appropriate and screening against U.S. government and international lists of restricted and prohibited persons, we cannot guarantee that these processes will prevent all violations of export control and sanctions laws.
If our channel partners fail to obtain appropriate import, export or re-export licenses or permits, we may also be adversely affected, through reputational harm as well as other negative consequences including government investigations and penalties. We presently incorporate export control and sanctions compliance requirements in our channel partner agreements. Complying with export control and sanctions regulations for a particular sale may be time-consuming and may result in the delay or loss of sales opportunities. Violations of U.S. sanctions or export control laws can result in fines or penalties.
We are exposed to fluctuations in currency exchange rates that could negatively impact our financial results and cash flows.
Because we conduct a substantial portion of our business outside the U.S., we face exposure to adverse movements in foreign currency exchange rates. These exposures may change over time as business practices evolve and economic conditions change. Our exposure to adverse movements in foreign currency exchange rates could have a material adverse impact on our financial results and cash flows.
We use derivative instruments to manage a portion of our cash flow exposure to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates. As part of our risk management strategy, we use foreign currency contracts to manage a portion of our exposures of underlying assets, liabilities, and other obligations, which exist as part of our ongoing business operations. These foreign currency instruments have maturities that extend for one to twelve months in the future and provide us with some protection against currency exposures. However, our attempts to hedge against these risks may not be completely successful, resulting in an adverse impact on our financial results.
The fluctuations of currencies in which we conduct business can both increase and decrease our overall revenue and expenses for any given fiscal period. Although our foreign currency cash flow hedge program extends beyond the current quarter in order to reduce our exposure to foreign currency volatility, we do not attempt to completely mitigate this risk, and in any case, will incur transaction fees in adopting such hedging programs. Such volatility, even when it increases our revenues or decreases our expenses, impacts our ability to accurately predict our future results and earnings.
In addition, countries in which we operate may be classified as highly inflationary economies, requiring special
accounting and financial reporting treatment for such operations, or such countries’ currencies may be devalued, or both, which may adversely impact our business operations and financial results.
If we do not maintain good relationships with the members of our distribution channel, our ability to generate revenue will be adversely affected. If our distribution channel suffers financial losses, becomes financially unstable or insolvent, or is not provided the right mix of incentives to sell our subscriptions, our ability to generate revenue will be adversely affected.
We sell our software products both directly to end-users and through a network of distributors and resellers. For the three months ended April 30,
2019
and
2018
, approximately
70%
and
71%
, respectively, of our revenue was derived from indirect channel sales through distributors and resellers, and we expect that the majority of our revenue will continue to be derived from indirect channel sales in the near future. Our ability to effectively distribute our solutions depends in part upon the financial and business condition of our distributor and reseller network. Computer software distributors and resellers typically are not highly capitalized, have previously experienced difficulties during times of economic contraction and experienced difficulties during the past several years. We have processes to ensure that we assess the creditworthiness of distributors and resellers prior to our sales to them. In the past we have taken steps to support them, and may take additional steps in the future, such as extending credit terms and providing temporary discounts. These steps, if taken, could harm our financial results. If our distributors and resellers were to become insolvent, they would not be able to maintain their business and sales, or provide customer support services, which would negatively impact our business and revenue.
We rely significantly upon major distributors and resellers in both the U.S. and international regions, including the distributors Tech Data and Ingram Micro. Tech Data accounted for
35%
and
34%
of our total net revenue for the three months ended April 30,
2019
and
2018
, respectively, and Ingram Micro accounted for
10%
of our total net revenue for both the three months ended April 30,
2019
and
2018
. Should any of our agreements with Tech Data and Ingram Micro be terminated for any reason, we believe the resellers and end users who currently purchase our products through Tech Data and Ingram Micro would be able to continue to do so under substantially the same terms from one of our many other distributors without substantial disruption to our revenue. Consequently, we believe our business is not substantially dependent on Tech Data and Ingram Micro. However, if either distributor were to experience a significant disruption with its business, or if our relationship with either of them were to significantly deteriorate, it is possible that our ability to sell to resellers and end users would be, at least temporarily, negatively impacted. This could in turn negatively impact our financial results.
Over time, we have modified and will continue to modify aspects of our relationship with our distributors and resellers, such as their incentive programs, pricing to them and our distribution model to motivate and reward them for aligning their
businesses with our strategy and business objectives. Changes in these relationships and underlying programs could negatively impact their business and harm our business. Further, our distributors and resellers may lose confidence in our business, move to competitive products, or may not have the skills or ability to support customers. The loss of or a significant reduction in business with those distributors or resellers could harm our business. In particular, if one or more of such distributors or resellers were unable to meet their obligations with respect to accounts payable to us, we could be forced to write off such accounts and may be required to delay the recognition of revenue on future sales to these customers. These events could have a material adverse effect on our financial results.
Our financial results fluctuate within each quarter and from quarter to quarter, making our future revenue and financial results difficult to predict.
Our quarterly financial results have fluctuated in the past and will continue to do so in the future. These fluctuations could cause our stock price to change significantly or experience declines. We also provide investors with quarterly and annual financial forward-looking guidance that could prove to be inaccurate as a result of these fluctuations. In addition to the other factors described in this Part II, Item 1A, some of the factors that could cause our financial results to fluctuate include:
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general market, economic, business, and political conditions in particular geographies, including Europe, APAC, and emerging economies;
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failure to produce sufficient revenue, ARR, billings, subscription, profitability and cash flow growth;
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security breaches, related reputational harm, and potential financial penalties to customers and government entities;
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failure to accurately predict the impact of acquired businesses or to identify and realize the anticipated benefits of acquisitions and successfully integrate such acquired businesses and technologies;
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potential goodwill impairment charges related to prior acquisitions;
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failure to manage spend;
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changes in billings linearity;
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changes in subscription mix, pricing pressure or changes in subscription pricing;
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weak or negative growth in one or more of the industries we serve, including AEC, manufacturing, and digital media and entertainment markets;
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the success of new business or sales initiatives;
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restructuring or other accounting charges and unexpected costs or other operating expenses;
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timing of additional investments in our technologies or deployment of our services;
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changes in revenue recognition or other accounting guidelines employed by us and/or established by the Financial Accounting Standards Board, Securities Exchange Commission or other rule-making bodies;
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dependence on and the timing of large transactions;
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adjustments arising from ongoing or future tax examinations;
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the ability of governments around the world to adopt fiscal policies, meet their financial and debt obligations, and to finance infrastructure projects;
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failure to expand our AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT customer base to related design products and services;
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our ability to rapidly adapt to technological and customer preference changes, including those related to cloud computing, mobile devices and new computing platforms;
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the timing of the introduction of new products by us or our competitors;
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the financial and business condition of our reseller and distribution channels;
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perceived or actual technical or other problems with a product or combination of subscriptions;
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unexpected or negative outcomes of matters and expenses relating to litigation or regulatory inquiries;
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increases in cloud functionality-related expenses;
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timing of releases and retirements of offerings;
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changes in tax laws, regulations or tax accounting rules, such as increased use of fair value measures;
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changes in sales compensation practices;
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failure to effectively implement and maintain our copyright legalization programs, especially in developing countries;
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renegotiation or termination of royalty or intellectual property arrangements;
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fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates and the effectiveness of our hedging activity;
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interruptions or terminations in the business of our consultants or third-party developers;
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the timing and degree of expected investments in growth and efficiency opportunities;
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failure to achieve continued success in technology advancements;
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catastrophic events or natural disasters;
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regulatory compliance costs; and
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failure to appropriately estimate the scope of services under consulting arrangements.
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We have also experienced fluctuations in financial results in interim periods in certain geographic regions due to seasonality or regional economic or political conditions. In particular, our financial results in Europe during our third quarter are usually affected by a slower summer period, and our APAC operations typically experience seasonal slowing in our third and fourth quarters.
Our operating expenses are based in part on our expectations for future revenue and are relatively fixed in the short term. Accordingly, any revenue shortfall below expectations has had, and in the future could have, an immediate and significant adverse effect on our profitability. Greater than anticipated expenses or a failure to maintain rigorous cost controls would also negatively affect profitability.
Because we derive a substantial portion of our net revenue from a small number of solutions, including our AutoCAD-based software products and collections, if these offerings are not successful, our revenue will be adversely affected.
We derive a substantial portion of our net revenue from sales of subscriptions of a limited number of our offerings, including AutoCAD software, solutions based on AutoCAD, which include our collections that serve specific markets and products that are interoperable with AutoCAD. Any factor adversely affecting sales of these subscriptions, including the product release cycle, market acceptance, product competition, performance and reliability, reputation, price competition, economic and market conditions and the availability of third-party applications, would likely harm our financial results. During the three months ended April 30,
2019
and
2018
, combined revenue from our AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT products, not including collections having AutoCAD or AutoCAD LT as a component, represented
29%
and
28%
of our total net revenue, respectively.
Our debt service obligations may adversely affect our financial condition and cash flows from operations.
We have $
1,963.3 million
of debt, consisting of notes due at various times from June 2020 to June 2027 and a delayed draw term loan facility in the aggregate remaining principal amount of $
375.0 million
due in December 2020, each as described
in Part I, Item 1. We also entered into a credit agreement that provides for an unsecured revolving loan facility in the aggregate principal amount of $650.0 million, with an option to be increased up to $1.0 billion, as described in Part I, Item 1. Maintenance of our indebtedness, contractual restrictions, and additional issuances of indebtedness could:
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cause us to dedicate a substantial portion of our cash flows from operations towards debt service obligations and principal repayments;
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increase our vulnerability to adverse changes in general economic, industry and competitive conditions;
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limit our flexibility in planning for, or reacting to, changes in our business and our industry;
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impair our ability to obtain future financing for working capital, capital expenditures, acquisitions, general corporate or other purposes; and
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due to limitations within the debt instruments, restrict our ability to grant liens on property, enter into certain mergers, dispose of all or substantially all of the assets of Autodesk and its subsidiaries, taken as a whole, materially change our business and incur subsidiary indebtedness, subject to customary exceptions.
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We are required to comply with the covenants set forth in our debt instruments, such as an interest coverage ratio in effect January 31, 2019, and a leverage ratio in effect July 31, 2019. If we breach any of the covenants and do not obtain a waiver from the note holders or lenders, then, subject to applicable cure periods, we would not be able to incur additional indebtedness under the credit agreement described in Part I, Item 1, and any outstanding indebtedness may be declared immediately due and payable. In addition, changes by any rating agency to our credit rating may negatively impact the value and liquidity of our securities. Under certain circumstances, if our credit ratings are downgraded or other negative action is taken, the interest rate payable by us under our credit agreement could increase. Downgrades in our credit ratings could also restrict our ability to obtain additional financing in the future and could affect the terms of any such financing.
If we are not able to adequately protect our proprietary rights, our business could be harmed.
We rely on a combination of patent, copyright and trademark laws, trade secret protections, confidentiality procedures and contractual provisions to protect our proprietary rights. Despite such efforts to protect our proprietary rights, unauthorized parties from time to time have copied aspects of our software or have obtained and used information that we regard as proprietary. Policing unauthorized use of our software is time-consuming and costly. We are unable to measure the extent to which piracy of our software exists, and we expect that software piracy will remain a persistent problem, particularly in emerging economies. Furthermore, our means of protecting our proprietary rights may not be adequate.
Additionally, we actively protect the secrecy of our confidential information and trade secrets, including our source code. If unauthorized disclosure of our source code occurs, we could potentially lose future trade secret protection for that source code. The loss of future trade secret protection could make it easier for third parties to compete with our offerings by copying functionality, which could adversely affect our financial performance and our reputation. We also seek to protect our confidential information and trade secrets through the use of non-disclosure agreements with our customers, contractors, vendors and partners. However, it is possible that our confidential information and trade secrets may be disclosed or published without our authorization. If this were to occur, it may be difficult and/or costly for us to enforce our rights, and our financial performance and reputation could be negatively impacted.
We may face intellectual property infringement claims that could be costly to defend and result in the loss of significant rights.
As more software patents are granted worldwide, the number of offerings and competitors in our industries grows. As the functionality of products in different industries overlaps, we expect that software developers will be increasingly subject to infringement claims. Infringement or misappropriation claims have in the past been, and may in the future be, asserted against us, and any such assertions could harm our business. Additionally, certain patent holders without products have become more aggressive in threatening and pursuing litigation in attempts to obtain fees for licensing the right to use patents. Any such claims or threats, whether with or without merit, have been and could in the future be time-consuming to defend, result in costly litigation and diversion of resources, cause product delays or require us to enter into royalty or licensing agreements. In addition, such royalty or license agreements, if required, may not be available on acceptable terms, if at all, which would likely harm our business.
From time to time, we realign or introduce new business and sales initiatives; if we fail to successfully execute and manage these initiatives, our results of operations could be negatively impacted.
As part of our effort to accommodate our customers' needs and demands and the rapid evolution of technology, we from time to time evolve our business and sales initiatives such as realigning our development and marketing organizations, offering software as a service, and realigning our internal resources in an effort to improve efficiency. We may take such actions without clear indications that they will prove successful, and at times, we have been met with short-term challenges in the execution of such initiatives. Market acceptance of any new business or sales initiative is dependent on our ability to match our customers' needs at the right time and price. Often we have limited prior experience and operating history in these new areas of emphasis. If any of our assumptions about expenses, revenue or revenue recognition principles from these initiatives proves incorrect, or our attempts to improve efficiency are not successful, our actual results may vary materially from those anticipated, and our financial results will be negatively impacted.
Net revenue, ARR, billings, earnings, cash flow, net revenue retention rate, or subscriptions shortfalls or the volatility of the market generally may cause the market price of our stock to decline.
The market price for our common stock has experienced significant fluctuations and may continue to fluctuate significantly. The market price for our common stock may be affected by a number of factors, including the other factors described in this
Part I
I,
Item 1A
and the following:
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shortfalls in our expected financial results, including net revenue, ARR, billings, earnings and cash flow or key performance metrics, such as Net revenue retention rate or subscriptions;
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quarterly variations in our or our competitors' results of operations;
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general socio-economic, political or market conditions;
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changes in estimates of future results or recommendations or confusion on the part of analysts and investors about the short-term and long-term impact to our business;
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uncertainty about certain governments' abilities to repay debt or effect fiscal policy;
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the announcement of new offerings or enhancements by us or our competitors;
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unusual events such as significant acquisitions, divestitures, regulatory actions, and litigation;
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changes in laws, rules, or regulations applicable to our business;
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outstanding debt service obligations; and
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other factors, including factors unrelated to our operating performance, such as instability affecting the economy or the operating performance of our competitors.
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Significant changes in the price of our common stock could expose us to costly and time-consuming litigation. Historically, after periods of volatility in the market price of a company's securities, a company becomes more susceptible to securities class action litigation. This type of litigation is often expensive and diverts management's attention and resources.
Our business could be adversely affected if we are unable to attract and retain key personnel.
Our success and ability to invest and grow depend largely on our ability to attract and retain highly skilled technical, professional, managerial, sales, and marketing personnel. Historically, competition for these key personnel has been intense. The loss of services of any of our key personnel (including key personnel joining our company through acquisitions), the inability to retain and attract qualified personnel in the future, or delays in hiring required personnel, particularly engineering and sales personnel, could make it difficult to meet key objectives, such as timely and effective product introductions and financial goals.
Our investment portfolio consists of a variety of investment vehicles in a number of countries that are subject to interest rate trends, market volatility, and other economic factors. If general economic conditions decline, this could cause the credit ratings of our investments to deteriorate, illiquidity in the financial marketplace, and we may experience a decline in interest income and an inability to sell our investments, leading to impairment in the value of our investments.
It is our policy to invest our cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities in highly liquid instruments with, and in the custody of, financial institutions with high credit ratings and to limit the amounts invested with any one institution, type of security and issuer. However, we are subject to general economic conditions, interest rate trends and volatility in the financial marketplace that can affect the income that we receive from our investments, the net realizable value of our investments (including our cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities) and our ability to sell them. Any one of these factors could reduce our investment income, or result in material charges, which in turn could impact our overall net income (loss) and earnings (loss) per share.
From time to time, we make direct investments in privately held companies. Privately held company investments are considered inherently risky. The technologies and products these companies have under development are typically in the early stages and may never materialize, which could result in a loss of all or a substantial part of our initial investment in these companies. The evaluation of privately held companies is based on information that we request from these companies, which is not subject to the same disclosure regulations as U.S. publicly traded companies, and as such, the basis for these evaluations is subject to the timing and accuracy of the data received from these companies.
A loss on any of our investments may cause us to record an other-than-temporary impairment charge. The effect of this charge could impact our overall net income (loss) and earnings (loss) per share. In any of these scenarios, our liquidity may be negatively impacted, which in turn may prohibit us from making investments in our business, taking advantage of opportunities and potentially meeting our financial obligations as they come due.
We are subject to legal proceedings and regulatory inquiries, and we may be named in additional legal proceedings or become involved in regulatory inquiries in the future, all of which are costly, distracting to our core business and could result in an unfavorable outcome, or a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations, cash flows or the trading prices for our securities.
We are involved in legal proceedings and receive inquiries from regulatory agencies. As the global economy has changed and our business has evolved, we have seen an increase in litigation activity and regulatory inquiries. Like many other high technology companies, the number and frequency of inquiries from U.S. and foreign regulatory agencies we have received regarding our business and our business practices, and the business practices of others in our industry, have increased in recent years. In the event that we are involved in significant disputes or are the subject of a formal action by a regulatory agency, we could be exposed to costly and time consuming legal proceedings that could result in any number of outcomes. Any claims or regulatory actions initiated by or against us, whether successful or not, could result in expensive costs of defense, costly damage awards, injunctive relief, increased costs of business, fines or orders to change certain business practices, significant dedication of management time, diversion of significant operational resources, or otherwise harm our business. In any of these cases, our financial results, results of operations, cash flows or the trading prices for our securities could be negatively impacted.
We are subject to risks related to taxation in multiple jurisdictions.
We are a U.S.-based multinational company subject to tax in multiple U.S. and foreign tax jurisdictions. Our effective tax rate is primarily based on our expected geographic mix of earnings, statutory rates, intercompany arrangements, including the manner in which we develop, value and license our intellectual property, and enacted tax rules. Significant judgment is required in determining our effective tax rate and in evaluating our tax positions on a worldwide basis. While we believe our tax positions, including intercompany transfer pricing policies, are consistent with the tax laws in the jurisdictions in which we conduct our business, it is possible that these positions may be overturned by jurisdictional tax authorities and may have a significant impact on our effective tax rate.
Tax laws are dynamic and subject to change as new laws are passed and new interpretations of the law are issued or applied. For example, the U.S. government enacted significant tax law changes in December 2017, the Tax Act, which impacted our tax obligations and effective tax rate beginning in our fiscal 2018 tax year. Increasingly, governmental tax authorities are scrutinizing corporate tax strategies. Many countries in the European Union, as well as other countries and organizations such as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, are actively considering changes to existing tax laws that, if enacted, could increase our tax obligations in many countries where we do business. If the U.S. or foreign tax authorities change applicable tax laws or successfully challenge the manner in which our profits are currently
recognized, our overall taxes could increase, and our business, financial condition or results of operations may be adversely impacted.
Uncertainties in the interpretation and application of the Tax Act could materially affect our tax obligations and effective tax rate.
The Tax Act was enacted on December 22, 2017, and provided broad and significant changes to the U.S. tax code and how the U.S. imposes income tax on multinational corporations. Due to the complexity and varying interpretations of the Tax Act, the U.S. Department of Treasury has issued and will continue to issue regulations and interpretative guidance that could significantly impact how we will apply the law and the ultimate impact to our results of operations from the Tax Act.
The Tax Act requires complex computations to be performed that were not previously provided for in the U.S. tax law. These computations require significant judgments to be made regarding the interpretation of the provisions within the Tax Act and treasury regulations issued thereunder, along with preparation and analysis of information not previously required. As additional regulatory guidance is issued, we may make amendments to prior year tax returns.
Changes in existing financial accounting standards or practices, or taxation rules or practices, may adversely affect our results of operations.
Changes in existing accounting or taxation rules or practices, new accounting pronouncements or taxation rules, or varying interpretations of current accounting pronouncements or taxation practice could have a significant adverse effect on our results of operations or the manner in which we conduct our business. Further, such changes could potentially affect our reporting of transactions completed before such changes are effective.
We are required to evaluate our internal control over financial reporting under Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 and any adverse results from such evaluation could result in a loss of investor confidence in our financial reports and have an adverse effect on our stock price.
Pursuant to Section 404 of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, we are required to furnish a report by our management on our internal control over financial reporting. The report contains, among other matters, an assessment of the effectiveness of our internal control over financial reporting as of the end of our fiscal year, including a statement as to whether or not our internal control over financial reporting is effective. This assessment must include disclosure of any material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting identified by management.
If our management or independent registered public accounting firm identifies one or more material weaknesses in our internal control over financial reporting, we would be unable to assert that such internal control over financial reporting is effective. If we are unable to assert that our internal control over financial reporting is effective (or if our independent registered public accounting firm is unable to express an opinion that our internal controls are effective), we could lose investor confidence in the accuracy and completeness of our financial reports, which could have an adverse effect on our business and stock price.
In preparing our financial statements, we make certain assumptions, judgments and estimates that affect amounts reported in our condensed consolidated financial statements, which, if not accurate, may significantly impact our financial results.
We make assumptions, judgments and estimates for a number of items, including revenue recognition for our hybrid desktop software and cloud service subscriptions, the fair value of financial instruments, goodwill, long-lived assets and other intangible assets, the realizability of deferred tax assets and the fair value of stock awards. We also make assumptions, judgments and estimates in determining the accruals for employee related liabilities including commissions, bonuses, and sabbaticals; and in determining the accruals for uncertain tax positions, partner incentive programs, product returns reserves, allowances for doubtful accounts, asset retirement obligations and legal contingencies. These assumptions, judgments and estimates are drawn from historical experience and various other factors that we believe are reasonable under the circumstances as of the date of the consolidated financial statements. Actual results could differ materially from our estimates, and such differences could significantly impact our financial results.
We rely on third-party technologies and if we are unable to use or integrate these technologies, our solutions and service development may be delayed and our financial results negatively impacted.
We rely on certain software that we license from third parties, including software that is integrated with internally developed software and used in our offerings to perform key functions. These third-party software licenses may not continue to be available on commercially reasonable terms, and the software may not be appropriately supported, maintained or enhanced by the licensors. The loss of licenses to, or inability to support, maintain and enhance any such software could result in increased costs or delays until equivalent software can be developed, identified, licensed and integrated, which would likely harm our business.
Disruptions with licensing relationships and third-party developers could adversely impact our business.
We license certain key technologies from third parties. Licenses may be restricted in the term or the use of such technology in ways that negatively affect our business. Similarly, we may not be able to obtain or renew license agreements for key technology on favorable terms, if at all, and any failure to do so could harm our business.
Our business strategy has historically depended in part on our relationships with third-party developers who provide products that expand the functionality of our design software. Some developers may elect to support other products or may experience disruption in product development and delivery cycles or financial pressure during periods of economic downturn. In particular markets, such disruptions have in the past, and would likely in the future, negatively impact these third-party developers and end users, which could harm our business.
Additionally, technology created by outsourced product development, whether outsourced to third parties or developed externally and transferred to us through business or technology acquisitions, has certain additional risks such as effective integration into existing products, adequate transfer of technology know-how and ownership and protection of transferred intellectual property.
As a result of our strategy of partnering with other companies for product development, our product delivery schedules could be adversely affected if we experience difficulties with our product development partners.
We partner with certain independent firms and contractors to perform some of our product development activities. We believe our partnering strategy allows us to, among other things, achieve efficiencies in developing new products and maintaining and enhancing existing product offerings. Our partnering strategy creates a dependency on such independent developers. Independent developers, including those who currently develop solutions for us in the U.S. and throughout the world, may not be able or willing to provide development support to us in the future. In addition, use of development resources through consulting relationships, particularly in non-U.S. jurisdictions with developing legal systems, may be adversely impacted by, and expose us to risks relating to, evolving employment, export and intellectual property laws. These risks could, among other things, expose our intellectual property to misappropriation and result in disruptions to product delivery schedules.
Our business may be significantly disrupted upon the occurrence of a catastrophic event.
Our business is highly automated and relies extensively on the availability of our network and data center infrastructure, our internal technology systems and our websites. We also rely on hosted computer services from third parties for services that we provide to our customers and computer operations for our internal use. The failure of our systems or hosted computer services due to a catastrophic event, such as an earthquake, fire, flood, tsunami, weather event, telecommunications failure, power failure, cyber attack, terrorism, or war, could adversely impact our business, financial results and financial condition. We have developed disaster recovery plans and maintain backup systems in order to reduce the potential impact of a catastrophic event, however there can be no assurance that these plans and systems would enable us to return to normal business operations. In addition, any such event could negatively impact a country or region in which we sell our products. This could in turn decrease that country's or region's demand for our products, thereby negatively impacting our financial results.
If we were required to record an impairment charge related to the value of our long-lived assets, or an additional valuation allowance against our deferred tax assets, our results of operations would be adversely affected.
Our long-lived assets are tested for impairment if indicators of impairment exist. If impairment testing shows that the carrying value of our long-lived assets exceeds their estimated fair values, we would be required to record a non-cash impairment charge, which would decrease the carrying value of our long-lived assets, as the case may be, and our results of operations would be adversely affected. Our deferred tax assets include net operating loss, amortizable tax assets and tax credit carryforwards that can be used to offset taxable income and reduce income taxes payable in future periods. Each quarter, we assess the need for a valuation allowance, considering both positive and negative evidence to determine whether all or a portion of the deferred tax assets are more likely than not to be realized. In fiscal 2016, and in fiscal 2018, we determined that it was more likely than not that Autodesk would not realize our U.S. and Singapore deferred tax assets and established a valuation allowance against the deferred tax assets in each respective jurisdiction. We continued to have a full valuation allowance against our U.S. and Singapore deferred tax assets in fiscal 2019. Changes in the amount of the valuation allowance could result in a material non-cash expense or benefit in the period in which the valuation allowance is adjusted and our results of operations could be materially affected. We will continue to perform these tests and any future adjustments may have a material effect on our financial condition and results of operations.