DALLAS, Aug. 2, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica Bank's
California Economic Activity Index increased 0.2 percent in May to
a level of 124.5. May's reading is 27 points, or 27 percent, above
the index cyclical low of 97.8. The index averaged 124.0 points in
2018, 2.8 points above the average for all of 2017. April's reading
was 124.2.
Comerica Bank's California Economic Activity Index improved
again in May and has now increased for three consecutive months. At
the beginning of 2019, the majority of the subcomponents in the
California Index were negative. Fortunately, this trend has
reversed course in recent months. There were six positive
components in May. They included nonfarm employment, housing
starts, house prices, industrial electricity demand, total state
trade and the Dow Jones Technology Index. Only two components were
negative for the month, unemployment insurance claims (inverted)
and hotel occupancy. Prior to May's reading, our California Index
had been range bound since January
2018. Over the last 17 months, the index has declined six
times, gone unchanged three times and increased eight times. Steady
job growth is moving from a stabilizing factor for California's economy in 2018 to an
accelerating factor in 2019. The state added 171,700 jobs in the
first six months of 2019, a step up from the 154,000 jobs added in
the first six months of 2018. Over half of the jobs created in 2019
can be attributed to the construction, healthcare and hospitality
industries. There is a risk that stronger job growth may only be
temporary. Most of the major metropolitan areas across the state
are experiencing very low unemployment rates. Tight labor markets
and flat to negative net migration for the state means limited
upside potential for California job growth going forward.
The California Economic Activity Index consists of eight
variables, as follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing
claims for unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price
index, industrial electricity sales, total trade, technology stock
index and hotel occupancy. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index
levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.
Comerica Bank, with locations in the key California markets of San Francisco and the East Bay, San Jose, Los
Angeles, Orange County,
San Diego, Fresno, Sacramento, Santa
Cruz/Monterey, and the
Inland Empire, is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA). Comerica is a financial services company headquartered in
Dallas, Texas, and strategically
aligned into three major business segments: the Business Bank, the
Retail Bank, and Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on
relationships and helping businesses and people be successful..
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank