Adobe Forecasts $124 Billion in U.S. Online Sales This Holiday Season
November 01 2018 - 9:00AM
Business Wire
Retailers with Online and Physical Storefronts to See 28
Percent Higher Conversion Online; One Percent of Product SKUs to
Drive 70 Percent of Online Sales; Voice-Assisted Shopping on the
Rise
Adobe (Nasdaq:ADBE) today released its online shopping
predictions for the 2018 holiday season (Nov. 1 through Dec. 31)
powered by Adobe Sensei. Based on Adobe Analytics data, Adobe
predicts that U.S. online sales will increase 14.8 percent,
totaling $124.1 billion, while offline retail spending is expected
to increase a modest 2.7 percent*. Cyber Monday will set a new
record as the largest- and fastest-growing online shopping day of
the year with $7.7 billion in sales, a 17.6 percent increase year
over year (YoY). Online sales between 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. Pacific
Time on Cyber Monday are expected to drive more revenue than an
average full day in 2018, with conversions hitting the highest rate
of the year, 7.3 percent, during these golden hours of online
retail.
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Thanksgiving Day sales are expected to increase by 16.5 percent,
generating $3.3 billion. Nearly one out of five dollars this
holiday season will be spent between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber
Monday, generating $23.4 billion or 19 percent of total online
sales. One extra calendar day between Cyber Monday and Christmas
Day will give retailers a $284 million boost in sales. A record
number of days will hit new revenue milestones, with 36 days
surpassing $2 billion compared to just 22 days in 2017. Most
anticipated gifts include 4K TVs, retro video games and consoles,
as well as toys like Pomsies, Grumblies and Fortnite Monopoly.
“As online shopping surges with another record-breaking holiday
season, the retailers with compelling websites coupled with
physical store locations will have the advantage,” said John
Copeland, head of Marketing and Customer Insights at Adobe. “Many
shoppers want to interact with retailers’ products and the brand
in-store, and the ability to pick up online orders in-store within
a matter of hours can’t be underestimated.”
Retailers with online and physical footprints are expected to
see 28 percent higher conversion online in comparison to retailers
lacking a traditional storefront. Adobe Analytics data anticipates
shoppers increasingly buying online and picking up items in-store
(BOPIS) during the holiday season. BOPIS has increased 119 percent
since January 2018 across all retailers and over 250 percent for
large retailers**. A survey of over 1,000 U.S. consumers shows
nearly half (47 percent) expect to browse in-store for a product
they intend to buy online later, jumping to 58 percent among
millennials.
Additional predictions include:
- Top-selling products: Adobe
predicts one percent of SKUs will drive a record 70 percent of
sales during the holiday season, 30 percent more than during the
rest of the year. 4K TVs, as well as retro video consoles and games
such as Tekken 3, Ridge Racer Type 4 and Final Fantasy VII, are
expected to perform well for the second consecutive year. Top toys
include Fingerlings, Fortnite Monopoly, Grumblies, Hatchimal
Hatchibabies, Jurassic World Jeep Wrangler, LEGO Harry Potter
Hogwarts Great Hall set, and Pomsies.
- Best days for deals: Black
Friday reigns supreme for discounts on electronics, including
tablets (discounted at 33 percent), TVs (22 percent) and computers
(16 percent). On the Sunday before Cyber Monday, shoppers will see
the best deals on apparel (22 percent), appliances (18 percent) and
jewelry (five percent). Cyber Monday will see the largest discounts
on toys (19 percent), Giving Tuesday for furniture and bedding (14
percent) and Thanksgiving for sporting goods (13 percent).
- The mobile revenue opportunity:
Smartphones continue to gain share as consumers’ preferred devices
for online shopping, representing 48.3 percent of visits and 27.2
percent of revenue. Mobile revenue is up 11.6 percent YoY. Yet,
completed cart orders happen over 20 percent less on smartphones
than desktop, as a result of abandonment from sub-optimal checkout
experiences. Closing this gap equates to $9 billion in mobile
sales. Tablets are on the decline, making up 8.8 percent of visits
(down 30 percent in four years) and just 9.6 percent of sales.
Consumers using mobile apps will spend more time browsing and
complete sales two times more often than on the web.
- Emerging shopping trends:
Voice-assisted shopping is on the rise, with 21 percent of
consumers reporting they are planning to reorder
frequently-purchased items and 17 percent placing one-time orders
for in-store pickup using their voice activated devices. Adobe
expects holiday shoppers to ship and return purchases more often
compared to the rest of the year (5 and 18 percent more
respectively), and to shop more for experiences like cruises and
hotels on Cyber Monday. More consumers will stay home on
Thanksgiving Day. Sixty percent report they won’t shop in stores on
Thanksgiving Day, up from 40 percent in 2016.
- Top revenue-driving marketing
channels: Retailers will be able to capitalize on loyal
customers that go directly to their website to make a purchase,
with revenue per visit (RPV) rising the most at 36 percent. Search
has the second highest RPV growth at 23 percent, followed by helper
sites like RetailMeNot (15 percent) and email at 8 percent.
- Social losing value for
retailers: Social referral traffic will generate 11 percent
less RPV compared to Q4 2016. It is the only marketing channel to
see a decline in RPV, despite the increase in referral traffic
coming from social. Adobe attributes this to consumers’ weakening
trust in social networks. Shoppers are also expected to consult
social media sites 25 percent less for gift ideas this year.
Methodology
Adobe leverages Adobe Sensei, Adobe’s artificial intelligence
and machine learning technology, to identify retail insights from
trillions of data points that flow through Adobe Analytics and
Magento Commerce Cloud, part of Adobe Experience Cloud. Adobe
Analytics analyzes one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 55
million SKUs and 80 of the largest 100 U.S. web retailers*** – more
than any other technology company.
Only Adobe’s analysis spans large, medium and small retailers
across over 50 merchandise categories, powered by Magento Commerce
Cloud, to provide the industry’s most accurate view of online
shopping in the U.S. Adobe Experience Cloud manages more than 200
trillion data transactions annually. Companion research is based on
a survey of over 1,000 U.S. consumers in October 2018.
Helpful Links
- Adobe Analytics’ 2018 Holiday Shopping
Predictions full report
- Supporting CMO.com article
About Adobe
Adobe is changing the world through digital experiences. For
more information, visit www.adobe.com.
*Based on NRF’s 2018 overall retail sales forecast; assumes
overall retail grows at the midpoint of the NRF’s range of growth
forecasts (4.55 percent)
**Large retailers defined as being among the top 25% of
retailers
***Based on the top 100 retailers in the Internet Retailer 2018
top 500 eGuide
© 2018 Adobe. All rights reserved. Adobe and the Adobe logo are
either registered trademarks or trademarks of Adobe in the United
States and/or other countries. All other trademarks are the
property of their respective owners.
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AdobeMelissa Chanslor,
408-832-5489Chanslor@adobe.comorAdobeKevin Fu,
415-832-2266kfu@adobe.com
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