Why the Google Case May Be Too Late to Matter Much
July 18 2018 - 7:52PM
Dow Jones News
By Sam Schechner
The European Union's $5 billion antitrust action against
Alphabet Inc.'s Google, while historic, ultimately may not prove
too onerous.
The reason: Even if Google loses its appeals, novel antitrust
cases in the tech sector can take so long that by the time they are
decided, the alleged monopolist may already be entrenched, or the
entire market has already moved on.
"There is no way antitrust can keep up with technology," said
Randal C. Picker, an antitrust expert at the University of Chicago
Law School. "Neither private firms nor the government know what's
going to be the next great thing."
The EU's executive arm on Wednesday ruled Google for years
abused the dominance of its Android operating system for mobile
devices to help expand its dominant -- and lucrative -- search
business from desktops onto smartphones. Google denied the EU's
contentions.
The EU ordered Google to rip up agreements with phone makers and
telecom firms that Brussels said gave them little choice but to
pre-install Google's Chrome web browser and search engine. Those
charges and changes take aim at the fastest-growing part of
Google's online-advertising business: search ads on mobile
phones.
Rivals hope that the decision will help level the playing field
for competitors. Antitrust experts and economists, on the other
hand, say it will likely prove of limited help to upstart search
engines and web browsers, mainly because of the popularity and
dominance of Google products.
"The main flaw of this decision is that it's so many years late.
It has allowed Google to use an illegal practice to become
dominant," said Nicholas Economides, an economics professor at New
York University Stern School of Business.
The EU decision will likely hurt Alphabet's earnings. Analysts
for JPMorgan predicted Wednesday that Alphabet will take a charge
related to the fine, which will drag down its second-quarter
earnings per share by 75%.
But the bank is shrugging that off as in line with expectations.
It said the EU's remedies should have a limited impact on market
share and revenue going forward.
There is precedent for the ambivalence.
Microsoft Corp., for instance, wrangled with the EU for the
better part of a decade. While some experts say the battle changed
Microsoft's corporate culture to make it too cautious, others say
the EU's remedies in themselves didn't have much direct impact. In
one case, the EU ordered Microsoft to sell a version of its Windows
operating system for desktops without Microsoft's own media player
bundled in. What slammed Microsoft, though, was the mobile
revolution that shifted internet usage to mobile phones.
Intel Corp. for its part was fined EUR1.06 billion ($1.2
billion) in 2009 for seeking to squeeze out a rival, Advanced Micro
Devices Inc., from the market for computer chips. But by the time
Intel was forced to implement remedies -- which the EU's top court
has since said should be reviewed -- it was too late for AMD, which
had moved in 2008 to divest its chip-manufacturing arm.
More recently, the EU fined Google EUR2.4 billion for abusing
the dominance of its search engine to favor its own
product-advertising service. Google is appealing but still had to
implement the EU's order to treat rival product-ad services "no
less favorably" than its own. It created an auction mechanism for
them to bid against Google for spots on top of search pages.
Despite that ruling, rivals, including Kelkoo Group Ltd. and
Compare Group BV, have said they still struggle to get products
listed on the first page of Google's search results and get little
traffic from Google to their own sites. Google says it has followed
letter and spirit of the EU decision.
EU competition chief Margrethe Vestager last month defended the
remedy before the European Parliament, saying rival
price-comparison sites were appearing in one in three
product-search results on Google, compared with 15% back in March.
"It is still not many, but it is many more," she said.
There is anecdotal evidence that antitrust remedies can have an
impact -- if they are harsher. In Russia, for instance, search firm
Yandex complained to the country's competition regulator about
similar Android practices to those in the EU case. Last spring,
Google agreed to ask all Android users to select a default search
engine from a rotating list -- which Yandex says boosted its share
of mobile searches in Russia by about 10 percentage points to
49%.
But the EU didn't make any similarly specific stipulation about
how Google must comply with its order. And it has so far resisted
calls from some of Google's most strident critics that the company
should be broken up.
Rival search engines and browser companies were supportive of
the ruling on Wednesday but not necessarily bullish on the idea
that much would change for them when it comes to competing with
Google.
Casey Oppenheim, co-founder of privacy firm Disconnect, which
was a complainant in the EU case, said it might be too late for the
remedies to make much difference. "Changing search and browsing
behavior is very difficult," he said.
Write to Sam Schechner at sam.schechner@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 18, 2018 19:37 ET (23:37 GMT)
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