Comcast's Pursuit of Fox Just Got Tougher
July 13 2018 - 4:00PM
Dow Jones News
By Shalini Ramachandran
Comcast Corp.'s bid for 21st Century Fox hit a setback after the
Justice Department said Thursday it would appeal a federal judge's
decision to bless a merger of AT&T Inc. and Time Warner
Inc.
Comcast had used the earlier ruling to rebut concerns from Fox
that its bid would face regulatory risk. AT&T's deal for Time
Warner married a company primarily focused on distributing content
with one that produced it, just like Comcast's bid for Fox. Comcast
made its $65 billion offer for Fox a day after the ruling last
month.
The government's appeal of that earlier decision could weaken
Comcast's position in the eyes of Fox's board as the cable giant
battles with Walt Disney Co. over Fox. Disney followed Comcast by
raising its offer to purchase most of Fox's assets to more than
$71.3 billion.
Comcast executives believe that the Justice Department is likely
to lose its appeal given the strong wording of the prior decision
and industry precedents, including Comcast's own 2011 acquisition
of NBCUniversal, people familiar with their thinking said. However,
the appeal could push Comcast to narrow its focus to one of the
main prizes in the Fox chase: European pay-TV operator Sky PLC.
Smead Capital Management, a long-term investor in both Disney
and Comcast, believes Disney is likely going to end up as the
winner of the Fox assets. "We like the deal for Disney. We liked it
for Comcast as well, but we need Comcast to be reasonable and
rational in what they pay, " said Tony Scherrer, director of
research at Smead.
Other personal dynamics are at play. Fox Executive Chairman
Rupert Murdoch and his sons view Comcast with wariness after years
of tough dealings with the cable giant and would prefer to own
stock in a combined Disney-Fox, The Wall Street Journal has
previously reported.
"This is a clear gift to Disney," wrote Craig Moffett, analyst
at MoffettNathanson LLC, in a research note Thursday after the
Justice Department filed its appeal. "Fox's board has been looking
for a justifiable reason to choose Disney over Comcast."
Comcast executives believe their situation is distinct from
AT&T's because the phone giant operates nationwide as a
wireless carrier and satellite TV provider through DirecTV, while
Comcast, though large, still only operates in some regions of the
country, the people said.
Fox has put up for sale entertainment properties including its
Hollywood movie and TV studio, some cable channels and regional
sports networks, as well as a stake in streaming service Hulu. That
deal also would include its 39% stake in Sky and other
international assets.
Already Disney had a leg up. Last month, the media giant won the
Justice Department's approval for its Fox deal on the condition it
jettisons Fox's 22 regional sports networks. Some in the Comcast
camp were surprised at how fast Disney won regulatory approval for
its Fox deal, given that the two compete in similar industries like
TV and filmmaking, the people said.
Comcast's advances on Sky could continue to hobble Disney's
pursuit of Fox. Earlier this week, Comcast raised its offer for Sky
to GBP14.75 per share, valuing the company at $34 billion. That is
a 5% premium to an offer Fox, which had been seeking to consolidate
ownership, announced earlier Wednesday. It is 18% above Comcast's
earlier bid.
The role of the U.K. Takeover Panel, a regulatory body that
polices corporate deal making, has created an unusual situation
where as Disney and Comcast bid up Fox's assets, the implied value
of Sky also rises, forcing the two sides to raise their bids for
Sky. Comcast is loath to bid against itself, the people said.
Depending on how the auction for Sky plays out, Comcast could
decide to focus its efforts on the European operator and drop its
pursuit of Fox's assets, people familiar with the matter said. Back
at home, the cable giant hasn't yet topped Disney's latest bid, a
sign some Wall Street analysts took to suggest that Comcast is
hinting to Disney that it would be willing to split up the assets,
taking home Sky and leaving Disney with the other operations.
But BTIG analyst Richard Greenfield in a note earlier this week
said Disney and Comcast aren't allowed to talk to each other and a
splitting-the-baby scenario may not be in the best interests of Fox
and Sky's public shareholders. Moreover, Disney has talked up the
value of Sky for its plans to challenge Netflix Inc. globally.
"Honestly, it feels as if Comcast could now come away with
nothing, beyond an even more fractured relationship with one of
their most important programming partners in Disney," Mr.
Greenfield wrote.
Write to Shalini Ramachandran at
shalini.ramachandran@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 13, 2018 15:45 ET (19:45 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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