Retail investors were net buyers in June and
for the first half of the year
In June 2018, the Investor Movement Index® rose to 5.45 as
retail investors gradually increased their equity exposure
throughout the first six months of 2018, TD Ameritrade, Inc.1
announced today. The Investor Movement Index, or the IMXSM, is a
proprietary, behavior-based index created by TD Ameritrade that
aggregates Main Street investor positions and activity to measure
what investors actually were doing and how they were positioned in
the markets.
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TD Ameritrade June 2018 Investor Movement
Index (Graphic: TD Ameritrade).
June IMX
The June 2018 Investor Movement Index for the four weeks ended
June 29, 2018 reveals:
- Reading: 5.45 (compared to 5.06 in
May)
- Trend direction: Positive
- Trend length: 2 month
- Score relative to historic ranges:
Moderately Low
U.S. markets ended June on a positive note with the Nasdaq
Composite increasing a percent and the Russell 2000 reaching
all-time highs. TD Ameritrade clients appeared to use volatility
during the month as a reason to increase their overall equity
exposure. As a result, investors’ net buying activity prompted the
June IMX reading to jump more than seven percent from the prior
month.
TD Ameritrade clients were net buyers during the June IMX
period. Top buys included:
- AT&T Inc. (T), after receiving
approval for its acquisition of Time Warner Inc.
- iQIYI, Inc. (IQ) and Micron Technology,
Inc. (MU), following reports of proposed rules that would limit
Chinese investments in certain U.S. tech firms.
- Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), after its stock
price reached an all-time-high.
- salesforce.com, inc. (CRM), following
an analyst upgrade and the announcement of new innovations to
deliver a more personalized customer experience.
Despite being net buyers, TD Ameritrade clients found equities
to sell during the period, including:
- Chesapeake Energy Corporation (CHK) and
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM), which both traded higher on the back
of a three-and-a-half year high in crude oil prices.
- General Motors Company (GM), following
the announcement that SoftBank Vision Fund committed to invest over
$2 billion into GM’s autonomous driving program.
- Facebook, Inc. (FB), for the fifth
month in a row after the stock reached an all-time high during the
period.
- Chip-maker Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
(AMD), after reaching a 52-week high early in the period.
As July progresses, retail investors will likely remain focused
on trade tensions between the U.S. and key global trading partners.
The large concern appears to be over how trade will impact economic
growth. Earnings season will also begin with big banks reporting
their earnings in mid-July, with investors most likely looking at
company performance and CEO statements.
2018 Mid-Year Review
Despite optimism surrounding the financial sector at the start
of 2018, the first half of the year proved to be more challenging
than expected. A flattening yield curve, slower global growth, and
tensions between the U.S. and key trading partners created
pressures that injected more volatility into the markets. In early
2018, the equity market saw its first market correction in over two
years.
After ending 2017 at all-time highs, the IMX recorded its
largest monthly decrease ever in February – more than 20 percent –
after the markets entered correction territory. The market selloff
led TD Ameritrade to record its highest trading day of the year on
February 5. On that date, the S&P 500 was down 4.1 percent and
the Nasdaq was down 3.8 percent.
“TD Ameritrade clients reduced their overall exposure to equity
markets the first four months of the year, but started to dial-up
exposure once again in May and June,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market
strategist at TD Ameritrade. “This gives us a sense that although
the market has been back-and-forth, clients may be feeling better
heading into the end of the year and may continue to increase
exposure in a very measured fashion.”
TD Ameritrade clients were net buyers in the first half of 2018,
increasing their equity positions during that period. The top five
popular buys for the first half of 2018 were:
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
- AT&T Inc. (T)
- Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)
- Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)
- General Electric Company (GE)
The top five popular sells for the first half of 2018 were:
- Facebook, Inc. (FB)
- Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)
- ConocoPhillips (COP)
- Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)
The five most widely held stocks for the first half of 2018
were:
- Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- General Electric Company (GE)
- AT&T Inc. (T)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
- Ford Motor Company (F)
“Based on the first six months of the year, it would be hard to
believe that volatility wouldn’t stay elevated as compared to
2017,” said Kinahan. “Interest rates remain a large question mark
as tariff talks have become a big factor in the markets over the
last few months, the 10-year yield is still not above three percent
like many anticipated, and midterm elections are coming up this
fall.”
About the IMX
The IMX value is calculated based on a complex proprietary
formula. Each month, TD Ameritrade pulls a sample from its client
base of more than 11 million funded accounts, which includes all
accounts that completed a trade in the past month. The holdings and
positions of this statistically significant sample are evaluated to
calculate individual scores, and the median of those scores
represents the monthly IMX.
For more information on the Investor Movement Index, including
historical IMX data going back to January 2010; to view the full
report from June 2018; or to sign up for future IMX news alerts,
please visit www.tdameritrade.com/IMX. Additionally, TD Ameritrade
clients can chart the IMX using the symbol $IMX in either the
thinkorswim® or TD Ameritrade Mobile Trader platforms.
Inclusion of specific security names in this commentary does not
constitute a recommendation from TD Ameritrade to buy, sell, or
hold.
Past performance of a security, strategy, or index is no
guarantee of future results or investment success.
Historical data should not be used alone when making investment
decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider
your individual financial position and goals before making an
independent investment decision.
The IMX is not a tradable index. The IMX should not be used as
an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or
financial performance for TD Ameritrade.
For the latest TD Ameritrade news and information, follow the
company on Twitter, @TDAmeritradePR.
Source: TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation
About TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation
TD Ameritrade provides investing services and education to more
than 11 million client accounts totaling approximately $1.2
trillion in assets, and custodial services to more than 6,000
registered investment advisors. We are a leader in U.S. retail
trading, executing an average of more than 940,000 trades per day
for our clients, nearly a quarter of which come from mobile
devices. We have a proud history of innovation, dating back to our
start in 1975, and today our team of 10,000-strong is committed to
carrying it forward. Together, we are leveraging the latest in
cutting edge technologies and one-on-one client care to transform
lives, and investing, for the better. Learn more by visiting TD
Ameritrade’s newsroom at www.amtd.com, or read our stories at Fresh
Accounts.
1TD Ameritrade, Inc. is a broker-dealer subsidiary of TD
Ameritrade Holding Corporation (Nasdaq: AMTD). Brokerage services
provided by TD Ameritrade, Inc., member FINRA
(www.FINRA.org)/SIPC (www.SIPC.org).
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180709005585/en/
TD Ameritrade Holding CorporationFor Media:Becky Niiya,
402-574-6652Communications & Public
Affairsbecky.niiya@tdameritrade.com@TDAmeritradePRorFor
Investors:Jeff Goeser, 402-597-8464Investor
Relationsjeffrey.goeser@tdameritrade.com
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