Markets Soothed by North Korean Response to Canceled Summit
May 25 2018 - 6:03AM
Dow Jones News
By Jon Sindreu
-- Italian government bonds continue to sell off
-- Treasury yields edge down further below the 3% mark
-- Oil prices down
Stocks recovered Friday after North Korea's measured response to
the U.S. cancellation of a landmark summit.
But political risk was worrying investors elsewhere, with yields
on the 10-year Italian government-bond rising to their highest
level since 2014, with the spread versus German debt going above 2
percentage points for the first time since June 2017 -- a
reflection of worries about the new Italian antiestablishment
government.
"We are avoiding Italian risk because there's a contagion fee
there," said Angus Sippe, a fund manager at Schroders, an asset
manager with about $600 billion under management. "In the
[eurozone] periphery, you clearly see political risk."
The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.5% in early European trade, as
futures pointed to 0.2% and 0.3% opening gains for the S&P 500
and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, respectively. In Asia,
Chinese and South Korean indexes edged down, and Japan's Nikkei
Stock Average closed up 0.1%.
Equity markets around the world had closed broadly down Thursday
after President Donald Trump called off a much-awaited summit
between Washington and Pyongyang citing "open hostility" from North
Korea, just as the Commerce Department said the U.S. administration
was considering new tariffs on vehicles and auto-parts imports.
But North Korea's response was softer than many analysts were
expecting, with officials saying in a statement they remained
willing "to sit down face-to-face with the U.S. and resolve issues
anytime and in any format."
Money managers have started to pay much closer attention to a
raft of geopolitical concerns over the past few weeks -- after
brushing them off earlier in the year -- including tensions between
the U.S. and Korea, the potential of a U.S.-China trade war and
developments in Italy once again testing the resilience of the
eurozone.
"The emerging policy of Italy's new government is unlikely to
trigger a new sovereign debt crisis. But it does highlight once
again the fundamental differences in thinking on economic policy
within the euro area," Ralph Solveen, an economist at German lender
Commerzbank AG, told clients in a research note Friday.
Italy's FTSE MIB was flat on the day, even as broader European
stocks powered ahead. Italian banks like Banco BPM SpA, Unione di
Banche Italiane SpA and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA led losses in
Europe.
But many investors remain convinced that these rekindled
tensions are driven by a new aggressive negotiating style favored
by upstart politicians -- including Mr. Trump -- but that they are
unlikely to cause disruption in the longer term.
"What I have been seeing for the past 6 months is that there are
a lot more opportunities than there was last year, there's just
more stuff happening," said Christian Ryther, manager of Curreen
Capital Management, who has been adding risk to his portfolio.
So far, despite some wobbles, the S&P 500 is up 0.6% on the
week and 3% on the month.
"I think you'd be manic if you tried to buy things based on
what's tweeted out all time," said Sandy Villere, manager of the
Villere Balanced Fund, who believes the true focus remains the
stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields.
This is "going to be good for the small-caps rather than the
multinationals with a lot of exports," Mr. Villere added.
The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a
basket of currencies, was broadly unchanged Friday, while 10-year
Treasury yields edged down to 2.971% -- further below the 3% mark
-- from 2.981% Thursday.
In commodities, Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.7%
to $77.97 a barrel after Russian officials said large oil producers
could relax global production caps.
In currencies, the Turkish lira was down 0.4% against the
dollar, a further sign that the central bank's recent emergency
measures, including an interest-rate rise and moves to help
exporters repay dollar-denominated loans, haven't been able to
dispel investors' concerns.
Write to Jon Sindreu at jon.sindreu@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 25, 2018 05:48 ET (09:48 GMT)
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