Even in Staid Germany, Protest Parties Poised to Gain Ground
September 21 2017 - 4:54PM
Dow Jones News
By Marcus Walker
Germany's seemingly predictable election campaign may well have
a twist in its tail.
If the last opinion polls before Sunday's parliamentary
elections are a guide, the crumbling of Europe's old political
order is affecting even Germany, the continent's bastion of
stability.
Support for Germany's two major parties could fall below 60%
combined, while protest parties of the far right and far left could
win 20% of the vote between them, a pattern of polls suggests.
Politics in Germany remain rather staid compared with many other
European countries. Victory for Chancellor Angela Merkel's
conservative Christian Democrats looks inevitable, even if they win
fewer votes than four years ago. The anti-immigration Alternative
for Germany, which could win over 10% according to surveys, remains
smaller than its far-right peers in neighboring France or
Austria.
In swaths of Continental Europe, the established center-right
and center-left parties have suffered far more dramatic collapses,
while populist movements from the nationalist right to the
anticapitalist left have become strong enough to aspire to
power.
Germany is unique. Its booming economy barely felt the
eurozone's debt crisis. Unemployment is below 4%, compared with
around 9% overall in the 19-country eurozone. In an age of
international rage against incumbents, around two-thirds of Germans
say they're satisfied with Ms. Merkel. More broadly, the country's
postwar political culture and institutions strongly favor moderate,
mainstream parties over radicals.
Yet even in Germany, the grip of center-right Christian
Democrats and center-left Social Democrats is weakening. When Ms.
Merkel retires, or the economic cycle turns, the trend could
accelerate.
The deepest reason for the fragmentation of Europe's politics is
that societies have become more complex. Old center-left parties
were rooted in organized labor, old center-right parties in
churches. Both have declined. Catchall policy programs that used to
cater to nearly half of the electorate now appeal to only a third
or a quarter. Social media have broadened the reach of
anti-mainstream messages.
Another factor is that globalization has reduced the ability of
national governments to manage some of the most potent electoral
issues, from economic crises to migration.
"Voters still expect solutions from their government, but that's
no longer always possible," says Peter Filzmaier, political
scientist at Austria's Danube University Krems. "All parties, once
in government, are doomed to lose the expectations game."
The almost inexorable result is that new parties cater to
dissatisfied segments of the electorate -- including populist
movements that attack old elites and offer simple fixes. Over time,
more small parties have won a place in Germany's federal
parliament, the Bundestag. On Sunday the AfD is set to take its
place alongside the Left, the Greens and the tax-cutting Liberals,
all of whom are expected to win around 8% to 12%.
The rise of Germany's political fringes also reflects Ms.
Merkel's weaknesses, however. Her consensus-seeking style has
erased policy differences between her Christian Democrats and other
mainstream parties -- to the frustration of many of her
conservative colleagues. She could form her next coalition
government with any of the other moderate parties, voters know.
That means Germans who truly dislike the chancellor have only the
radical AfD or the Left to turn to.
Her measured, low-key rhetoric also makes it hard for her to
appeal to angry or fearful voters, many observers note.
"In the past, Germany had political leaders who could speak to
more radical groups of voters and their concerns, including with
strong rhetoric and attacks," says Tilman Mayer, politics professor
at Bonn University, naming conservatives Helmut Kohl and
Franz-Josef Strauss and the Social Democrat Willy Brandt. "This is
temperamentally not Merkel's thing, and that presents an
opportunity for the extremes."
The AfD's challenge to German postwar taboos -- it wants Germans
to feel less guilt and more pride about the country's history,
including the Third Reich -- is likely to prompt much
soul-searching in Germany's establishment. The upstart party is
less popular than in 2016, when the migration crisis that fueled
its rise was more intense. But the major parties' lackluster
election campaign, and the lack of disagreements between them, has
boosted the AfD in the past month.
Other mainstream leaders in Europe's big year of elections have
made more effort than Ms. Merkel to style themselves as outsiders
to the establishment, or to reach out to voters tempted by
populism.
In Austria, 31-year-old conservative leader Sebastian Kurz is
the favorite to win elections in October thanks to a highly
personalized campaign, and a tough immigration stance, that are
helping to win back voters from far-right populists. Dutch Prime
Minister Mark Rutte defeated a far-right challenge this spring by
adopting tough language on Muslim immigrants who, he suggested,
weren't adapting enough to Dutch values. France's new president,
Emmanuel Macron, won by launching his own movement and, while
advocating business-friendly economic reforms, also promising a
dose of economic protectionism to defuse anxiety about
globalization.
The greater flexibility of such leaders in Germany's neighbors
reflects the fact that they are under greater pressure from
antiestablishment insurgents.
A similar test could face Ms. Merkel's successors.
Write to Marcus Walker at marcus.walker@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 21, 2017 16:39 ET (20:39 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.