Treasurys Retreat on Profit-Taking, Strong Housing Data
March 23 2017 - 11:38AM
Dow Jones News
By Min Zeng
The U.S. government bond market pulled back Thursday, driven by
some profit-taking following the biggest four-day price gains since
June ahead of a planned House vote on the health-care bill.
A strong housing report Thursday also weighed on bond prices.
New home sales rose by 6.1% last month compared with a 1.4% gain
forecast by economists, a positive sign for the U.S. economy.
In recent trading, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury
note was 2.409%, according to Tradeweb. The yield was 2.398%
Wednesday, the lowest close since the end of February. Yields rise
as bond prices fall.
Uncertainty over the passage of the health-care bill rattled the
Trump trade earlier this week, causing investors to dial back
exposure to riskier assets and embrace haven bonds. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average on Tuesday logged the biggest one-day selloff
since September while Treasury bond yields sank.
Since President Donald Trump's win in November, buying stocks
and the dollar while selling Treasurys have been the popular trades
for investors to bet that fiscal stimulus via tax cuts and large
infrastructure spending will boost growth and inflation.
"The fear is if this doesn't pass, then getting tax reform and
infrastructure spending done will be very difficult," said Thomas
Roth, executive director in the rates trading group at MUFG
Securities Americas Inc.
In this case, "all the high hopes of pulling the economy out of
the low growth mode go away," which would boost demand for
Treasurys relative to riskier assets, he said.
Wagers on higher bond yields, or shorts, are prone to further
pullback if the Trump trades suffer fresh setback, traders say.
Unwinding shorts require investors and traders to return to the
bond market as a buyer, driving yields lower. When short-covering
trades intensify, that would send yields down sharply, warn
analysts.
Hedge funds and money managers accumulated a net $89 billion
worth of shorts for the week that ended March 14, via Treasury
futures, according to TD Securities. That was down from $93.9
billion a week ago. The net shorts reached $100.7 billion in early
January, the highest since 2008.
The 10-year yield has jumped more than 1 percentage point from
its record close low of 1.366% set last July, driven by an
improving global economic outlook, higher inflation, the prospect
of expansive U.S. fiscal policies and the Federal Reserve's plan to
raise short-term interest rates.
The yield rose above 2.6% last week and reached the highest
level since September 2014 as investors brought forward the Fed's
rate increase from June to this month. The Fed did act on March 15
but signaled a gradual path for further rate increases, which
deflated fears over a swift rise in yields and stoked demand for
bonds again.
Another support for Treasurys: U.S. bonds offer more appealing
yields than their peers in Japan and Europe. The yield premium
investors demanded to hold the 10-year Treasury note relative to
the German bund earlier this week fell to the lowest level since
November. A shrinking premium suggests some investors sold bunds to
buy Treasurys, highlighting the appeal of U.S. bonds in a low-yield
world.
Write to Min Zeng at min.zeng@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 23, 2017 11:23 ET (15:23 GMT)
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