MOSCOW—The U.S. and Russia struck a deal this month that
promised to test the boundaries of trust between Washington and
Moscow. Over a violent and tumultuous week in Syria, they couldn't
overcome the distrust and animosity dividing them.
Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov hoped a successful cease-fire in Syria could pave the
way toward joint military targeting against Islamist militants.
But just over a week ago, the U.S.-led coalition fighting
Islamic State mistakenly bombed Syrian army positions, inflicting
scores of casualties on government troops and prompting outrage in
Moscow. Two days later, a deadly airstrike on an aid convoy
delivering assistance to a rebel-held town escalated tensions, with
U.S. officials blaming Russia for the attack.
The cease-fire all but collapsed, scuttling hopes the two sides
would be able to cooperate in a meaningful away in fighting Islamic
State and other militant groups.
By Saturday, Mr. Kerry and foreign ministers from the U.K.,
France, Italy, Germany and the European Union issued a denunciation
of Russia's role in the escalating violence in Syria and said the
bombing of the humanitarian convoy and the offensive in eastern
Aleppo, among other actions, "blatantly contradicts Russia's claim
that it supports a diplomatic resolution."
Messrs. Kerry and Lavrov haven't spoken since Friday and have no
meetings planned, a State Department official said.
In Senate testimony on Thursday, Marine Corps Gen. Joe Dunford,
chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, made it clear the U.S.
didn't trust Moscow. "I do not believe it would be a good idea to
share intelligence with the Russians," he said.
Russian military insiders also scoffed at Mr. Kerry's proposal
to ground all aircraft in northern Syria to allow shipments of
humanitarian aid.
"They are saying, 'Let's have a no-fly zone, and that's our main
weapon there,'" said Oleg Kulakov, a retired Russian colonel,
referring to Russian air power. "Are you kidding? That means we
give up to Daesh [Islamic State]."
The two countries had years of mutual suspicion to overcome.
U.S.-Russia relations were at post-Cold War lows. Washington and
its allies had slapped sanctions on Moscow after the Ukraine crisis
and Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014.
The U.S.-Russia relationship is complex. For instance, the U.S.
believes the Kremlin played a constructive role in the move to
increase international sanctions on Iran during President Barack
Obama's first term and in pressuring Tehran to accept a final
nuclear agreement last year. In Afghanistan, Washington and Moscow
cooperated in moving supplies to support the U.S. and allied war
efforts there.
At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin has regularly
worked to counter U.S. interests and check American power, U.S.
officials say.
Cold War-style rhetoric has heightened in recent weeks, with
U.S. officials claiming Russian connections to the hacking of
Democratic Party files. While Mr. Putin denies his country's
involvement, the cyberattack has raised the specter of Russian
interference in a U.S. presidential election.
Defense Secretary Ash Carter has been wary of coordinating and
sharing intelligence with the Russians over Syria, echoing many
senior officers' concerns, according to U.S. military
officials.
Another apparent casualty is the amity between Messrs. Kerry and
Lavrov, who engaged in months of diplomacy on Syria ahead of the
cease-fire deal. In appearances at the United Nations last week,
each blamed the other for the collapsing Syria peace efforts.
Mr. Lavrov said "foreign military interventions"â "code for U.S.
actionsâ "were to blame for the chaos in the Mideast. Mr. Kerry
said his Russian counterpart lived in a "parallel universe,"
referring to Russia's reflexive deployment of spin and denial
following the bombing of the aid convoy.
Both sides would have needed to overcome serious distrust to set
up joint operations against Islamist groups. Both sides worry the
exchange of military information—as opposed to "deconflicting"
operations to avoid accidents—presents serious intelligence
risks.
Direct coordination of military operations with Russia would be
"deeply counterproductive" to U.S. national-security interests, in
part because of the risk the U.S. would reveal sensitive
intelligence-collection capabilities, said Chris Harmer, senior
naval analyst for the Institute for the Study of War in
Washington.
Before the outright collapse of the cease-fire, Ruslan Pukhov,
director of the Moscow-based think tank CAST, said he was
optimistic the two sides could work together.
"If there is goodwill, we can always cooperate," he said. But,
he added, "If there is no goodwill, we can always find a reason not
to cooperate."
Jay Solomon, Felicia Schwartz and Gordon Lubold contributed to
this article.
Write to Nathan Hodge at nathan.hodge@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 25, 2016 21:55 ET (01:55 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2016 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.