Fannie Mae (QB) (FNMAH) Quote

Sadly it's looking more like "Cold Shower Hour."

Bessent "Shocked" By Scale Of Fraud Already Uncovered By DOGE, Mocks MSM's Biden "Vibecession" Narrative

by Tyler Durden - Monday, Mar 03, 2025 - 05:10 AM

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bessent-shocked-scale-fraud-already-uncovered-doge-mocks-msms-biden-vibecession-narrative

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did the mainstream media press tour this weekend, clarifying two critical bullshit talking points to the propagandists: first, DOGE is doing a good job; and second, the US economy faces some significant headwinds as a hangover from 'Bidenomics' spendfest.

Minute 12:45 “Mortgage rates have come down and the spread on mortgages

versus treasuries has come down since November, which I think indicative of

some of the things that we’re gonna do on financial deregulation.”

https://bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-02-28/treasury-sec-bessent-on-zelenskiy-tariffs-inflation-video $FNMA #FANNIEGATE RECAP AND RELEASE

Anyone seen a date on the Pulte vote? I haven't found anything. Just curious is all.

What are they at real time?

FNMA/FMCC
OOOH NOOOOOOOOOOO
They's fallin' like rocks! !

I'm expecting a massive pop today during power hour.  A Big Gulp from 7 Eleven that is.

I take Secretary Turner at his word which as the article says does not make sense. In only makes sense if he intends to work closely with soon to be Director Pulte. I expect a triad of Senator Scott, Secretary Turner and Director Pulte all working together on an aggressive MAGA Housing Policy to lower mortgage rates and increase Housing Supply. Probably wrong but that is my impression - what else does " They want me to quarterback " mean? - this implies that there is a plan.

Fnma waiting for Pulte to be confirmed.
Loafers are fine and if they weren’t wtf is it to you hiding behind a keyboard.
Your homophobic comment leads me believe you’re a little light between the ears.

Bessent seems like a good person.

Can’t say the same about you.
Fnma

No - actually I think it is exactly the opposite. I could be wrong but look at how DOGE identified the CFPB for downsizing and hasnt even mentioned the FHFA to the best of my knowledge. It seems to me that EXIT is one component of a MAGA Housing Program where HUD and the FHFA will work together to lower mortgage and housing costs. Part of this will include the EXIT of the GSEs to monetize the UST stake but also to refocus the GSEs on housing initiatives voluntarily working with HUD and the FHFA to promote Housing goals. I think Pulte really believes he can make a difference and that Secretary Turner working with Senator Scott can do the same

HOT HOT HOT
Quarterbacking GSE Reform: The HUD Secretary?

dhol...@imfpubs.com

Shortly after his confirmation as secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Scott Turner surprised the mortgage industry by saying he would “quarterback” the process of releasing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship.

The reason for the surprise: As most industry executives know, HUD has no oversight authority whatsoever over the GSEs or their regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Since then, Democratic members of the Senate Banking Committee have written Turner seeking more details about his proposed role in reprivatizing the two mortgage giants. One basic question asked: “Will HUD, and you as HUD Secretary, be the quarterback of any effort to make changes to Fannie and Freddie?”

Meanwhile, in the interest of transparency, the Democrats asked the HUD secretary if he would commit to ensuring that the hedge funds and other wealthy investors speculating in GSE stocks don’t have an opportunity to unduly influence the process for GSE reform.

For more on the story, see the new edition of Inside The GSEs, now available online.

Are you a little light in the loafers too?

Is it just me or do you, among others, sense there is just no interest from the movers and shakers about the FHFA position?

Scott Turner HUD Hearing was Jan 16th and he was confirmed on Feb 5th. We may have a USG shutdown and Easter to work around if it gets delayed. Could be as early as March 19th so April 1 could be conservative estimate which would be a great outcome!

Here is the Scott Turner timeline

Jan 16th Hearing
Jan 23rd Voted out of Committee 13-11
Feb 5th Confirmed.

Pulte ( assuming same timeline)

Feb 27 Hearing
March 6th Committee Vote
March 19th Confirmation.

Lighten up people! Not a damn thing is going on. Wash, rinse, repeat...wash, rinse, repeat. One of these days, perhaps, a catalyst will emerge.

"If everyone stays mum, expect to be in the 5,6,7 dollar range"

Forever?

Donkey. Fnma
Did ya stick your shoe up your kazoo?

"the final quote above from Bessent signals there IS A NEW ERA at Treasury "

First time, in the history of the country, that a male "wife" has been in charge of the Treasury so yes, it is a new and disturbing era.

when can we expect pullute to be confirmed?

"I think the weighted likelihood IS a higher share price than today,"

You must be one of dem thar smart boys I hears bout when I comes down offen the mountain and goes to town. I ain't never seed one live before.

I like that. You think the worst case is a small premium for common shares from here followed by the “no deal” option. Honestly no deal is nearly impossible with the amount of cash they have in reserve. I don’t think it’s possible they maximize their share count when they’d have to attempt to unwind it and will find an incredibly soft market for THAT many shares below $8 valuation. It’s best for the government to align with shareholders and cancel either Senior Ps or the warrants. I see scenarios where share price once uplisted are high enough there would be less dilution converting seniors than exercising warrants. I’d take 60% dilution over 80% every day of the week.

I am very comfortable waiting for Pulte confirmation and to see where we go from there. I see things moving quickly.

"Shorties look like they are smart, but in fact they are average Joes."

I don't know about that. Those with margin accounts have made tons and tons of money with Fannie and Freddie over the years. I don't short but have seen the opportunity hundreds of times over the years.

"Could turn the area inside the Beltway into a retirement community since there will be be no jobs. No one has ever put it into productive use anyway."

LOL! Not in modern times! That's for sure.

Folks must be selling FNMAS to buy FNMA & FMCC today.

In B - current sharecount roughly 1.2b. With warrants exercised that goes to 5.8b. Sr pfd claim around $130b + 11b for Jr pfd. If assume both converted to common that's 141b. If converted at current share price that's 21b more shares for a total of just under 27b shares. Take a valuation of $200b-250b and divide by 27b shares gets you to $7.40-9.25/share. This is a super simplified version and obviously tons of factors involved (conversion price, notional converted, new equity, cap requirements, timing, etc). It's just meant to start to highlight how to go about scenario play to allow people to come up with their own risk and scenario adjusted average weighted share price.

Pulte hasn't even been voted on. Nothing happens until he's onboard and has some time to get his feet wet. We flounder until then.

This wont be a TA play.. IF it goes to 18 to 24, its because, there is some direction on cship exit..

If everyone stays mum, expect to be in the 5,6,7 dollar range

Agree

F and F have not followed the market for 15 years - or I would not have a huge write off a few years ago

F and have not followed the market or I would not have a HUGE and HUGER gain on the share I bought again at seriously low and lower prices

All during a period market was likely up double digit 13 of the 15 years

FHFA nominee tells Senate he favors reducing ‘useless’ regulations to promote affordable housing

Bill Pulte emphasized his family’s successful legacy in the mortgage industry during his confirmation hearing before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Development. The Trump administration’s pick to run the Federal Housing Finance Agency fielded questions about his plans for achieving his top priority, if confirmed – "to strengthen and safeguard the housing finance system."

Some form of GOV guarantee - last in a row of capital and capital and ? --- is likely needed to keep interest rates the same on mortgages - yet allow innovation

Nice
Solid way to think and lay it out

Please explain B --- as many suggest here that if Seniors are converted there are 100B shares of which we own 1B. Are you suggesting that those 100B (new shares) would sell at $7 -$9 to equal the PPS of our 1B ---- what is the EPS you are using and then PE multiplier

Thanks

Tomorrow will be an interesting day in the market if the 25% tariffs start on Canada and Mexico and 20% on China. Should be HUGE red if those come to pass. That said, FNMA doesn't seem to follow the market so who knows.

Fitch Rating Release - Post EXIT
\https://www.fitchratings.com/research/non-bank-financial-institutions/fannie-freddie-conservatorship-exit-would-not-be-immediate-ratings-catalyst-08-01-2025#:~:text=Fitch%20Ratings%2DNew%20York%2FChicago,own%2C%20according%20to%20Fitch%20Ratings.

Thanks Fully Diluted. This is why what Calabria and Dr Susan Wachter has publicly said is important to reiterate because they have pointed to the past where MBS spreads were less than they are now with publicly traded GSEs. The key is that the UST Backstop needs to stay in place post EXIT and with 2.5% of ERCF the Rating Agencies will give the GSE MBS an AA+ Rating. Fitch has already said this.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/non-bank-financial-institutions/fannie-freddie-conservatorship-exit-would-not-be-immediate-ratings-catalyst-08-01-2025#:~:text=Fitch%20Ratings%2DNew%20York%2FChicago,own%2C%20according%20to%20Fitch%20Ratings.

This is March - Now start marching
Fannie march to $7
Freddie march to $6
March

Yeah, he made Money Laundering legal in essence.

Scott Bessent announced some changes at Treasury yesterday, March 2, 2025, with respect to the "beneficial ownership information rule" associated with the Corporate Transparency Act ...
a federal law that requires certain businesses, primarily corporations and limited liability companies (LLCs), to file information about their beneficial owners with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), aiming to combat money laundering, terrorist financing, and other illicit activities by making it harder to hide ownership of companies involved in criminal activity
it will NO LONGER ENFORCE any penalties or fines against U.S. companies associated with failing to report beneficial ownership information as required by the Corporate Transparency Act they WILL still ENFORCE these rules on foreign companies
Today’s action is part of President Trump’s bold agenda to unleash American prosperity by reining in burdensome regulations, in particular for small businesses that are the backbone of the American economy
the final quote above from Bessent signals there IS A NEW ERA at Treasury ... if they are willing to deviate this far, especially regarding the FinCEN, in favor of giving American businesses the benefit of the doubt, and in the name of releasing burdensome regulation for American's and private business prosperity, AND with the GSE narrative change / release mantra building steam and support, Trump, Pulte, Bessent, and Turner may be slowly acquiring all the media outcry immunity, incentive, power, and authority to do much more positive things for shareholders ... we'll see

Oh, and finally, President Trump will be addressing a full session of Congress tomorrow, NEVER before has this occurred this early in a presidency. Incidentally, tomorrow is March 4th, the day the Constitution originally prescribed as Inauguration Day ... is this a sign? ... FDR was the last president inaugurated on March 4th ...

Good advice from Bill Ackman. I am three and out for the day.
https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1896388938656321690

Thanks Commander.

Good gains so far - must be some news
that is yet to be made public - LOAD UP

Hey Red, where have you been over the last decade? You a new player?

These Senators are empowered by the false narrative

surrounding Fannie, Freddie and the Conservatorship. They will be invalidated if the facts of the Conservatorship become widely known. Now the Twins have achieved some visibility and profile because of the run-up in price. If that elevated profile and interest could be used as a platform to tell the true story of the Conservatorship then these Senators will find themselves publicly on the wrong side of this deal.

"The truth will set you free" - John 8:32

Hi Guido,

thanks for the information.
The senators are not against a release of Fannie and Freddie. Here's what they write in their letter to HUD's Turner:
It is critical that any effort to reprivatize Fannie Mac and Freddie Mac does not result in windfalls for wealthy investors while raising housing costs for American families.
The senators know that there are people who benefit massively from a release. But they fear that mortgage rates will rise.
In this context, it becomes clear why both Bessent and Pulte repeatedly emphasize that their main focus is on ensuring that mortgage rates do not rise in the event of a release.

I think this letter is a real revelation.😎

nothing is an absolute here in the Twins saga IMO

Completely agree - I think you have to be on the extreme to be a pumper or basher - as its all just opinion. But its also the folks who obviously disagree with whatever is said - and label it lies, obfuscation, etc. no matter what. A lot of these folks don't even read what is written - and automatically go on the attack as that is what turns them on, I guess.

My own opinion re the stock price is not set in stone - but has never been extreme one way or the other - and I think my posts have reflected this. I am mostly JPS as I am too conservative to go all in on the common. But I am not overly risk averse and got into FNMA at an average below $2 - and am very happy with all my positions. As I have said, if the stockholders were fully restored to full ownership - which, again in my opinion has less than a snowball's chance - but not a zero chance - on a combined basis - we are talking $30B in earnings divided among 1.8B shares or $16.65/sh. So, to me, the folks advocating for $300/share (a P/E below 20) are not pumping - dreaming, yes; unrealistic under all the circumstance? Hell, yes. Going to happen? - no way Jose (again, just an opinion). But that is what the math would at least be now if the companies had remained unmolested 17 years ago.

As to a wipeout - the conditions are set up much more favorable for this - and with Elon running around looking under all the mattresses for money - it's getting a little scary. But, again, my opinion, given all the circumstances and what has happened over the last 17 years and, especially since the election - snowball's chance. Not zero chance - and I have been a buyer of more JPS since about a month before the debate when it became obvious that there was going to be a change of horses. I wish, in retrospect, that some of those recent buys would have been more common shares, but it is what it is, and I am satisfied with where I sit.

I am paying close attention to what John Paulson, Bill Ackman, and, yes, Mark Calabria, are saying. What Bessent and Pulte say is important also - but statements like "we intend to release them" are not all that helpful at this point as - we all got the gist of that. I do expect the release to be in the form of an EO - short on detail - but hoping it includes a target date. When the smoke clears - what the price will be is the issue - and, at this point anything is possible - not probable, but possible. So I would not be too dismissive of other posters on this board. I try not to be - but, as you know, its hard sometimes.

Nats

The worst of worst.
Small minority of Senators,
I have a feeling any legislation regarding the GSE's release will have bipartisan support. BTW I don't see Nancy on that list. Too much opportunity for her to make some money in the release?...

Sent email to Craig Phillips this weekend using the

Freddie Mac Contact form on their website ....

asked him about UPLIST as well as EXIT Plans ...

will post any reply I get ...

https://www.freddiemac.com/about/contact-us#panelh1

Am I the only one Skeerd? Only 10 sheers traded pre-market...Skeery

I have listed the Senators who signed the letter sent to Scott Turner. They're opposed to Fannie Mae being released.

https://x.com/GuidoPerei/status/1896355772113850757

Well there are many new posters for sure. I like to think it's because people are learning about it but maybe I'm just being optimistic. I sure have been spreading the word on boards.