Wheat Rises Further on Russia-Ukraine Tensions - Daily Grain Highlights
January 25 2022 - 3:46PM
Dow Jones News
By Kirk Maltais
--Wheat for March delivery rose 2.2% to $8.18 a bushel on the
Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday as the U.S. and NATO took further
steps to prepare for a potential conflict at the Russia-Ukraine
border.
--Soybeans for March delivery rose 0.3% to $14.07 1/4 a
bushel.
--Corn for March delivery fell 0.2% to $6.20 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Making Preparations: Wheat futures on the CBOT continued to
climb after the Pentagon said it had ordered up to 8,500 U.S.
troops on standby for deployment to Eastern Europe. "Wheat prices
on Chicago are the most impacted by the current geopolitical crisis
with Russia, with operators pointing to probable supply disruptions
from this major exporting country in case of conflict," said
AgriTel. The firm adds that poor conditions for winter wheat in the
U.S. is also helping drive prices higher.
Taking a Ride: Corn futures rode on wheat's momentum for most of
the day. A Russia-Ukraine conflict would potentially affect
Ukraines' corn exports in addition to wheat exports of both Russia
and Ukraine. However, farmers took the opportunity to sell this
afternoon. "Corn started the day stronger on Ukrainian tensions,
but backed off with decent U.S. farmer selling on the rally today,"
said Charlie Sernatinger of ED&F Man Capital.
INSIGHTS
Dialing in Risk: The momentum seen in CBOT wheat futures over
the past week appears to be grain traders dialing in risk premium
ahead of any potential military conflict, said Jason Britt of
Central States Commodities. "The market's anticipation could be
worse than what actually happens," said Mr. Britt, adding that any
issues that sanctions may place on Russian wheat exports may
quickly be filled by wheat from other competing sources like the
E.U. and Australia. "Either way, it's going to take a while to sort
out," he said.
Looking to the Future: Renewable fuels is chief in ADM's focus
for 2022, the company said in its latest earnings report released
this morning. "As we enter 2022, we're well situated to capitalize
on strong crush margins, driven by good demand for meal and for
vegetable oil as a feedstock for renewable green diesel," said Juan
Luciano of ADM. The company reported lower sales figures for
crushing in 2021, but attributed it to "net negative timing
impacts" costing ADM $250 million. These "impacts" are not expected
to last into 2022.
Growing Stocks: Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones this week are
forecasting U.S. ethanol supplies to again rise in this weeks' EIA
report. Analysts are predicting stocks for the week ending January
21 to be anywhere from 23.7 million barrels to 24.49 million
barrels, up from 23.59 million barrels reported last week. If
inventories arrive at the high end of analyst expectations, then
it'll be the highest they've been since May 2020. Meanwhile,
analysts are forecasting a wide range for daily production -
anywhere from 1.01 million barrels per day to 1.09 million barrels
per day.
AHEAD:
--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks
report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30
a.m. ET Thursday.
-Mondelez International Inc. will release its fourth-quarter
earnings report after the stock market closes on Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 25, 2022 15:31 ET (20:31 GMT)
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