By Timothy W. Martin
North Korea sees its nuclear program as essential to regime
survival, serving to deter a U.S.-led invasion. Decades of
denuclearization talks, economic sanctions and diplomacy have done
little to slow Pyongyang's advance to becoming a self-declared
nuclear state.
One of the world's poorest and most-isolated countries, North
Korea has managed to stay high on Washington's list of
foreign-policy priorities for years. It spends more on its
military, as a ratio of gross domestic product, than any other of
the 170 countries tracked by the U.S. State Department.
Pyongyang developed its weapons program brazenly, flouting
sanctions and breaking promises to halt nuclear production. In 2003
it withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the main
global commitment to stopping the spread of nuclear weapons.
At 2018's Singapore summit with President Trump, Kim Jong Un
greatly boosted his global legitimacy by becoming the first North
Korean leader to meet a sitting U.S. leader. In 2017 Pyongyang had
ratcheted up tensions with the U.S. to their highest level in years
by conducting its sixth nuclear test and firing off three
intercontinental ballistic missiles--the last of them showing the
range to strike anywhere in the U.S.
What are North Korea's nuclear capabilities?
The U.S. Army in July said North Korea may now have 20 to 60
nuclear bombs and the ability to manufacture six new bombs each
year. In October, then-U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said North
Korea's nuclear and ballistic-missile programs remain "a serious
threat to the security and stability of the region and the
world."
Pyongyang has yet to show it can reliably strike the U.S. with a
nuclear weapon. That requires developing a warhead that can survive
the enormous pressure and heat of re-entering the atmosphere. And
in its tests the North has launched ICBMs at a steep angle--in part
to keep them from splashing down in U.S. territorial waters--which
leaves doubts about whether the technology could traverse an actual
flight, with its flatter trajectory.
Nuclear talks have stalled between Washington and Pyongyang,
despite three meetings between Messrs. Trump and Kim. The two sides
remain far apart on when and how the North should relinquish its
nuclear arsenal. The last formal talks, in October 2019 in
Stockholm, broke down after a single day. In a statement addressing
U.S. affairs, Kim Yo Jong, the leader's younger sister, said
denuclearization didn't seem possible at the moment.
What type of missiles does North Korea have?
Mr. Kim, in a policy speech published Jan. 1, 2020, declared he
no longer felt bound by a moratorium on long-range weapons tests
dating to late 2017. At an October military parade, the North
showcased a new ICBM that weapons experts believe is the largest of
its kind and could hold multiple warheads. Mr. Kim has recently
said such technology is at a final stage of development.
Since the 2019 Vietnam summit ended without a deal, North Korea
has conducted more than a dozen tests of shorter-range weapons that
can't reach the U.S. mainland but endanger allies and overseas
troops in South Korea and Japan. It has honed new launch systems,
flown weapons designed to evade U.S. missile defenses and upgraded
its submarine-fired technology.
When was the last time North Korea fired missiles?
Pyongyang conduced its last nuclear and ICBM tests in the fall
of 2017. The nuclear test, in September, produced an estimated
yield as high as 100 kilotons, according to a South Korean
lawmaker--or roughly five times that of the atomic bomb the U.S.
dropped on Nagasaki, Japan, in 1945.
The ICBM test came that November. The missile, dubbed the
Hwasong-15, soared to an altitude of around 2,800 miles, or about
11 times as high as the International Space Station.
Mr. Kim accelerated the country's weapons development. In the
three years before the Singapore summit in 2018, North Korea
unleashed more major missiles than in the three previous decades.
Of the country's 103 missile launches and nuclear tests, 72 have
been conducted since Mr. Kim took power in late 2011, according to
the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a
Washington-based think tank with a database going back to 1984.
Can North Korea's missiles reach the continental U.S.?
The Hwasong-15 missile could potentially strike anywhere in the
U.S., according to an assessment by the U.S. Forces Korea, which
oversees the roughly 28,500 American personnel in South Korea.
Missile experts estimate its range at 8,100 miles, and say a
North Korean ICBM could hit the U.S. mainland less than 30 minutes
after launch.
In January, Mr. Kim outlined a goal of extending the flight
range to about 9,300 miles.
The shorter- and medium-range weapons have repeatedly shown the
North has ample ability to hit South Korea and Japan.
What has the U.S. response been to North Korea's missile
tests?
Washington and Pyongyang have held denuclearization talks since
President George H.W. Bush was in the White House and North Korea
was still led by founder Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Un's grandfather.
Prior deals sought to freeze production, allow on-site inspections
or dismantle facilities in return for aid or other resources. But
the arrangements broke down after the North refused to comply or
engaged in a military provocation.
Mr. Trump took a different approach, shifting negotiations
customarily left to working-level officials to leader-level
diplomacy. The Trump administration played down North Korean's
resumption of weapons tests in spring 2019, because they didn't
include ICBMs or nuclear bombs. The absence of long-range tests,
Mr. Trump and senior officials said, was a sign the U.S. approach
was successful. Others, like former U.S. national security adviser
John Bolton, said the tests violated United Nations
restrictions.
As recently as December 2020, Stephen Biegun, the U.S. special
representative for North Korea, said Washington remained ready to
resume nuclear talks with Pyongyang.
Without a nuclear deal that eases sanctions--which limit the
North's access to foreign banks and global trade--Mr. Kim can't
deliver on his promise to revitalize a North Korean economy that
has crumbled during the pandemic. Living conditions have slid so
much that Mr. Kim has apologized a number of times for the policy
failure, a gesture previously unheard of in North Korea.
What is President-elect
Joe Biden
's stance on North Korea?
Mr. Biden has advocated mixing pressure with what he calls
principled diplomacy. He has declared an end to holding summits
without preconditions, which he said amounts to embracing a thug.
Mr. Biden said he would sit down with Mr. Kim only if Pyongyang
were sincere and pledged to reduce its nuclear arsenal.
North Korea hasn't acknowledged Mr. Biden's election victory.
This month Mr. Kim called the U.S. his country's biggest enemy.
North Korean state media last mentioned Mr. Biden by name in 2019,
when it called him a "fool of low I.Q." and compared him to a rabid
dog that "must be beaten to death."
Write to Timothy W. Martin at timothy.martin@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 15, 2021 07:14 ET (12:14 GMT)
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