By James T. Areddy / Photographs by Benjamin Rasmussen for The Wall Street Journal
Before the coronavirus pandemic, few American cities were
creating jobs faster than Denver. Nor had many places aligned
themselves so closely with sectors that have since been battered by
shutdowns aimed at curbing the spread of the virus, such as tourism
and energy.
Now the Mile High City may also hold answers about the
post-coronavirus economic outlook: whether cities that outperformed
during the longest expansion in U.S. history are better cushioned
to navigate a recovery. In Denver's case, some of the same factors
that propelled it -- such as a younger, more educated and wealthier
population -- may outweigh disadvantages of high exposure to
crisis-hit sectors, according to local business owners and
economists.
A few months back when the U.S. was enjoying joblessness at a
half-century low, Denver area employment proved consistently
healthier than the national average, according to the U.S. Labor
Department. The city's expanding population earned a median income
of $63,793 -- 6% above the national average -- and underpinned
surging property values. They patronized hundreds of new
restaurants a year in places such as the trendy RiNo district.
An important component of Denver's vitality has included
attracting outsiders: tourists and convention-goers, but also
companies and job seekers. Chunks of that revenue have been erased
by lockdowns and social distancing. Resort, hotel, restaurant and
airport layoffs in Denver and across Colorado have propelled state
jobless claims to nearly 500,000 in recent weeks -- compared with
jobs added as recently as February.
Denver's 4.6% jobless rate in March, the most recent month
available, exceeded the national average for the first time since
early 2012, according to the Labor Department. The fall in economic
activity also caused a collapse in global oil prices, costing oil
patch jobs in Denver.
"Tourism and energy looked like competitive disadvantages in the
early part of the crisis," said Brian Lewandowski, executive
director of the Business Research Division at the Leeds School of
Business at the University of Colorado-Boulder. But, he added, that
isn't the whole story. He said that while 26% of the state's jobs
are spread between recreation, restaurants, accommodation,
retailing and a variety of services such as beauty treatments and
auto repairs, these sectors generate only about 13% of total wages,
limiting their overall impact.
Most workers' income, Mr. Lewandowski said, "hasn't been as
disrupted so far."
While Denver cultivates an image as a destination catering to
hipsters, athletes and geologists, just as important are its ties
to technology, finance and the military and defense sector.
Fitch Ratings recently affirmed Denver's triple-A bond rating,
despite what it said are expected drops in tax collections from
hotels, rental cars and restaurants, because city finances are
robust and "post-pandemic revenue growth prospects remain strong."
A Moody's Investors Service report put Denver alongside Salt Lake
City; Durham, N.C.; and Madison, Wis. on a list of U.S. cities it
considers best positioned to rebound from the crisis.
The Denver economy's resilience and diversity today reflect
local policies set following boom-bust volatility in the 1980s when
the economy got repeatedly whipsawed by swings in the prices of
natural resources such as oil. Ever since, Denver policy makers
have sought to attract technology companies and expand
opportunities linked to tourism. "We've been very deliberate about
it," Denver Mayor Michael Hancock said.
Energy remains a key industry, and this year's oil-price drop
has again hurt that sector. Oil producer Discovery Natural
Resources LLC, for example, said it had permanently laid off 28
staff in its Denver headquarters to reduce costs in a "difficult
operating environment." The privately held company declined to say
how many people it employs in Denver.
Some businesses outside energy and tourism remain confident.
Locally based kidney-treatment company DaVita Inc. says it has more
than 120 jobs open in the area, while Boston fund manager Fidelity
Investments is accelerating plans to add 200 client-services staff
around Denver, according to a spokeswoman.
Still, the coronavirus pandemic has reduced Denver's cool
quotient, a problem for a city that celebrates its median age of 34
years -- almost four years below the national average. Professional
sports are on hiatus. Organizers of a big craft beer festival say
they don't know how the October event will proceed. It is anyone's
guess if the world's snowboarders will in the winter again flock
through Denver and head to the Rocky Mountains.
Challenges have shifted for celebrated Denver chef Jennifer
Jasinski. She went from struggling to staff her five restaurants to
furloughing most of her 250 workers, shuttering a new gastropub and
modifying the menu at her award winning Rioja to make it
exclusively for takeout. "I'm being forced to make decisions
without answers right now," she said.
On Wednesday, in line with city permission, Ms. Jasinski was
welcoming back dine-in customers, although with social-distancing
rules that will cut seating to a quarter of normal and with no more
than 40% of previous staff levels. "I feel better today that we
have a first step toward opening up," she said. "There are still a
million questions," she added, since the "economics haven't
changed" in terms of rent due and food prices.
Jon Wallace was recently laid off from a digital marketing job
at a Denver marijuana retailer and said his out-of-work friends are
weighing how long they can afford the city. "It's the feeling kind
of like when I graduated from college and all my classmates became
my competition," the 30-year-old said.
Mr. Hancock, Denver's mayor, acknowledged that his order in
mid-March to shut tourist venues and restaurants exposed
vulnerabilities in the local economy. Some venues, he said, might
never manage to reopen.
But the mayor said his health rules took the economy into
account, including by sparing a sector he called the city's most
broad-based: "We really focused on the construction industry," he
said.
In recent years, construction equipment lessor Arvada Rent-Alls
expanded its fleet of machines by 30% or more annually to capture a
building boom driven by tech companies, oil producers and home
buyers, said its chief executive, Andrew Heesacker. In March the
family-run company eliminated two entry-level positions from its
staff of about 30 and halted plans to purchase some heavy
equipment. Mr. Heesacker said he still expects recovery to happen
quickly.
"I haven't heard of any projects stopping altogether," he said.
"I think it has to do with the diversity of the area."
Write to James T. Areddy at james.areddy@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 31, 2020 09:14 ET (13:14 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.