Italian Bond Yields Rise as Europe Signals Lack of Cohesion
April 08 2020 - 9:28AM
Dow Jones News
By Anna Hirtenstein
Italian government bond yields rose as Europe's finance
ministers failed to agree on a collective response to the economic
impact of the coronavirus crisis.
The yield on benchmark 10-year debt jumped above 1.7% on
Wednesday, from around 1.5% the day before. The spread between this
bond and Europe's safest asset, German government debt, widened to
more than two percentage points, having been as narrow as 1.6
points on March 26. Italy's shorter-dated bond yields also rose,
with the two-year yield up 0.11 percentage point, reflecting a
perceived rise in credit risk for the country in the next few
years.
Talks between the European Union's finance ministers, known as
the Eurogroup, toward a joint economic response to the crisis were
suspended after 16 hours. Discussions are scheduled to resume
Thursday.
"The market was expecting some kind of agreement at a European
level to deal with the economic fallout, but the Eurogroup poured a
bit of cold water on that," said Ralf Preusser, global head of
rates research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "We're seeing a
payback in spreads as a result today."
A key roadblock for finance ministers was the issue of common
debt. Italy pushed for a commitment for eurozone nations to raise
and spend capital as a group, a move historically resisted by
Germany and others. Such a commitment is seen as a way for the
bloc's most vulnerable countries to access emergency funds without
adding to their already-precarious debt piles.
Italy was the first country on the continent to implement a
lockdown in response to the coronavirus, forcing businesses to
close and people to stay home to reduce the spread of the disease.
UniCredit SpA, one of Italy's largest banks, projected that this
will result in a 15% contraction in the economy this year.
The country has launched a EUR750 billion ($815 billion) program
of bank-loan guarantees and liquidity for businesses and
households, equating to more than 40% of the country's gross
domestic product last year. Italy is already one of the most
indebted countries in Europe, with borrowings stretching above 130%
of GDP. The Italian Treasury hasn't yet released a revised
bond-issuance schedule since the crisis began, but UniCredit
expects this closely watched metric to rise to 167% this year. This
could present a problem if the country's cost of borrowing
increases and it is left to deal with the blow to its economy
largely on its own.
"This is a crisis that's affecting the entire euro area. It's
about being a single market, a political bloc," said Luca
Cazzulani, a fixed-income strategist at UniCredit. The European
Central Bank has responded strongly but investors are watching for
signs of political backing as well, he said.
The ECB last month announced a EUR750 billion bond-buying
program with the aim of channeling funds to governments in need.
This move calmed markets and sent yields on Southern European
government debt down. But as questions arise about Europe's
cohesion, some investors are dumping Italy's bonds and the yields
are ticking up again.
"In a way we're still flying blind, there's still the big
unknown cost of this crisis. As things get clearer, the [Italian
bond] market might find new trading levels that risk being wider
from here," Mr. Preusser said.
Write to Anna Hirtenstein at anna.hirtenstein@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 08, 2020 09:13 ET (13:13 GMT)
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