BOND REPORT: Treasury Yields Edge Lower As Investors Await Cavalcade Of Fed Speakers, Watch U.S.-China Talks
February 22 2019 - 9:53AM
Dow Jones News
By William Watts, MarketWatch
Treasury prices rose Friday, putting yields under pressure,
ahead of scheduled remarks from several Federal Reserve officials
and as investors awaited further developments on the U.S.-China
trade front, including a meeting between President Donald Trump and
Beijing's top trade negotiator.
What are yields doing?
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell 3.1 basis points to
2.658%, while the 2-year Treasury note yield slipped 2.9 basis
points to 2.495%. The 30-year Treasury bond yield fell 2.8 basis
points to 3.014%. Yields and debt prices move in opposite
directions.
What's driving the market?
The economic calendar is light on data but investors will hear
from a string of Fed officials who are attending a monetary policy
forum in New York, including Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, Gov.
Randal Quarles, New York Fed President John Williams, San Francisco
Fed President Mary Daly, St.Louis Fed President James Bullard and
Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker.
And, of course, U.S.-China trade talks remain in focus. News
reports point to signs of progress but also continued divisions
over intellectual property rights and other issues. Stocks were set
to get a lift
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-index-futures-point-higher-on-optimism-over-us-china-trade-talks-2019-02-22),
however, on a scheduled White House meeting
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tough-going-in-trade-talks-trump-set-to-meet-chinas-top-negotiator-report-2019-02-21)
Friday between President Donald Trump and China's top trade
negotiator, Vice Premier Liu He.
Trump earlier this week indicated that a de facto extension of
an early March deadline for a deal could be in the offing if no
agreement is in place at that time. Trump told reporters that the
deadline wasn't a "magical" date. Tariffs on imports of Chinese
goods are due to rise to 25% from 10% at 12:01 a.m. Eastern on
March 2 if no deal is finalized.
A fall in German bund yields after a weaker-than-expected
reading of a closely watched business sentiment index could also be
a drag on U.S. yields, analysts said. The yield on the 10-year
German government bond, known as the bund, fell 3.3 basis points to
0.98%.
The Ifo Institute said Friday that its business-climate index
fell to 98.5 in February
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/german-business-sentiment-hits-4-year-low-2019-02-22)
from a revised 99.3 points in January. The outcome marks the lowest
level since January 2015, when the index also stood at 98.5 points,
and came in below economists' forecasts of 99.0 points.
What are analysts saying?
"In essence, the announcement of a delay [on a tariff increase]
could catalyze a very modest down trade in U.S. [Treasurys], while
a meeting which appears to end on an acrimonious note would drive
an asymmetric rally," said Ian Lyngen, rates strategist at BMO
Capital Markets, in a note. "Were an extension to be granted, the
question would then become whether this is merely a delay of higher
duties or a step toward avoiding them altogether."
The tone from Fed speakers "will probably be dovish, but that
shouldn't surprise," wrote analysts at KBC Bank in Brussels. "The
Fed used lack of inflationary pressure as one of the reasons to
explain this year's U-turn. This week's FOMC minutes hinted at a
March announcement on ending the balance sheet run-off by the end
of the year. The US 10-year yield remain stuck in a 2.49%-2.78%
sideways trading range."
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 22, 2019 09:38 ET (14:38 GMT)
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