Few Americans Believe Handing Over Sovereignty to New Iraqi Government Will Achieve Positive Results Only small minorities see it leading to free, democratic government, spreading freedom and democracy in the Middle East, reducing attacks on U.S. troops or enabling most U.S. troops to leave in next year ROCHESTER, N.Y., July 22 /PRNewswire/ -- A new Harris Poll finds that only a small minority of the public believes that the handing over of sovereignty to the new Iraqi government will achieve positive results. Twenty percent believe it will "enable most U.S. troops to leave Iraq in the next year." Eighteen percent think it will "reduce the number of attacks on U.S. troops." Twenty-nine percent believe it will "lead to a reasonably free and democratic system of government in Iraq," and 22 percent believe it will "be a model which will spread freedom and democracy in the Middle East." These are some of the findings of an online survey of 2,242 adults conducted by Harris Interactive(R) between July 12 and 16, 2004. The survey also finds that on several key indicators the public's confidence in the administration and its policies on Iraq has fallen to its lowest levels yet, although the numbers are only marginally worse than they were in June. Specifically: * 39% of the public now rate the president's handling of Iraq positively, compared to 41% in June, 49% in March (and a high of 67% in April 2003). * Only 43% of the public now believes that taking military action in Iraq was the right thing to do compared to 44% in June, 47% in May and 55% in January. However, 15% are not sure, leaving a virtual tie between those who think it was the right thing (43%) or the wrong thing (42%) to do. * Those who believe that the level of U.S. casualties is "unfortunate but acceptable" have fallen to 38%, compared to 40% in June, and a high of 51% in July 2003. The survey also found that a 51 to 26 percent majority is not confident that U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful, little changed from the 53 to 25 percent who felt this way in June; but this is lower than the 55 to 25 percent majority in May. The only good news for the government is modest. The 45 to 18 percent plurality that believes the "situation for U.S. troops in Iraq is getting worse" is fewer than the 49 to 19 percent who felt this way in May and not nearly as many as the 65 to 11 percent majority who believed this to be true in May. So what? This survey shows that handing over of sovereignty to the new Iraqi government has done very little to convince the American people of the success of U.S. policies there. With each succeeding month, Iraq looks more and more like an electoral liability for President Bush in this November's election. The light at the end of the tunnel is dim. TABLE 1 THE LIKELY IMPACT OF HANDING OVER SOVEREIGNTY TO NEW IRAQI GOVERNMENT "The United States and its allies have now handed over sovereignty to the new Iraqi government. Do you feel that this will or will not...? Base: All Adults Will Will Not Not Sure Lead to a reasonably free and democratic system of government % 29 34 37 in Iraq Be a model which will help % 22 44 34 spread freedom and democracy in the Middle East Enable most U.S. troops to leave % 20 58 22 Iraq in the next year Reduce the number of attacks % 18 65 16 against the U.S. troops Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 2 RATING OF PRESIDENT BUSH - HANDLING OF IRAQ "Overall, how would you rate the job President Bush has done in handling the issue of Iraq over the last several months?" Base: All Adults 2003 2004 Mar. April May July Sept. Nov. Jan. Feb. Mar. April May June July % % % % % % % % % % % % % Positive 56 67 63 49 47 41 51 48 49 43 42 41 39 (NET) Excellent 29 38 34 21 16 15 20 23 18 15 13 13 15 Pretty good 27 29 28 29 31 26 31 26 31 29 29 27 24 Negative (NET) 43 32 36 50 51 58 46 51 49 55 56 58 58 Only fair 16 15 18 22 19 19 20 19 19 18 18 19 17 Poor 27 17 18 28 32 38 26 32 30 37 39 39 40 Not sure 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 3 Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 3 CONFIDENT THAT U.S. POLICIES WILL BE SUCCESSFUL "How confident are you that U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful?" Base: All Adults 2003 2004 Sept. Nov. Jan. Feb. March April May June July % % % % % % % % % Confident 27 25 31 31 31 26 25 25 26 Not 46 51 45 48 46 52 55 53 51 confident Not sure 27 24 24 22 22 22 20 22 23 Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 4 WAS MILITARY ACTION THE RIGHT THING TO DO? "Thinking about everything that has happened, do you think that taking military action against Iraq was the right or wrong thing to do?" Base: All Adults 2003 2004 Sept. Nov. Jan. Feb. March April May June July % % % % % % % % % Right thing 55 49 55 52 51 49 47 44 43 Wrong thing 32 37 31 34 33 37 38 42 42 Not sure 13 13 15 14 16 14 14 14 15 Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 5 LEVEL OF CASUALTIES ACCEPTABLE OR NOT? "Do you think that the level of U.S. casualties in Iraq is...?" Base: All Adults 2003 2004 July Sept. Nov. Jan. Feb. March April May June July % % % % % % % % % % Unfortunate but acceptable 51 47 44 44 43 44 42 41 40 38 Unacceptable 43 47 51 49 49 49 51 52 53 54 Not sure 6 6 5 7 9 7 7 7 7 8 Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 6 IS SITUATION FOR U.S. TROOPS GETTING BETTER OR WORSE "Do you think that the situation for U.S. troops in Iraq is...?" Base: All Adults Jan. Feb. March April May June June July % % % % % % % % Getting better 24 22 24 9 11 19 19 18 Getting worse 36 38 38 64 65 49 49 45 No real change 31 31 30 20 19 26 26 30 Not sure 8 9 8 6 5 6 6 7 Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Methodology The Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States between July 12 and 16, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 2,242 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online. In theory, with probability samples of this size, one could say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, and weighting. It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. This online sample was not a probability sample. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. W21662 Q501, Q510, Q515, Q520, Q525, Q540 About Harris Interactive(R) Harris Interactive (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/) is a worldwide market research and consulting firm best known for The Harris Poll(R), and for pioneering the Internet method to conduct scientifically accurate market research. Headquartered in Rochester, New York, Harris Interactive combines proprietary methodologies and technology with expertise in predictive, custom and strategic research. The Company conducts international research from its U.S. offices and through wholly owned subsidiaries-London-based HI Europe (http://www.hieurope.com/), Paris-based Novatris and Tokyo-based Harris Interactive Japan-as well as through the Harris Interactive Global Network of independent market- and opinion-research firms. EOE M/F/D/V To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to participate in future online surveys, visit http://www.harrispollonline.com/. Press Contact: Nancy Wong Harris Interactive 585-214-7316 DATASOURCE: Harris Interactive CONTACT: Nancy Wong of Harris Interactive, +1-585-214-7316, Web site: http://www.harrisinteractive.com/ http://www.hieurope.com/ http://www.harrispollonline.com/

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