NEW
YORK, July 25, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow
Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for
the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of
U.S. home prices. Data released today for May 2023 show all 20 major metro markets reported
month-over-month price increases for the third straight month. More
than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can
be accessed in full by going to
www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA
Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a -0.5%
annual decrease in May, down from a loss of -0.1% in the previous
month. The 10-City Composite showed a decrease of -1.0%, which is a
tick up from the -1.1% decrease in the previous month. The 20-City
Composite posted a -1.7% year-over-year loss, same as in the
previous month.
Chicago, Cleveland, and New
York reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20
cities in May. Chicago moved up
one to the top spot with a 4.6% year-over-year price increase,
while Cleveland came in at number
two with a 3.9% increase, and New
York entered the top three in third with a 3.5% increase.
There was an even split of 10 cities reporting lower prices and
those reporting higher prices in the year ending May 2023 versus the year ending April 2023.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a
1.2% month-over-month increase in May, while the 10-City and
20-City Composites both posted increases of 1.5%.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a
month-over-month increase of 0.7%, while the 10-City Composite
gained 1.1% and 20-City Composites posted an increase of 1.0%.
ANALYSIS
"The rally in U.S. home prices continued in May 2023," says Craig J.
Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "Our National
Composite rose by 1.2% in May, and now stands only 1.0% below its
June 2022 peak. The 10- and 20-City
Composites also rose in May, in both cases by 1.5%.
"The ongoing recovery in home prices is broadly based. Before
seasonal adjustment, prices rose in all 20 cities in May (as they
had also done in March and April). Seasonally adjusted data showed
rising prices in 19 cities in May, repeating April's performance.
(The outlier is Phoenix, down
0.1% in both months.) On a trailing 12-month basis, the National
Composite is 0.5% below its May 2022
level, with the 10- and 20-City Composites also negative on a
year-over-year basis.
"Regional differences continue to be striking. This month's
league table shows the Revenge of the Rust Belt, as Chicago (+4.6%), Cleveland (+3.9%), and New York (+3.5%) were the top performers. If
this seems like an unusual occurrence to you, it seems that way to
me too. It's been five years to the month since a cold-weather city
held the top spot (and that was Seattle, which isn't all that cold). Since
May 2018, the top-ranked cities have
been Las Vegas (12 months),
Phoenix (33 months), Tampa (5 months), and Miami (9 months).
"At the other end of the scale, the worst performers continue to
cluster near the Pacific coast,
with Seattle (-11.3%) and
San Francisco (-11.0%) at the
bottom. This month the Midwest (+2.7%) unseated the Southeast
(+2.1%) as the country's strongest region. The West (-6.9%) remains
weakest.
"Home prices in the U.S. began to fall after June 2022, and May's data bolster the case that
the final month of the decline was January
2023. Granted, the last four months' price gains could be
truncated by increases in mortgage rates or by general economic
weakness. But the breadth and strength of May's report are
consistent with an optimistic view of future months."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for
the three composites along with the current levels and percentage
changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
2006
Peak
|
2012
Trough
|
Current
|
Index
|
Level
|
Date
|
Level
|
Date
|
From Peak
(%)
|
Level
|
From Trough
(%)
|
From Peak
(%)
|
National
|
184.61
|
Jul-06
|
134.00
|
Feb-12
|
-27.4 %
|
305.15
|
127.7 %
|
65.3 %
|
20-City
|
206.52
|
Jul-06
|
134.07
|
Mar-12
|
-35.1 %
|
312.02
|
132.7 %
|
51.1 %
|
10-City
|
226.29
|
Jun-06
|
146.45
|
Mar-12
|
-35.3 %
|
325.72
|
122.4 %
|
43.9 %
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 2 below summarizes the results for May 2023. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the
receipt of additional source data.
|
May
2023
|
May/April
|
April/March
|
1-Year
|
Metropolitan
Area
|
Level
|
Change
(%)
|
Change
(%)
|
Change
(%)
|
Atlanta
|
234.65
|
0.9 %
|
1.3 %
|
2.1 %
|
Boston
|
314.53
|
1.2 %
|
3.0 %
|
0.2 %
|
Charlotte
|
261.12
|
1.2 %
|
1.4 %
|
2.3 %
|
Chicago
|
192.96
|
2.3 %
|
1.8 %
|
4.6 %
|
Cleveland
|
178.84
|
2.7 %
|
2.3 %
|
3.9 %
|
Dallas
|
293.17
|
1.6 %
|
1.4 %
|
-3.8 %
|
Denver
|
316.16
|
0.7 %
|
1.6 %
|
-4.9 %
|
Detroit
|
176.53
|
2.3 %
|
2.2 %
|
2.1 %
|
Las Vegas
|
272.67
|
0.9 %
|
0.7 %
|
-7.8 %
|
Los Angeles
|
410.13
|
1.2 %
|
1.7 %
|
-3.1 %
|
Miami
|
408.52
|
1.2 %
|
0.8 %
|
3.4 %
|
Minneapolis
|
235.56
|
1.6 %
|
1.7 %
|
0.3 %
|
New York
|
283.03
|
1.9 %
|
1.6 %
|
3.5 %
|
Phoenix
|
314.13
|
0.9 %
|
0.7 %
|
-7.6 %
|
Portland
|
324.93
|
1.0 %
|
1.5 %
|
-5.1 %
|
San Diego
|
409.85
|
1.9 %
|
2.0 %
|
-4.2 %
|
San
Francisco
|
350.34
|
1.0 %
|
2.2 %
|
-11.0 %
|
Seattle
|
367.42
|
1.9 %
|
2.3 %
|
-11.3 %
|
Tampa
|
374.80
|
1.0 %
|
0.8 %
|
0.7 %
|
Washington
|
310.17
|
1.5 %
|
1.6 %
|
-0.1 %
|
Composite-10
|
325.72
|
1.5 %
|
1.7 %
|
-1.0 %
|
Composite-20
|
312.02
|
1.5 %
|
1.7 %
|
-1.7 %
|
U.S.
National
|
305.15
|
1.2 %
|
1.5 %
|
-0.5 %
|
Sources: S&P Dow
Jones Indices and CoreLogic
|
Data through
May 2023
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the
seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data.
Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported
on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline
indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices
publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline
indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price
indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
|
May/April Change
(%)
|
April/March Change
(%)
|
|
Metropolitan
Area
|
NSA
|
SA
|
NSA
|
SA
|
|
Atlanta
|
0.9 %
|
0.4 %
|
1.3 %
|
0.8 %
|
|
Boston
|
1.2 %
|
0.7 %
|
3.0 %
|
1.6 %
|
|
Charlotte
|
1.2 %
|
0.6 %
|
1.4 %
|
0.7 %
|
|
Chicago
|
2.3 %
|
1.4 %
|
1.8 %
|
0.9 %
|
|
Cleveland
|
2.7 %
|
1.7 %
|
2.3 %
|
1.7 %
|
|
Dallas
|
1.6 %
|
0.7 %
|
1.4 %
|
0.4 %
|
|
Denver
|
0.7 %
|
0.4 %
|
1.6 %
|
0.4 %
|
|
Detroit
|
2.3 %
|
1.6 %
|
2.2 %
|
0.9 %
|
|
Las Vegas
|
0.9 %
|
0.2 %
|
0.7 %
|
0.0 %
|
|
Los Angeles
|
1.2 %
|
0.9 %
|
1.7 %
|
1.0 %
|
|
Miami
|
1.2 %
|
0.8 %
|
0.8 %
|
0.2 %
|
|
Minneapolis
|
1.6 %
|
0.6 %
|
1.7 %
|
0.5 %
|
|
New York
|
1.9 %
|
1.8 %
|
1.6 %
|
1.2 %
|
|
Phoenix
|
0.9 %
|
-0.1 %
|
0.7 %
|
-0.1 %
|
|
Portland
|
1.0 %
|
0.3 %
|
1.5 %
|
0.7 %
|
|
San Diego
|
1.9 %
|
1.5 %
|
2.0 %
|
1.1 %
|
|
San
Francisco
|
1.0 %
|
0.8 %
|
2.2 %
|
0.9 %
|
|
Seattle
|
1.9 %
|
1.3 %
|
2.3 %
|
0.4 %
|
|
Tampa
|
1.0 %
|
0.7 %
|
0.8 %
|
0.3 %
|
|
Washington
|
1.5 %
|
1.0 %
|
1.6 %
|
0.5 %
|
|
Composite-10
|
1.5 %
|
1.1 %
|
1.7 %
|
1.0 %
|
|
Composite-20
|
1.5 %
|
1.0 %
|
1.7 %
|
0.9 %
|
|
U.S.
National
|
1.2 %
|
0.7 %
|
1.5 %
|
0.6 %
|
|
Sources: S&P Dow
Jones Indices and CoreLogic
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Data through May
2023
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please
visit www.spglobal.com/spdji.
ABOUT S&P DOW JONES INDICES
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S&P Dow Jones Indices' interactive blog, IndexologyBlog.com,
delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts
across S&P Global on a wide-range of topics impacting
residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in
the United States. Readers and
viewers can visit the blog at www.indexologyblog.com, where
feedback and commentary are welcomed and encouraged.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the
last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am
ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path
of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area
provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of
individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales
data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price
Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of
single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions
and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of
the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic
Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted
average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value
of 100 in January 2000; thus, for
example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50%
appreciation rate since January 2000
for a typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements
between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by
CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering
thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets.
The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just
a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.
Case-Shiller® and CoreLogic® are
trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or
subsidiaries ("CoreLogic") and have been licensed for use by
S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on
indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are
sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic
nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in
interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of
investing in such products.
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SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices