NEW
YORK, Feb. 28, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Dow
Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for
the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of
U.S. home prices. Data released today for December 2022 show that home price gains
continued to drop across the United
States with declining prices reported in the San Francisco and Seattle markets. More than 27 years of history
are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by
going to
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/index-family/indicators/sp-corelogic-case-shiller/.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA
Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.8%
annual gain in December, down from 7.6% in the previous month. The
10-City Composite annual increase came in at 4.4%, down from 6.3%
in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 4.6%
year-over-year gain, down from 6.8% in the previous month.
Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta reported the highest year-over-year
gains among the 20 cities in December. Miami led the way with a 15.9% year-over-year
price increase, followed by Tampa
in second with a 13.9% increase, and Atlanta in third with a 10.4% increase. All 20
cities reported lower prices in the year ending December 2022 versus the year ending November
2022.
MONTH-OVER-MONTH
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a
-0.8% month-over-month decrease in December, while the 10-City and
20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.8% and -0.9%,
respectively.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a
month-over-month decrease of -0.3%, and the 10-City and 20-City
Composites posted decreases of -0.4% and -0.5%, respectively.
In December, all 20 cities reported declines both before and
after seasonal adjustments.
ANALYSIS
"The cooling in home prices that began in June 2022 continued through year end, as December
marked the sixth consecutive month of declines for our National
Composite Index," says Craig J.
Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "The
National Composite declined by -0.8% in December, and now stands
4.4% below its June peak. For 2022 as a whole, the National
Composite rose by 5.8%, the 15th best performance in our
35-year history, although obviously well below 2021's
record-setting 18.9% gain. We could record similar
observations in the 10- and 20-City Composites.
"Prices fell in all 20 cities in December, with a median decline
of -1.1%. Moreover, for all 20 cities, year-over-year gains
in December (median 4.4%) were lower than those of November (median
6.4%). We noted last month that home prices in San Francisco had fallen on a year-over-year
basis. San Francisco's
decline worsened in December (-4.2% year-over-year); its west coast
neighbors Seattle (-1.8%) and
Portland (+1.1%) once again form
the bottom of the league table.
"As was the case last month, December's best performers were all
in the Southeast, with Miami
(+15.9%) in the lead for the fifth straight month.
Tampa (+13.9%) and Atlanta (+10.4%) continued in second and third
place, with Charlotte (+9.9%) not
far behind. Unsurprisingly, the Southeast (+12.5%) and South
(+11.6%) were the strongest regions, and the West (+1.2%)
continuing as the weakest.
"The prospect of stable, or higher, interest rates means that
mortgage financing remains a headwind for home prices, while
economic weakness, including the possibility of a recession, may
also constrain potential buyers. Given these prospects for a
challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well
continue to weaken."
SUPPORTING DATA
Table 1 below shows the housing boom/bust peaks and troughs for
the three composites along with the current levels and percentage
changes from the peaks and troughs.
|
2006 Peak
|
2012 Trough
|
Current
|
Index
|
Level
|
Date
|
Level
|
Date
|
From
Peak (%)
|
Level
|
From
Trough (%)
|
From
Peak (%)
|
National
|
184.61
|
Jul-06
|
134.00
|
Feb-12
|
-27.4 %
|
294.68
|
119.9 %
|
59.6 %
|
20-City
|
206.52
|
Jul-06
|
134.07
|
Mar-12
|
-35.1 %
|
298.70
|
122.8 %
|
44.6 %
|
10-City
|
226.29
|
Jun-06
|
146.45
|
Mar-12
|
-35.3 %
|
310.64
|
112.1 %
|
37.3 %
|
Table 2 below summarizes the results for December 2022. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Indices could be revised for the prior 24 months, based on the
receipt of additional source data.
|
December
2022
|
December/November
|
November/October
|
1-Year
|
Metropolitan
Area
|
Level
|
Change
(%)
|
Change
(%)
|
Change
(%)
|
Atlanta
|
226.74
|
-0.7 %
|
-0.6 %
|
10.4 %
|
Boston
|
298.57
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.7 %
|
5.2 %
|
Charlotte
|
250.88
|
-1.0 %
|
-0.7 %
|
9.9 %
|
Chicago
|
182.54
|
-1.2 %
|
-0.5 %
|
5.9 %
|
Cleveland
|
170.23
|
-0.8 %
|
-0.7 %
|
6.0 %
|
Dallas
|
284.37
|
-1.1 %
|
-1.1 %
|
7.9 %
|
Denver
|
303.36
|
-1.3 %
|
-0.8 %
|
3.5 %
|
Detroit
|
166.57
|
-1.1 %
|
-0.4 %
|
4.5 %
|
Las Vegas
|
273.76
|
-1.8 %
|
-1.7 %
|
3.6 %
|
Los Angeles
|
389.00
|
-0.8 %
|
-0.9 %
|
2.7 %
|
Miami
|
398.56
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.2 %
|
15.9 %
|
Minneapolis
|
225.56
|
-1.2 %
|
-0.7 %
|
3.2 %
|
New York
|
271.30
|
-0.2 %
|
-0.1 %
|
6.6 %
|
Phoenix
|
311.13
|
-1.9 %
|
-1.9 %
|
2.9 %
|
Portland
|
315.19
|
-1.9 %
|
-1.0 %
|
1.1 %
|
San Diego
|
380.43
|
-1.3 %
|
-1.3 %
|
1.6 %
|
San
Francisco
|
330.91
|
-1.8 %
|
-1.6 %
|
-4.2 %
|
Seattle
|
351.70
|
-1.8 %
|
-1.5 %
|
-1.8 %
|
Tampa
|
367.03
|
-0.9 %
|
-1.0 %
|
13.9 %
|
Washington
|
297.21
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.3 %
|
4.3 %
|
Composite-10
|
310.64
|
-0.8 %
|
-0.6 %
|
4.4 %
|
Composite-20
|
298.70
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.8 %
|
4.6 %
|
U.S.
National
|
294.68
|
-0.8 %
|
-0.6 %
|
5.8 %
|
Sources: S&P Dow
Jones Indices and CoreLogic
|
Data through
December 2022
|
|
|
|
Table 3 below shows a summary of the monthly changes using the
seasonally adjusted (SA) and non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) data.
Since its launch in early 2006, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Indices have published, and the markets have followed and reported
on, the non-seasonally adjusted data set used in the headline
indices. For analytical purposes, S&P Dow Jones Indices
publishes a seasonally adjusted data set covered in the headline
indices, as well as for the 17 of 20 markets with tiered price
indices and the five condo markets that are tracked.
|
December/November
Change (%)
|
November/October
Change (%)
|
Metropolitan
Area
|
NSA
|
SA
|
NSA
|
SA
|
Atlanta
|
-0.7 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.6 %
|
-0.4 %
|
Boston
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.7 %
|
-0.5 %
|
Charlotte
|
-1.0 %
|
-0.5 %
|
-0.7 %
|
-0.5 %
|
Chicago
|
-1.2 %
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.5 %
|
0.1 %
|
Cleveland
|
-0.8 %
|
-0.2 %
|
-0.7 %
|
0.0 %
|
Dallas
|
-1.1 %
|
-0.7 %
|
-1.1 %
|
-0.7 %
|
Denver
|
-1.3 %
|
-0.8 %
|
-0.8 %
|
-0.5 %
|
Detroit
|
-1.1 %
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.4 %
|
0.1 %
|
Las Vegas
|
-1.8 %
|
-1.5 %
|
-1.7 %
|
-1.3 %
|
Los Angeles
|
-0.8 %
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.7 %
|
Miami
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.1 %
|
-0.2 %
|
0.0 %
|
Minneapolis
|
-1.2 %
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.7 %
|
-0.1 %
|
New York
|
-0.2 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.1 %
|
-0.3 %
|
Phoenix
|
-1.9 %
|
-1.3 %
|
-1.9 %
|
-1.4 %
|
Portland
|
-1.9 %
|
-1.3 %
|
-1.0 %
|
-0.4 %
|
San Diego
|
-1.3 %
|
-0.7 %
|
-1.3 %
|
-0.6 %
|
San
Francisco
|
-1.8 %
|
-1.2 %
|
-1.6 %
|
-1.3 %
|
Seattle
|
-1.8 %
|
-1.2 %
|
-1.5 %
|
-1.0 %
|
Tampa
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.7 %
|
-1.0 %
|
-0.9 %
|
Washington
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.2 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.1 %
|
Composite-10
|
-0.8 %
|
-0.4 %
|
-0.6 %
|
-0.5 %
|
Composite-20
|
-0.9 %
|
-0.5 %
|
-0.8 %
|
-0.5 %
|
U.S.
National
|
-0.8 %
|
-0.3 %
|
-0.6 %
|
-0.3 %
|
Sources: S&P Dow
Jones Indices and CoreLogic
|
Data through
December 2022
|
|
|
|
For more information about S&P Dow Jones Indices, please
visit https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/.
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delivers real-time commentary and analysis from industry experts
across S&P Global on a wide-range of topics impacting
residential home prices, homebuilding and mortgage financing in
the United States. Readers and
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feedback and commentary are welcomed and encouraged.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are published on the
last Tuesday of each month at 9:00 am
ET. They are constructed to accurately track the price path
of typical single-family homes located in each metropolitan area
provided. Each index combines matched price pairs for thousands of
individual houses from the available universe of arms-length sales
data. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price
Index tracks the value of single-family housing within the United States. The index is a composite of
single-family home price indices for the nine U.S. Census divisions
and is calculated quarterly. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
10-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted average of
the 10 original metro area indices. The S&P CoreLogic
Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index is a value-weighted
average of the 20 metro area indices. The indices have a base value
of 100 in January 2000; thus, for
example, a current index value of 150 translates to a 50%
appreciation rate since January 2000
for a typical home located within the subject market.
These indices are generated and published under agreements
between S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic, Inc.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices are produced by
CoreLogic, Inc. In addition to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller
Indices, CoreLogic also offers home price index sets covering
thousands of zip codes, counties, metro areas, and state markets.
The indices, published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, represent just
a small subset of the broader data available through CoreLogic.
Case-Shiller® and CoreLogic® are
trademarks of CoreLogic Case-Shiller, LLC or its affiliates or
subsidiaries ("CoreLogic") and have been licensed for use by
S&P Dow Jones Indices. None of the financial products based on
indices produced by CoreLogic or its predecessors in interest are
sponsored, sold, or promoted by CoreLogic, and neither CoreLogic
nor any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, or predecessors in
interest makes any representation regarding the advisability of
investing in such products.
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SOURCE S&P Dow Jones Indices