Dean Foods' Risk-Reward Balances - Analyst Blog
December 07 2011 - 3:00AM
Zacks
We have maintained our long-term
‘Neutral’ recommendation on Dean Foods Company
(DF) with a target price of $11.00 per share. Dean Foods is a
leading processor and distributor of milk and other dairy products
in the U.S. as well as a leading manufacturer of various specialty
food products. The company operates primarily on a local basis,
competing mostly with local and regional operators.
To muddle through the declining
fluid milk processing profits due to increased money-offs on
private label milk distribution and weak sales volume, Dean Foods
is taking prudent steps, including price realization by passing
input cost inflation to customers, cost reduction initiatives and
increasing volume performance. These fundamental steps will
facilitate in stemming the decline while rebuilding the company’s
profitability.
Moreover, Dean Foods continues to
make headway in its efforts to achieve the lowest cost position in
the industry. The company has benefited from its continued focus on
cost reduction initiatives across the businesses including
headcount reductions. The company also intends to move aggressively
toward streamlining its cost structure while aiming to achieve
total cost savings of $300.0 million by the end of fiscal 2011
under the cost reduction program started in 2009.
Further, Dean Foods has taken
strategic steps to optimize its capital allocation and concentrate
on core business activities. Consequently, during current fiscal
2011, the company has divested its underperforming business unit
operations of dairy processing facility in the Southeast and
expects more closures over the balance of the year.
However, Dean Foods’ business is
heavily dependent on commodities such as raw milk, soybeans, and
fuel and other. The company’s performance may be adversely affected
due to volatility in the prices of these commodities, which are
based on market conditions and governmental regulations.
In addition, Dean Foods is heavily
dependent on a handful of customers, including large discounters,
supermarkets and warehouse clubs. This considerably reduces Dean
Foods’ pricing power against these giant retailers, thereby
exerting pressure on margins and limiting profitability.
Above all, in the recent years, the
retail grocery industry has experienced significant consolidation,
and as a result, competition has intensified among dairy product
suppliers. Dean Foods experiences stiff competition, especially at
the processor level, in all major product lines and geographic
markets. Therefore, the company could suffer significantly from the
loss of any large regional grocery chain. Dean Foods competes not
only with various dairy processors for shelf space, but also with
various beverages and nutritional products. The company’s major
competitors include Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) and
ConAgra Foods Inc. (CAG).
CONAGRA FOODS (CAG): Free Stock Analysis Report
DEAN FOODS CO (DF): Free Stock Analysis Report
KRAFT FOODS INC (KFT): Free Stock Analysis Report
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