Back-to-School U.S. Retail Sales Expected to Grow 5.5%* Compared to Last Year, According to Mastercard SpendingPulse
June 10 2021 - 9:01AM
Business Wire
Anticipated growth builds on positive retail
momentum, as Total Retail Sales rose 12%* year-over-year in May,
fueled by pent-up demand and reopenings
As students wrap up the current school year, retailers – and
parents – are already preparing for a robust back-to-school
shopping season as more kids head back into the classroom.
According to Mastercard SpendingPulse™, which measures
in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment, U.S.
retail sales are expected to grow 5.5% excluding automotive and gas
during the critical July 15 through September 6 back-to-school
period compared to 2020. Compared to 2019, sales are expected to
grow 6.7%.
“Back to school has always been a prime season for retailers.
This year, the broader reopening brings an exciting wave of
optimism as children prepare for another school year, and the
grown-ups in their lives approach a similar ‘return to office’
scenario,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor for Mastercard and
former CEO and Chairman of Saks Incorporated. “This back-to-school
season will be defined by choice as online sales remain robust,
brick and mortar browsing regains momentum and strong promotions
help retailers compete for shoppers' wallets.”
Anticipated Back-to-School
Retail Sales
Anticipated Year-Over-Year
(YOY) Growth 2021 (July 15-September 6) vs. 2020 (July
16-September 7)
Anticipated Year-Over-Two
Years (YO2Y) Growth 2021 (July 15-September 6) vs. 2019 (July
13-September 4)
Total Retail Sales (ex. Auto and
Gas)
+5.5%
+6.7%
Total Retail Sales (ex. Auto)
+10.0%
+9.1%
E-commerce Sales
-6.6%
+53.2%
Apparel
+78.2%
+11.3%
Electronics
+13.0%
+9.6%
Department Stores
+25.3%
+9.5%
Source: Mastercard SpendingPulse, which
measures overall retail sales across all payment types, including
cash and check
Sector-Level Back-to-School Trends:
As the broader U.S. reopening occurs and consumers return to
brick and mortar, we anticipate e-commerce sales will ease slightly
compared to last year (-6.6%) but will remain up a significant
amount (+53.2%) when compared to 2019. In terms of what consumers
are buying this back-to-school season, we anticipate the following
retail trends:
- Apparel Refresh: While athleisure was the fashion
statement of 2020, this year brings the diversification of the
wardrobe as in-person schooling, reunions and other events drive
consumers to make their social debuts in style. Apparel is expected
to grow 78.2% YOY / 11.3% YO2Y.
- Department Store Shopping Returns: Department Stores,
outdoor shopping centers and malls offer a fresh change of scenery
for shoppers. We forecast a 25.3% YOY / 9.5% YO2Y increase in the
Department Store sector as they rebound from last year’s dip in
foot traffic. Buy online, pick-up in store as well as technologies
such as contactless will remain important as consumers continue to
seek low-contact experiences.
- Tech Upgrade: If we learned one thing this past year,
it’s that technology keeps us connected. With many states and
schools determining the virtual/in-person cadence, we anticipate
Electronics will be up 13.0% YOY / 9.6% YO2Y.
Building on Ongoing Retail Momentum:
The anticipated back-to-school sales growth is a continuation of
ongoing retail sales momentum, with May marking the eighth
consecutive month of Total Retail Sales growth*. According to
Mastercard SpendingPulse, U.S. retail sales excluding automotive
and gasoline, increased 12.2% year-over-year in May, and 10.2%
compared to May 2019. Online sales in May grew 1.1% and 94.8%
respectively, compared to the same periods.
Mastercard SpendingPulse™ U.S.
Snapshot – May 2021
Sales Growth May 2021 vs.
2020
Sales Growth May 2021 vs.
2019
Total Retail Sales (ex. Auto and
Gas)
+12.2%
+10.2%
Total Retail Sales (ex. Auto)
+16.4%
+9.9%
E-commerce Sales
+1.1%
+94.8%
By Sector
Apparel
+75.9%
+14.7%
Department Stores
+212.0%
+4.2%
Furniture & Furnishings
+22.5%
+20.2%
Grocery
+4.8%
+14.4%
Jewelry
+203.4%
+44.7%
Lodging
+254.4%
-1.5%
Restaurants
+84.7%
+7.9%
Source: Mastercard SpendingPulse, which
measures overall retail sales across all payment types, including
cash and check
*excluding auto and gas sales
About Mastercard SpendingPulse
Mastercard SpendingPulse™ reports on national retail sales
across all payment types in select markets around the world. The
findings are based on aggregate sales activity in the Mastercard
payments network, coupled with survey-based estimates for certain
other payment forms, such as cash and check. As such,
SpendingPulse™ insights do not in any way contain, reflect or
relate to actual Mastercard operational or financial performance,
or specific payment-card-issuer data.
Mastercard SpendingPulse defines “U.S. retail sales” as sales at
retailers and food services merchants of all sizes. Sales activity
within the services sector (for example, travel services such as
airlines and lodging) are not included.
About Mastercard (NYSE: MA)
Mastercard is a global technology company in the payments
industry. Our mission is to connect and power an inclusive, digital
economy that benefits everyone, everywhere by making transactions
safe, simple, smart and accessible. Using secure data and networks,
partnerships and passion, our innovations and solutions help
individuals, financial institutions, governments and businesses
realize their greatest potential. Our decency quotient, or DQ,
drives our culture and everything we do inside and outside of our
company. With connections across more than 210 countries and
territories, we are building a sustainable world that unlocks
priceless possibilities for all.
www.mastercard.com
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Media William Tsang, Mastercard 914.249.2640 |
William.Tsang@mastercard.com Julia Monti, Mastercard 914.217.9533 |
Julia.Monti@mastercard.com
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