Fed's Temporary Liquidity Sees Notable Declines This Week
February 28 2020 - 2:02PM
Dow Jones News
By Michael S. Derby
The outstanding amount of temporary money the Federal Reserve
has added to the financial system fell by a notable amount this
week.
On Friday, the New York Fed executed a $26.24 billion repurchase
agreement operation, or repo, that expires on Monday. Because
$30.19 billion in outstanding repos were maturing Friday, the
overall pool of temporary operations ticked down $4 billion to
$126.2 billion. The drop Friday followed another big decline on
Thursday, when the repo outstanings tumbled by $13.3 billion.
Outstanding repos are now at their lowest level since nearly the
time that the Fed restarted the temporary interventions last fall
after a decade of disuse. The Fed redeployed repos last September
after unexpected friction in the broader repo market, where banks
and others go to borrow and lend cash short-term, causing it to
briefly lose control of its short-term target rate range.
Fed repo operations, which were joined by central bank Treasury
bill buying in October, were collectively designed to ensure banks
have enough reserves to avoid unwanted volatility in short-term
rates. Repo operations peaked on Jan. 1 with $255.62 billion
outstanding.
At the Fed's policy meeting in late January it affirmed plans to
wind down its Treasury bill buying in the second quarter and to
likely end repo interventions in April. To that end, the Fed has
reduced the maximum size of overnight operations to $100 billion,
with the most latest longer-term repo operation capped at $25
billion. It will shrink to a $20 billion limit on Tuesday.
While most Fed officials have rejected this view, many in
markets said the Fed's temporary money, which helped lift the
overall size of its balance sheet from $3.8 trillion in September
to its current $4.2 trillion size, was a stealth form of stimulus
generating unwarranted risk taking in financial markets. The Fed
countered that it simply needed to bolster bank reserves to a
minimum of $1.5 trillion. Now, bank reserve levels are at $1.7
trillion, giving the Fed a growing cushion for its reserves
threshold.
At the same time, eligible banks' demand for the Fed's money has
grown quite weak for overnight repos, although the term operations
have pretty consistently seen banks seek more money than the Fed
would offer. Fed officials judge the success of the effort on what
has happened with the federal-funds rate, and there, that rate has
traded consistently where Fed officials want.
Fed repo operations and the state of its balance sheet have
drawn less focus as the coronavirus health scare has raised fears
about the global economic outlook, and sent stock prices plummeting
and Treasury borrowing costs to historic lows. Markets broadly
expect the Fed to lower rates in response to the trouble, even as
Fed officials refrain from endorsing that view.
But if the Fed does lower rates, the balance sheet could loom
back into view quickly. Any push to lower rates would bring
monetary policy once again back toward near zero rates. Fed
officials have already said they would use all the tools at their
disposal should they deem it necessary. That could muddy the waters
between its technical efforts to grow the balance sheet, and
stimulus related buying, if it comes to that.
So far, that situation seems unlikely, but the outlook can
change quickly.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said
Friday "the situation is very fluid, and we are going to want to
monitor events right up until" the mid-March Federal Open Market
Committee meeting. "Further policy rate cuts are a possibility if a
global pandemic actually develops with health effects approaching
the scale of ordinary influenza, but this is not the baseline case
at this time."
Write to Michael S. Derby at michael.derby@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 28, 2020 13:47 ET (18:47 GMT)
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