Chicago Fed National Activity Index Ticks Up in January, Signaling Growth
February 24 2020 - 9:21AM
Dow Jones News
By Dave Sebastian
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a measure of economic
activity in the U.S., inched higher in January, signaling
growth.
The index was -0.25 for January, compared with a -0.51 reading
in the prior month, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago. When a reading is above -0.35, it has in the past meant
the economy is expanding.
Of the four broad categories the index is made up of, three
negatively contributed. All four categories increased from
December.
Eighty-five indicators make up the index, and of those, 49
negatively contributed and 36 positively contributed, the Chicago
Fed said.
A total of 27 of the 85 indicators deteriorated from the prior
month, while two were unchanged and 56 of those contributed
positively to the index. Thirty of the indicators that improved
made negative contributions, the Chicago Fed said.
The CFNAI-MA3, which the Chicago Fed says can show a more
consistent view of economic growth, was -0.09. The three-month
moving average was up from -0.23 the previous month.
The Chicago Fed said the CFNAI Diffusion Index ticked up to
-0.16 from -0.25 in December. That three-month moving average shows
how much a change in the monthly index spans across its more than
80 indicators, the Chicago Fed said.
A CFNAI-MA3 reading of more than -0.70 and a CFNAI Diffusion
Index reading of more than -0.35 have historically indicated
economic expansion, the Chicago Fed said.
Production-related indicators contributed -0.23 in January, up
from -0.34 in December. Industrial production decreased 0.3% in
January after decreasing 0.4% in December. The sales, orders and
inventories category rose to -0.02 in January from -0.06 in
December.
Employment-related indicators contributed -0.03 in January, up
from -0.12 in the previous month. The personal-consumption and
housing category edged up to 0.03 in January from flat in
December.
Write to Dave Sebastian at dave.sebastian@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 24, 2020 09:06 ET (14:06 GMT)
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