Sweden to Abandon Negative Rates But Currency Can't Catch a Break
November 13 2019 - 8:29AM
Dow Jones News
By Caitlin Ostroff
Sweden, unlike most of the rest of the slow-growth world, has
had enough of negative interest rates.
Next month, its central bank is expected to unwind them -- among
the first of those that dabbled in the unorthodox stimulus measure
in recent years to do so. But investors see other factors that will
keep the country's downtrodden currency, the krona, one of the
worst performing in the world, from staging a comeback.
Central bankers in the Scandinavian country, home to Volvo
vehicles, Ericsson telecom equipment and H&M apparel, signaled
last month that they plan to raise its benchmark interest rate next
month to 0%, from minus 0.25%, citing concerns that keeping them
negative any longer could lead to distortions in the financial
system.
The move would have Sweden increasingly at odds with other
central banks. The European Central Bank lowered rates further into
subzero territory in recent months. Switzerland, Japan and Denmark
also maintain negative policy rates. And while still solidly in
positive territory, the U.S. Federal Reserve has cut rates three
times this year.
The krona has fallen more against the dollar than other major
economies' currencies in the last two years, down roughly 15%
against the U.S. dollar since the end of 2017. But it didn't
receive a boost when the Riksbank flagged the impending end of
negative rates in October. Higher rates tend to attract money into
an economy, boosting its exchange rate.
After the Riksbank flagged the rate increase at a meeting in
late October, the krona briefly gained 0.8% against the dollar and
the euro before losing strength by the day's end.
One key reason: Negative rates might not matter as much as
people think. What is more important is that the Riksbank will
continue to engage in bond purchases, a form of quantitative
easing.
"QE is the most potent weapon," said Andreas Steno Larsen,
senior global strategist at Nordea.
The Riksbank said in April it will continue purchasing
government bonds through December 2020.
Another factor for krona weakness is Sweden's dependence on
global trade. Its manufacturing sector -- like that of the U.S. and
Germany -- has been hard-hit by global trade tensions. Its overall
growth fell to just 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in the
first and second quarters of the year, compared with 1.3% in the
fourth quarter of 2018.
"For the currency to see a turnaround, you need to see a
turnaround in global growth and the trade outlook," said Petr
Krpata, chief foreign exchange analyst for Europe, the Middle East
and Africa at ING Bank.
The expected rate increase hasn't piqued the interest of
currency strategists, whose median forecast is for the krona to
weaken slightly against the dollar by the end of the year,
according to a Refinitiv poll. One U.S. dollar buys 9.7 krona.
Sweden is also heavily export dependent so a weaker currency
should have benefited the economy. One factor in Sweden's decision
to institute a negative deposit rate on banks in 2014 was to keep
the currency from strengthening.
There is a sense in Sweden, however, that negative rates haven't
given the economy the boost expected. And central bankers have felt
that persistently low rates could create perverse incentives, such
as too much borrowing by households and asset price inflation.
Policy makers began raising rates in December 2018, taking the
benchmark to minus 0.25% from minus 0.5%.
The central bank's deposit rate, or what it charges commercial
banks to hold money at the central bank, is expected to remain
slightly negative, rising from minus 35 basis points to minus 10
basis points, said Olle Holmgren, an economist at SEB Bank. Though
still negative, he said it would have a negligible effect on
monetary policy.
Swedish stock market, meanwhile, has risen smartly this year --
in local currency terms. The OMX Stockholm 30 index, which includes
H&M owner Hennes & Mauritz AB, appliance maker Electrolux
and truck and industrial equipment maker Volvo AB, is up 25% and 6%
over the past month. But priced in euros or dollars, as
international investors approach the market, Sweden has lagged
behind both the S&P 500 and the Stoxx Europe 600.
Write to Caitlin Ostroff at caitlin.ostroff@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 13, 2019 08:14 ET (13:14 GMT)
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