DALLAS, Sept. 25, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Comerica
Bank's Texas Economic Activity Index was unchanged in July at
139.2. July's index reading was 44 points, or 46 percent, above the
index cyclical low of 95.5. The index averaged 134.6 points for all
of 2018, 5.7 points above the average for 2017. June's index
reading was revised to 139.2.
The Comerica Bank Texas Economic Activity Index was unchanged in
July, ending the streak of six consecutive monthly gains since
January of this year. Only two of the component sub-indexes were
positive in July. They were nonfarm employment and industrial
electricity demand. Four sub-indexes were negative in July. The
negatives were unemployment insurance claims (inverted), housing
starts, drilling rig count and total state trade. The three
unchanged sub-indexes were house prices, hotel occupancy and sales
tax revenue. The slide in oil prices from near $66 per barrel for WTI in late April, to
$53 per barrel in mid-June was a drag
on the Texas economy. Our index
for the state drilling rig count has declined for the seven
straight months ending in July. Recently, oil prices have trended
up with the attack on Saudi Arabian production facilities. The
Texas house price sub-index has
also been a drag, more often than not, over the past 18 months.
Most non-energy components of the Texas economy continue to perform well.
However, economic growth is cooler outside of Texas, and that will weigh on demand for
Texas exports. Many states in the
Midwest and East Coast are showing little-to-no job growth.
Europe is clearly cooling as
Germany finds itself on the brink
of recession. Global powerhouse China is losing momentum. On the plus side,
Texas Central Partners is progressing toward groundbreaking for its
high speed rail line from Dallas
to Houston.
The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of nine variables, as
follows: nonfarm payroll employment, continuing claims for
unemployment insurance, housing starts, house price index,
industrial electricity sales, Texas rotary rig count, total trade, hotel
occupancy and sales tax revenue. All data are seasonally adjusted.
Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Total
index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving
averages.
Comerica Bank is a subsidiary of Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:
CMA), the largest U.S. commercial bank headquartered in
Texas, strategically aligned by
three business segments: The Business Bank, The Retail Bank, and
Wealth Management. Comerica focuses on relationships, and helping
people and businesses be successful. In addition to a local banking
center network throughout Dallas-Fort
Worth, Houston,
Austin, San Antonio and Kerrville, Texas, Comerica Bank locations can
be found in Arizona, California, Florida and Michigan, with select businesses operating in
several other states, as well as in Canada and Mexico.
To subscribe to our publications or for questions, contact us at
ComericaEcon@comerica.com. Archives are available at
http://www.comerica.com/insights. Follow us on Twitter:
@Comerica_Econ.
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SOURCE Comerica Bank