Inflation Bonds Lead Gains in U.S. Government Debt -- Update
September 16 2019 - 9:43PM
Dow Jones News
By Daniel Kruger
U.S. government bonds that offer investors protection against
inflation rallied Monday, powered by concerns that a surge in oil
prices would raise consumer prices after an attack on the heart of
Saudi Arabia's oil industry.
The yield on 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, or
TIPS, snapped a streak of five consecutive increases, falling to
0.173% from 0.227% Friday, according to Tradeweb. Bond yields fall
when prices rise.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note also fell,
upending a five-session streak of increases, settling at 1.843%,
from 1.901% Friday.
The gains halted a selloff that had driven the 10-year yield
higher in five consecutive sessions to its biggest weekly advance
in more than six years. Higher oil prices could add an additional
strain on global growth, already stressed by the trade conflict
between the U.S. and China.
Some investors said TIPS offered protection from the risk that a
rise in the price of oil could lead to higher prices throughout the
economy. TIPS tend to be sensitive to oil prices, which make up a
large component of measures of inflation and investors tend to buy
safe government bonds when they expect slower growth, which
typically leads to slower price increases.
Some were already expecting higher inflation, with TIPS yields
rising more moderately than yields on other debt last week after
economic data showed that the U.S. economy remains on track to
continue growing at a solid pace. Central banks around the world
are also easing monetary policy to stimulate growth and inflation,
with the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates at the conclusion of
its meeting Wednesday.
Fed officials have become increasingly concerned that trade
tensions and slowing growth around the world could spill over into
the U.S. economy. The European Central Bank lowered interest rates
and announced a new program of bond purchases last week.
"The Fed is trying to look past some of the backward-looking
measures of inflation," said Scott Colyer, chief executive officer
at Advisors Asset Management. While higher oil prices may raise
short-term inflation concerns, "if this continues, it could hurt
demand for goods and services," he said. "That's what the Fed is
worried about."
Yet even with momentary price pressures in the economy,
inflation has remained intractably low for a long time,
demonstrating resistance to a variety of fiscal and monetary
policies that investors had expected to revive it, some analysts
said.
Inflation expectations in the bond market are measured by the
gap between the yield on conventional fixed-rate government
securities and the yield on similar maturity TIPS. The yield on
TIPS maturing in 10 years was a recent 0.159%, making the gap
between the two securities 1.675 percentage points. That's up from
about 1.5 percentage points two weeks ago, according to
Tradeweb.
The WSJ Dollar Index rose 0.3% to a recent 91.39, gaining
against the euro and the British pound as yields on short-term
Treasury bills rose.
Write to Daniel Kruger at Daniel.Kruger@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 16, 2019 21:28 ET (01:28 GMT)
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