Investors Aren't Buying This Oil Rebound
July 15 2019 - 12:22PM
Dow Jones News
By Ryan Dezember
U.S. oil prices have risen by about a third this year, but
shares of energy producers are being left behind the rally.
Crude's climb has done little to encourage investors off the
sidelines and back into energy stocks. In fact, many investors are
actively betting on energy stocks to fall. Short interest in many
oil-and-gas producers was recently the highest it has been since
early 2016, when oil traded below $40 a barrel.
West Texas Intermediate futures for August delivery were little
changed at $60.23 a barrel Monday morning on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude, the global benchmark, gained 0.1%
to $66.80 a barrel on London's ICE Futures exchange.
Meanwhile, energy stocks are generally having another down day.
Shares of large energy companies in the S&P 500 traded 0.5%
lower. They are up 12% on the year, but in the past three months
have lost 4.5% while oil prices rose on production cuts from the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and sanctions
that have taken barrels from Iran and Venezuela off the market.
Smaller energy companies in the S&P 600 stock index are down
on the year, and have lost 24% in the past three months. Big losers
on Monday were West Texas oil explorer Centennial Resource
Development and Whiting Petroleum Corp., off 7.6% and 4.9%,
respectively.
Callon Petroleum Co. traded down more than 13% after announcing
an agreement to acquire rival Carrizo Oil & Gas Inc. in an
all-stock deal that valued the target at $3.2 billion, including
debt. Carrizo shares moved 5% higher.
"The investment case for energy is currently in shambles," said
James West, an analyst at Evercore ISI who specializes in
oil-field-services companies.
Behind investors' pessimism is disbelief that U.S. shale
producers will be able to resist additional drilling amid higher
oil prices and stick to spending plans. There is also doubt that
OPEC's production cuts and the geopolitical turmoil that has damped
global supply growth will be enough to balance the market.
"With operators achieving this growth in a $50-to-$55 barrel
environment and most unwilling to cut activity until prices fall
below $50 per barrel, it's hard for investors to want to step into
this rally," analysts with Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. wrote
in a note to clients.
The energy-focused investment bank said that many investors are
uncomfortable betting on Saudi Arabia and the rest of OPEC to
continue to concede market share to U.S. producers to support
prices.
Since late April, money managers have been trimming the long
trading positions, or bets that U.S. crude prices will climb,
according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
Stock investors have been more aggressively downbeat, boosting
their wagers that shares of domestic exploration-and-production
companies will fall. Short interest in the 42 companies that
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Inc. analysts track rose to 11.8% last
month, the highest portion of negative bets on those companies
since March 2016, when crude traded at about $36 a barrel.
"I get it when oil is sub-$40. Here you are basically $20 higher
and yet investors are behaving very the same way." said SunTrust
analyst Neal Dingmann.
The most heavily shorted stocks that Mr. Dingmann studies tended
to be those with the most debt relative to earnings. As of June 28,
the most recent date for which short selling data is available,
nearly 30% of Callon's shares and more than 25% of Whiting's were
held short.
Write to Ryan Dezember at ryan.dezember@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 15, 2019 12:07 ET (16:07 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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