U.S. Oil Prices Decline Ahead of Supply Data
January 23 2019 - 11:01AM
Dow Jones News
By Christopher Alessi and Dan Molinski
--U.S. oil prices were lower Wednesday despite gains on Wall
Street, as investors geared up for data on U.S. oil inventories
that could reinforce worries of an economic slowdown.
--West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. oil standard, were
down 0.5% at $52.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange.
--Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was up 0.3% at $61.71 a
barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange in morning trade.
HIGHLIGHTS
Global Economy: The bullish sentiment that has bolstered the oil
market during the first three weeks of 2019 has largely taken a
breather this week, with crude prices falling Tuesday and remaining
subdued Wednesday morning.
As government officials and business executives gather at the
World Economic Forum in Davos this week, the International Monetary
Fund warned of economic risks around the globe.
"We saw both doom and gloom coming out of Davos," said Phil
Flynn at Price Futures in Chicago. "Talk of slowdown fears are
making the rounds."
Among the concerns being voiced at Davos are the U.S.-China
trade dispute, Britain's planned exit from the European Union, and
a slowdown in the Chinese economy. The IMF lowered its global
economic growth forecast for 2019 to 3.5% from 3.7%.
"The oil market closely follows the growth mood and concerns
about stalling U.S.-Chinese trade talks weighed on prices
yesterday," said Norbert Ruecker, head of macro and commodity
strategy at Julius Baer.
Still, oil prices have risen by around 20% since hitting annual
lows in the last week of December, largely moving in tandem with
global equities
U.S. Inventories: Investors will next focus on weekly data on
U.S. oil inventories that could show crude stockpiles start to
bearishly creep higher after trending slightly lower the past two
months. That is because analysts point to bulging inventories of
gasoline and other fuels that may lead refineries to slow down
activity, thus forcing oil producers to store more oil in tanks.
Industry group American Petroleum Institute is set to release its
inventory data Wednesday afternoon, followed by the official data
from the Energy Information Administration on Thursday.
U.S. Production: The Energy Information Administration reported
Tuesday it expects U.S. shale production to rise by just 63,000
barrels a day in February, the lowest growth rate in nine months.
"The increased price volatility over much of [the fourth quarter of
2018] will have done little to support increased drilling activity.
Meanwhile, the number of drilled but uncompleted wells increased by
218 over December to total a record 8,594," said Warren Patterson,
head of commodity strategy at ING Bank.
INSIGHT
OPEC+: The oil market has been bolstered since the start of 2019
by the implementation of production cuts by the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies. OPEC and 10 producers
outside the oil cartel, led by Russia, agreed late in 2018 to
collectively hold back crude output by 1.2 million barrels a day
for the first half of 2019, to rein in a burgeoning supply glut and
boost prices.
Overall, the "OPEC+ production deal and healthy oil demand
growth should keep the oil market balanced in 2019," UBS Wealth
Management analysts said in a note Wednesday. "While trade war
fears continue to unsettle financial markets, oil demand growth has
remained healthy."
AHEAD
-- API releases weekly data on U.S. oil inventories Wednesday,
followed by official data from the EIA on Thursday.
Write to Christopher Alessi at christopher.alessi@wsj.com and
Dan Molinski at Dan.Molinski@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 23, 2019 10:46 ET (15:46 GMT)
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