Oil Producers Signal Confidence in Managing Supply Disruptions -- update
September 23 2018 - 5:08PM
Dow Jones News
By Christopher Alessi and Summer Said
ALGIERS -- Saudi Arabia and Russia signaled at a meeting of oil
producers that they have the capacity to further ramp up production
to match global supply disruptions, while keeping crude price
steady, even as they deferred any concrete decisions on output
levels to later this year.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries -- de
facto led by Saudi Arabia -- and its allies led by Russia on Sunday
reiterated plans to gradually continue raising crude production in
line with a decision at the start of the summer. But the producers
were vague on the full number of extra oil barrels they plan to
supply to the market. The group said it would meet again in Abu
Dhabi on Nov. 11 to further hammer out details.
After nearly two years of close coordination on crude-oil
output, OPEC and Russia said supply and demand in the market had
been sufficiently rebalanced.
"We have achieved the objectives pretty much of what we set out
in 2016," Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said at the
start of the gathering. "Markets are relatively balanced," he
added.
Mr. Falih also insisted that Saudi Arabia had enough spare oil
capacity -- around 1.5 million barrels a day -- to meet any
shortages in the global oil market. He added that the kingdom would
increase output in October, in line with market needs. "Demand will
be higher in October than September and it will be met 100%."
The meeting comes amid growing risks to global supply, including
from OPEC members Iran, Venezuela and Libya.
Market concerns over falling Iranian exports in particular have
helped to bolster prices recently, sending Brent crude -- the
global benchmark -- close to multiyear highs. Buyers of Iranian
crude have begun cutting imports over the past few months ahead of
planned U.S. economic sanctions on Iran's oil industry, set to take
effect Nov. 4.
President Trump in May pulled the U.S. out of a 2015
international agreement to curb Iran's nuclear program, triggering
the reinstatement of economic sanctions on the Islamic
Republic.
Analysts have estimated around one million barrels a day of
Iran's roughly 2.5 million barrels a day in exports could be at
risk as a result of the sanctions.
Mr. Trump's decision helped Brent temporarily breach the
$80-a-barrel threshold for the first time in 3 1/2 years in May,
prompting concerns by some producers that prices had risen too high
and could damp global demand.
Saudi Arabia and Russia in late June engineered a plan to have
OPEC and its partners begin ramping up production this summer by as
many as one million barrels a day after more than a year of holding
back output.
The move helped put a cap on rapidly rising prices, until Brent
again temporarily surpassed the $80-a-barrel mark this month as the
market refocused on risks to Iranian supply.
OPEC and 10 producers outside the cartel -- led by Russia --
first agreed in late 2016 to hold back production by around 1.8
million barrels a day starting in January 2017, in an effort to
rein in a supply glut that had weighed on prices since late
2014.
However, as a result deeper cuts from countries like Saudi
Arabia and production outages in other OPEC members, compliance
with the deal has exceeded the planned quotas, rising to around
150% -- meaning the countries were cutting even more output than
promised. OPEC and its partners agreed at the June meeting to bring
compliance down to 100%, a goal they reiterated on Sunday.
OPEC and non-OPEC compliance with the agreement fell to 129% in
August, the cartel said.
OPEC has also faced sustained pressure from Mr. Trump to churn
out more oil to keep oil prices lower. "The OPEC monopoly must get
prices down!" Mr. Trump tweeted on Thursday, as OPEC ministers
descended on Algiers.
Mr. Falih on Sunday said it was "of course not true" that OPEC
was responding to pressure from the president. "We have been
looking at more important aspects, which is adequacy of supply," he
added.
Write to Christopher Alessi at christopher.alessi@wsj.com and
Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 23, 2018 16:53 ET (20:53 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.