Oil Tumbles on Reignited Oversupply Fears, Dollar Strength
August 13 2018 - 2:57PM
Dow Jones News
By Amrith Ramkumar and Christopher Alessi
Oil prices tumbled Monday as fresh OPEC supply data and
continued strength in the dollar spooked traders.
Light, sweet crude for September delivery fell 2.1% to $66.21 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, on track for its lowest
close since late June. Brent crude, the global benchmark, slumped
1.7% to $71.55 a barrel. Prices have fallen more than 10% from
their multiyear highs hit earlier this year, hurt in recent weeks
by the prospect that higher output from Saudi Arabia and other
large producers will ease fears of a supply shortage.
Data Monday showed crude-oil output from the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries ticked up slightly in July even as
production in Saudi Arabia -- the de facto leader of the group --
declined.
Investors have also had to monitor recent trade tensions and
weakness in emerging markets like Turkey, factors that could lower
demand and continue boosting the dollar. A stronger dollar makes
commodities priced in the U.S. currency more expensive for overseas
buyers. On Monday, the WSJ Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar
against a basket of 16 other currencies, rose 0.4% coming off its
highest close since May 2017.
As has been the case in recent weeks, analysts said selling
accelerated later in the session as oil moved below closely watched
technical levels.
"Bearish sentiment is starting to infiltrate the crude-oil
market," said Bob Yawger, director of the futures division at
Mizuho Securities U.S.A. "As we traded through Friday's low, there
were people that wanted to get out."
Hedge funds and other speculative investors reduced net bets on
higher oil prices for the fifth consecutive week during the week
ended Aug. 7, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission
figures released late Friday. Speculators pushed bullish bets to
record levels earlier this year.
Some analysts expect oil prices to remain volatile, with
uncertainty still surrounding U.S. sanctions against Iran, the
speed at which large suppliers will boost output and global trade
policies that could impact consumption. The International Energy
Agency on Friday raised its forecast for global oil-demand growth
by 110,000 barrels a day to 1.5 million barrels for 2019
Still, analysts say protectionism and the prospect that this
year's emerging-markets rout could spread are making traders doubt
that consumption will continue to grow. Strong demand from emerging
markets helped push oil to its highest level since 2014 earlier
this year, said Gene McGillian, vice president of research at
Tradition Energy.
"There's some doubts about demand going forward," he said.
"There's a little bit of worry that we could go from tightening
supply-demand fundamentals to loosening."
Analysts were looking ahead to weekly data on U.S. inventories,
scheduled to be released Wednesday, for the latest reading on
domestic production, as some think robust U.S. supply could keep
prices under pressure.
Some investors think oil prices will rebound as a recent bout of
volatile trading continues, noting that they started the day higher
even after OPEC's latest supply data and with the dollar rising. At
times in recent weeks, traders have struggled to pinpoint
fundamental reasons for sharp moves in prices, pointing instead to
technical trading.
"We've had some pretty volatile days in the last month," Mr.
McGillian said. "That's because of the uncertainty."
Among refined products Monday, gasoline futures shed 2.1% to
$1.9959 a gallon. Diesel futures dropped 1.3% at $2.1125 a
gallon.
Write to Amrith Ramkumar at amrith.ramkumar@wsj.com and
Christopher Alessi at christopher.alessi@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 13, 2018 14:42 ET (18:42 GMT)
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