BOND REPORT: 10-year Government Bond Yield Slips Below 3% After ECB Policy Update
April 26 2018 - 9:03AM
Dow Jones News
By Mark DeCambre, MarketWatch
Treasury yields pulled back early Thursday, threatening to halt
a protracted selloff in U.S. government paper that saw
yields--which move inversely to price--for the benchmark 10-year
break above a psychologically significant level at 3%.
The European Central Bank said in a statement that it would
continue to buy EUR30 billion ($36.4 billion) a month of eurozone
bonds at least through September, and would leave its key interest
rate unchanged at minus 0.4%.
Traders were listening to ECB President Mario Draghi's news
conference, which kicked off at 8.30 a.m. Eastern. Here's a live
blog
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ecb-live-blog-draghi-to-deal-with-weaker-economic-data-2018-04-26)of
the ECB event.
See:4 outcomes for the ECB meeting, in 1 handy chart
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-scenarios-for-the-ecb-meeting-on-thursday-in-one-handy-chart-2018-04-24)
How are Treasurys performing?
The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield shed 3 basis points to
2.996%, after notching its highest level since Dec. 31, 2013 late
Wednesday in New York, according to WSJ Market Data Group. Yields
in the maturity have climbed for 14 of the past 17 trading
sessions.
The benchmark needs to push above 3.047% to match its highest
level since July 2011, according to Tradeweb data. According to WSJ
Data, any level above 3.0299% would represent that roughly
seven-year peak.
The 2-year note yield gave up 1.3 basis points to 2.475%,
holding around its highest since August 2008. The rate on the
30-year bond fell by 3.1 basis points to 3.180%. Both the 2-year
and 30-year Treasurys have seen yields climb for six sessions in a
row.
Read: Stock-market investors are barking up the wrong tree on
Treasury yields
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-are-barking-up-the-wrong-tree-on-treasury-yields-2018-04-25)
What's driving the bond market?
Bond traders will watch for any comments from the ECB's
president, Mario Draghi, on eurozone economic growth.
The ECB in March surprised markets by signaling it is on track
to end its stimulus program before year's end. But since then,
economic data have pointed to a slowdown in the eurozone economy.
That has led investors to dial back expectations for the start of
rate increases in the middle of 2019.
Read:Expect a careful, dovish Mario Draghi
(http://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-careful-dovish-mario-draghi-at-next-weeks-ecb-meeting-says-hsbc-2018-04-18)
Rising bond yields, which can make investors reassess valuations
for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500
index , have been rattling equity benchmarks, even as earnings have
mostly come in better than expected on the back of corporate tax
cuts written into law by President Donald Trump late last year.
The ECB policy statement may provide a modicum of clarity on
next steps for a market searching for catalyst, as investors
struggle in a regime in which central bankers are attempting to
normalize monetary policy after the 2008-09 financial crisis. The
ECB has been gradually dialing back its quantitative-easing
program, while the market is pricing in a Federal Reserve that may
raise interest rates as many as three more times in 2018.
Expectation for higher interest rates and a pickup in inflation
toward the Fed's 2% annual target has helped underpin Treasury
trading in recent weeks.
What are strategists saying?
"With US interest rate levels starting to rise to new multi-year
highs on an almost daily basis, investors are asking themselves,
despite a bumper earnings season, is this likely to be as good as
it gets," wrote Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets
in a Thursday note.
Which data are in focus?
What other assets are in focus?
The 10-year German bond fell to 0.608%, compared with 0.638% in
the previous session, according to FactSet data. The so-called
German bund is often used as a proxy for the health of the
eurozone.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
April 26, 2018 08:48 ET (12:48 GMT)
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