Eurozone Stocks Overtake U.S.
March 27 2017 - 1:14PM
Dow Jones News
By Mike Bird
Stocks in the eurozone are now outperforming U.S. peers this
year as local growth picks up and political concerns shift from
Europe to the other side of the Atlantic.
Donald Trump's victory in last year's presidential election
lifted U.S. stocks and the dollar, but investors now are
questioning whether the new administration can deliver the
business-friendly policies that helped propel them.
Despite a slower start to 2017, the Euro Stoxx index has risen
by 4.3% this year to date. The S&P 500 is now up by 4%, down
from the 7% rise the index had notched by the beginning of March.
On Monday, the Dow was heading for its longest losing streak since
2011.
The underperformance is even more stark in dollar terms. Because
the euro has risen 3.45% to $1.09 since the beginning of the year
the Euro Stoxx is up by around 7% in dollar terms since the end of
2016.
The withdrawal of Mr. Trump's signature U.S. health-care reform
plans has rattled markets just as perceptions of political risk
have receded in Europe. Meanwhile, economic data and surveys in the
eurozone are looking their healthiest in a long time and that is
expected to help the region's battered banks outperform U.S.
lenders.
"Markets are now worried they will get Trump without 'the good
bits,' " said Trevor Greetham, who is responsible for asset
allocation at Royal London Asset Management. "If he can't get a
Republican Congress to repeal Obamacare, how can he get more
contentious tax cuts and infrastructure spending bills passed?"
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte defeated euro skeptic candidate
Geert Wilders in elections in the Netherlands this month. Betting
markets now suggest that anti-euro populist Marine Le Pen's chance
of winning France's coming presidential election has declined to
19%, from more than 30% in February.
European markets are reflecting the receding fear of a breakup
in the eurozone.
The spread between France and Germany's 10-year bond yields, one
measure of the political risk in markets, has narrowed from 0.78 in
February to 0.58 percentage points now. Bond yields rise as prices
fall.
Stronger economic data in Europe is also buoying equities.
Businesses in the eurozone reported their strongest economic
conditions in six years in the latest IHS Markit purchasing
managers index in March.
The U.S. composite PMI, in comparison, fell to 53.2 in the same
month, a six-month low.
Some analysts believe the outperformance of European stocks will
continue.
In a note published Monday, equity strategists at Morgan Stanley
raised their forecasts for growth in earnings per share in the MSCI
Europe to 16% from 12% this year. The bank is particularly positive
about the performance of European financial companies, given their
low valuations.
Eurozone companies are cheaper than their U.S. peers relative to
their profits. The Euro Stoxx index has a price to earnings ratio
of 16.2 over the past 12 months, compared with a ratio of 19.5 for
S&P 500 firms.
Analysts at J.P. Morgan also believe that eurozone banks look a
better bet than those in the U.S. "We note that the gap between the
loan growth of the two regions is narrowing. U.S. credit growth has
stalled recently, " the bank said in a note on Monday.
In the Eurozone, lending to corporations and households rose by
2% and 2.3% in the year to February. Net lending was negative as
recently as 2015.
In the U.S., annual bank credit growth has dipped notably,
falling from 8.3% in September to 4.8% this March.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 27, 2017 12:59 ET (16:59 GMT)
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