By Katy Burne
The junk-bond boom has emerged as the biggest U.S. casualty of
the oil bust, as a selloff in the debt of low-rated companies has
punished investors who had flocked to higher yielding but riskier
debt.
Total returns on a popular high-yield bond index tracked by
Barclays PLC fell into the red Tuesday for the first time since
2011. Junk bonds rallied Wednesday, likely taking the index back
above water.
The shifts have deepened a slump that began at midyear when oil
prices were still above $100 a barrel. The average price on junk
bonds is 96.4 cents on the dollar, down from full face value as
recently as Dec. 4 and from 103 cents in September.
The declines have reversed a long period of junk-bond
appreciation and threaten to crimp some borrowers' access to cash
for expansion. The pullback is being widely scrutinized by analysts
and portfolio managers who are on the lookout for any cracks in a
five-year-long bull market in U.S. stocks.
So far, the signs are few and far between: The Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose 288 points Wednesday to 17357 after the
Federal Reserve reiterated its intent to be patient in raising
short-term interest rates. Indeed, some investors are now scouring
the rubble of the junk market for bargains, reasoning that much of
the selling may be overdone and that the actual damage from the
oil-price plunge is likely concentrated in energy companies'
securities, which already have been hammered.
"I'm not worried about my Checkers [Drive-In Restaurants Inc.]
bonds" just because oil is down, said David Sherman, head of
high-yield mutual funds at manager Cohanzick Management LLC. "I
think high yield is reasonable value."
Mr. Sherman said he has been reducing his fund's exposure to the
energy sector all year but that the prices in the market are
"starting to get interesting" enough to tempt him to buy again.
Still, the junk-bond swings highlight the risks buyers have
embraced this year in a bid to generate scarce investment income.
The risk hasn't paid off, as Barclay's U.S. Corporate High Yield
index lost 0.3% this year through Tuesday's close.
That lags behind a 8.85% gain in the S&P 500, a 7.29% rise
in investment-grade corporate debt, a 6% increase in the Barclays
U.S. Aggregate bond index and a 5.45% rally in safe U.S.
Treasurys.
To be sure, junk hasn't been the worst investment. The Russian
ruble has lost nearly half its value against the dollar this year,
and crude futures have dropped more than 40%. Emerging market
stocks as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index are down 8%,
and U.S. small-cap stocks as measured by the Russell 2000 are up
just 1% this year.
Still, this week marks the first time the market has turned
negative since 2011, a year in which junk sold off during the
eurozone crisis before rallying to end the year up 4.98%. The last
time junk bonds finished the year in negative territory was in
2008, when they lost 26% amid a broad flight from risk in the
financial crisis.
Strong junk-market gains in past years have enabled low-rated
issuers to raise more than a trillion dollars in the U.S. since the
financial crisis, including a record $361 billion of issuance in
2013.
Some investors have been scouting for select high-yield bonds
that others have jettisoned with the oil-price slump. Energy
borrowings constitute 14% of the junk-bond market, according to
Barclays' data, up from 5% in 2007.
"What surprised me in the last few weeks is many large asset
managers were underweight high yield energy and so they are in a
better position to step in here once thing start to stabilize,"
said Mark Pibl, head of high yield strategy at Canaccord Genuity
Inc., a broker dealer.
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said that the recent junk price
declines are the most severe since the Russian default crisis in
August 1998, excluding brief periods around the 2001 terror attacks
and the 2008 crisis. Over $200 billion of high yield bonds are now
trading below 90 cents on the dollar, versus $115 billion at the
end of last month and $57 billion as of January.
The premium investors can earn for holding junk bonds has risen
to 5.52 percentage points above supersafe Treasurys, up from their
3.23 points in June and the largest so-called "spread" over
Treasurys since late 2012.
Bonds from Chesapeake Energy Corp. due in 2022 at one point
traded at 96 cents Wednesday, up from 92.75 cents at the open of
the session, and from 90.5 cents Tuesday, according to MarketAxess
Holdings Inc.
Investors broadly predict only a modest rise in defaults across
the high-yield sector in the coming year and are sanguine about the
health of corporate balance sheets.
"The down leg that we have taken has been really brisk," said
Eric Gross, credit strategist at Barclays in New York, "but all of
that feels very contingent on the price of oil."
Write to Katy Burne at katy.burne@wsj.com
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