SEATTLE, July 21, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Home values in
half of the nation's 100 largest metro areas will not reach their
pre-recession peak levels again for another three-plus years,
according to the second quarter Zillow Real Estate Market
Reportsi, proof that the recovery is still very much in
its middle stages.
Nationally, home values remain 11.3 percent below their 2007
peak. Looking ahead, U.S. home values are expected to rise another
4.2 percent through the second quarter of 2015, according to the
Zillow Home Value Forecastii. It will take 2.7 years for
national home values to re-achieve their pre-recession levels,
assuming a steady rate of appreciation at the forecasted level.
Locally, in 50 of the nation's 100 largest metro markets, it
will take three years or more for home values to reach prior peaks.
Notable large metros where full recovery in home values will take
longer than a decade include Minneapolis (14.5 years), Kansas City (12.5 years) and Chicago (11.7 years).
"In dozens of markets, homeowners that bought at the peak of the
market in 2006 or 2007 will have to wait until 2017 or later to get
back to the breakeven point on their home, a lost decade in which
they will have built up no home equity. This is reflected in
stubbornly high negative equity and effective negative equity
rates, with more than a third of Americans with a mortgage lacking
enough equity to realistically list their home for sale and buy
another," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "But there is a silver lining as
we navigate these tricky middle innings of the recovery. Because
home values remain so far below their peak levels in so many areas,
it is still possible for buyers to find bargains. This will be
critical to maintaining home affordability over the coming years,
especially as mortgage interest rates rise."
U.S. home values climbed 6.3 percent year-over-year in the
second quarter to a Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)iii of
$174,200, the slowest annual pace of
appreciation recorded so far this year and a sign that the market
is returning to more normal levels. In a more normal market, home
values appreciate at roughly 3 percent per year. Home values
nationwide were up 1 percent compared to the first quarter and 0.5
percent from May.
Nationally, rents rose 2.5 percent year-over-year in the second
quarter, to a Zillow Rent Indexiv of $1,310 but fell 0.3 percent compared to the first
quarter. The quarterly decline was the largest recorded since
Zillow first began publishing the Zillow Rent Index in late 2010.
U.S. rents were flat month-over-month.
Metropolitan
Area
|
Q2 2014
ZHVI
|
YoY %
Change
|
Current % Fall
From Peak ZHVI v
|
Q2 2014-Q2 2015
Forecasted % Change in Home Values
|
Years until Home
Values are Back to Peak (at Current Forecast)
|
United
States
|
$ 174,200
|
6.3%
|
-11.3%
|
4.2%
|
2.7 (Q1
2017)
|
New York/Northern New
Jersey
|
$ 377,200
|
6.3%
|
-16.4%
|
3.4%
|
4.9 (Q2
2019)
|
Los Angeles,
CA
|
$ 539,800
|
15.0%
|
-12.1%
|
8.7%
|
1.4 (Q4
2015)
|
Chicago,
IL
|
$ 184,800
|
8.1%
|
-24.4%
|
2.1%
|
11.7 (Q1
2026)
|
Dallas-Fort Worth,
TX
|
$ 145,500
|
6.3%
|
-2.2%
|
4.4%
|
0.5 (Q4
2014)
|
Philadelphia,
PA
|
$ 197,600
|
3.8%
|
-14.7%
|
2.8%
|
5.3 (Q4
2019)
|
Houston,
TX
|
$ 145,700
|
11.9%
|
-1.6%
|
2.5%
|
0.6 (Q1
2015)
|
Washington,
DC
|
$ 356,500
|
7.6%
|
-17.4%
|
2.4%
|
7.4 (Q4
2021)
|
Miami-Fort
Lauderdale, FL
|
$ 200,200
|
17.7%
|
-35.9%
|
6.1%
|
5.8 (Q2
2019)
|
Atlanta,
GA
|
$ 149,000
|
18.0%
|
-14.7%
|
9.1%
|
1.6 (Q1
2016)
|
Boston, MA
|
$ 365,100
|
8.6%
|
-5.1%
|
2.9%
|
1.7 (Q1
2016)
|
San Francisco,
CA
|
$ 692,100
|
14.3%
|
-2.2%
|
6.8%
|
0.3 (Q4
2014)
|
Detroit,
MI
|
$ 113,100
|
19.6%
|
-28.3%
|
6.6%
|
4.3 (Q4
2018)
|
Riverside,
CA
|
$ 279,700
|
21.4%
|
-30.5%
|
15.1%
|
2.0 (Q2
2016)
|
Phoenix,
AZ
|
$ 199,000
|
8.4%
|
-27.8%
|
6.3%
|
4.4 (Q4
2018)
|
Seattle,
WA
|
$ 337,000
|
12.4%
|
-11.1%
|
8.3%
|
1.3 (Q4
2015)
|
Minneapolis-St Paul,
MN
|
$ 204,600
|
7.6%
|
-15.2%
|
1.0%
|
14.5 (Q4
2028)
|
San Diego,
CA
|
$ 474,300
|
13.2%
|
-11.9%
|
7.2%
|
1.7 (Q1
2016)
|
St. Louis,
MO
|
$ 131,700
|
-0.5%
|
-16.9%
|
1.7%
|
9.9 (Q2
2024)
|
Tampa, FL
|
$ 144,800
|
15.9%
|
-33.1%
|
6.9%
|
4.8 (Q2
2019)
|
Baltimore,
MD
|
$ 239,000
|
3.2%
|
-17.4%
|
1.8%
|
9.6 (Q1
2024)
|
Denver, CO
|
$ 256,800
|
8.9%
|
0.0%
|
1.8%
|
0 (Currently at
peak)
|
Pittsburgh,
PA
|
$ 123,300
|
8.8%
|
0.0%
|
5.2%
|
0 (Currently at
peak)
|
Portland,
OR
|
$ 274,700
|
10.3%
|
-6.0%
|
4.6%
|
1.3 (Q4
2015)
|
Sacramento,
CA
|
$ 319,700
|
13.3%
|
-27.7%
|
7.4%
|
3.7 (Q1
2018)
|
San Antonio,
TX
|
$ 143,000
|
6.6%
|
-3.8%
|
4.0%
|
0.9 (Q2
2015)
|
Orlando,
FL
|
$ 163,300
|
14.8%
|
-37.9%
|
7.2%
|
5.3 (Q4
2019)
|
Cincinnati,
OH
|
$ 133,500
|
3.7%
|
-6.9%
|
2.4%
|
2.9 (Q2
2017)
|
Cleveland,
OH
|
$ 120,200
|
4.0%
|
-16.0%
|
2.4%
|
6.6 (Q1
2021)
|
Kansas City,
MO
|
$ 138,900
|
-3.6%
|
-12.6%
|
1.0%
|
12.5 (Q4
2026)
|
Las Vegas,
NV
|
$ 182,500
|
22.6%
|
-40.3%
|
8.5%
|
4.8 (Q2
2019)
|
San Jose,
CA
|
$ 815,000
|
15.0%
|
0.0%
|
8.6%
|
0 (Currently at
peak)
|
Columbus,
OH
|
$ 144,000
|
9.8%
|
-2.3%
|
2.5%
|
0.9 (Q2
2015)
|
Charlotte,
NC
|
$ 155,200
|
7.5%
|
-3.8%
|
2.8%
|
1.4 (Q4
2015)
|
Indianapolis,
IN
|
$ 131,700
|
-0.7%
|
-10.8%
|
1.8%
|
5.9 (Q2
2020)
|
Austin, TX
|
$ 211,700
|
12.2%
|
0.0%
|
2.5%
|
0 (Currently at
peak)
|
About Zillow:
Zillow, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z) operates the
largest home-related marketplaces on mobile and the Web, with a
complementary portfolio of brands and products that help people
find vital information about homes, and connect with the best local
professionals. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading
economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow's Chief Economist Dr.
Stan Humphries. Dr. Humphries and his team of economists and data
analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more
than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also
sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which
asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and
investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow
Home Value Index over the next five years. Zillow also sponsors the
bi-annual Zillow Housing Confidence Index (ZHCI) which measures
consumer confidence in local housing markets, both currently and
over time. The Zillow, Inc. portfolio
includes Zillow.com®, Zillow Mobile, Zillow Mortgage
Marketplace, Zillow Rentals, Zillow Digs®, Postlets®, Diverse
Solutions®, Agentfolio®, Mortech®, HotPads™, StreetEasy® and
Retslyâ„¢. The company is headquartered in Seattle.
Zillow.com, Zillow, Zestimate, Postlets, Mortech, Diverse
Solutions, StreetEasy, Agentfolio and Digs are registered
trademarks of Zillow, Inc. HotPads and Retsly are trademarks
of Zillow, Inc.
i The Zillow Real Estate Market Reports are a monthly
overview of the national and local real estate markets. The reports
are compiled by Zillow Real Estate Research. For more information,
visit www.zillow.com/research/. The data in Zillow's Real Estate
Market Reports are aggregated from public sources by a number of
data providers for 928 metropolitan and micropolitan areas dating
back to 1996. Mortgage and home loan data are typically recorded in
each county and publicly available through a county recorder's
office. All current monthly data at the national, state, metro,
city, ZIP code and neighborhood level can be accessed at
www.zillow.com/local-info/ and www.zillow.com/research/data.
ii The Zillow Home Value Forecast uses data from past
home value trends and current market conditions, including leading
indicators like home sales, months of housing inventory supply and
unemployment, to predict home values over the next 12 months for
the nation and for more than 250 markets across the country.
iii The Zillow Home Value Index is the median
estimated home value for a given geographic area on a given day and
includes the value of all single-family residences, condominiums
and cooperatives, regardless of whether they sold within a given
period. It is expressed in dollars, and seasonally adjusted.
iv The Zillow Rent Index is the median Rent
Zestimate® (estimated monthly rental price) for a given geographic
area on a given day, and includes the value of all single-family
residences, condominiums, cooperatives and apartments in Zillow's
database, regardless of whether they are currently listed for rent.
It is expressed in dollars.
v Metro areas with 0% in this column are areas where
home values have already reached or exceeded pre-recession peak
levels.
SOURCE Zillow, Inc.