TAKING THE PULSE: French financial services companies are expected to produce steadier first quarter numbers this week, a first step toward putting the ugly end to 2008 behind them.

The corporate and investment bank divisions of BNP Paribas SA (BNP.FR) and Societe Generale SA (GLE.FR) should post healthier trading performances compared with the fourth quarter, driven by their fixed-income businesses.

The deteriorating global economy is expected to continue to take its toll on companies' assets, though.

Both BNP Paribas and Societe Generale are expected to book hefty provisions as a result, putting a drag on profit. That said, French retail banking "should provide more defensiveness than most other European countries," Deutsche Bank notes.

COMPANIES TO WATCH

---BNP Paribas SA (BNP.FR)---(Wednesday May 6)

MARKET EXPECTATIONS: An improvement is expected at BNP Paribas' corporate and investment bank division after the red ink it spilled over the company's income statement in the last three months of 2008. The performance should be helped in particular by the bank's strong position in fixed-income activities. The group's overall earnings are still expected to suffer from further provisions and monoline exposure, prompting a sharp year-on-year drop in net profit.

MAIN FOCUS: Analysts will be hoping for more detail on synergies from the Fortis acquisition after shareholders approved the deal last week. Any details on the prospects for BNP Paribas' different businesses during the second quarter and the rest of the year will be closely followed, as the bank has so far said only that it is "well positioned in the 2009 environment." Attention will also be paid to trends at U.S. unit BancWest amid the weakening U.S. economy.

---Societe Generale SA (GLE.FR)---(Thursday May 7)

MARKET EXPECTATIONS: A better showing in the corporate and investment bank's fixed-income business is expected to contrast with a mixed performance in equities. Provisions are seen eating deeply into net profit compared with a year ago.

MAIN FOCUS: Analysts will be looking for more clarity on the state of assets at Societe Generale's investment banking and asset management activities after a report in the French press fueled concern last week.

Eyes will also be trained on the quality of assets at Societe Generale's international retail banking activities in central and eastern Europe. Question marks continue to hover over the health of businesses in countries like Russia.

---Axa SA (AXA)---(Thursday May 7)

MARKET EXPECTATIONS: Axa's first quarter report is not generally seen as a major event, as the insurer only discloses key indicators and not full earnings.

Axa's numbers are unlikely to enthuse investors, analysts suggest. "We expect the news on trading, particularly life new business and asset management revenues to be lackluster," said Bank of America-Merrill Lynch.

MAIN FOCUS: Attention will be paid to how Axa's other asset management activities are faring after AllianceBernstein last month reported $20 billion in net outflows for the first quarter.

Analysts will also be listening out for comments on solvency and the group's sensitivity to shifts in markets.

-By Jethro Mullen, Dow Jones Newswires; 33 1 4017 1738; jethro.mullen@dowjones.com