Fannie Mae (QB) (FNMAS) Quote

I own both. I don't bash anyone except the FHFA (current director excluded, so far).

Freak

LOL ..."Get off my lawn"

Send in the Clowns….dont bother they are here.

you Ps need to shut up and push for success in common stock price and best case uplist and release, u just dont get it, C goes down so does Ps. like trying to teach children who never listen. although it is too late, Pulte really screwed the pooch by posturing himself in public and completely botching his statements.

I think the rest of my 50s hit $20 tomorrow...

Dummy Ps need to be cheerleading for Commons/Preferred instead of bashing, how dumb or hate filled can you be to cut your nose to spite your face.

I expected Ps to go higher as well. I own both so it's not a big issue with me. Ps will be at par, or better, soon enough.

P Freaks are invading commons board. Asking really dumb questions, they are soo desperate not to have common price exceed P price. It’s priceless. At least p prices going up for the sake of the group. Today is priceless.

.I am expecting $50 preferreds to go to at least 40% par - $20/share

FNMAS up 25% to $15
FNMA up 25% to $9.31

I underestimated common and overestimated preferreds

Sounds reasonable. Nobody knows at this point.

Lots of shouting and high-fives on the commons board. Any thoughts on tomorrow?
It should be a good day. Trying to keep a level head but I believe this could be the beginning of the end, so...I am expecting $50 preferreds to go to at least 40% par - $20/share

FNMAS up 25% to $15
FNMA up 25% to $9.31

That is my wild ass guess and I pray I am being overly conservative...

Lots of shouting and high-fives on the commons board. Any thoughts on tomorrow?

Bloomberg interview with Pulte...She asks about conservatorship a few times. Pulte dodges but ultimately states that it is up to Trump. Does not want to talk about any meetings he might or might not of had with Treasury Secretary.

https://x.com/BloombergTV/status/1919824357053845999

Fwiw. Tried shorting FNMAS against long in 50s. The spread as represented as a % of par is as wide as I've seen it. I get the bid for liquidity but 1200-1400bp Differentials is crazy.

Anyhow to get to the point....there was no borrow available on FNMAS.

Illiquid JPS offered again this morning. Any thoughts out there especially in light of T's SWF meeting yday.

Most jps went offered this afternoon. Not in big size but enough where most illiquid series suddenly got offered down $0.50 +/- from their previous trades. Could be a classic once momentum shifts and try to sell you realize the liquidity isn't there so you offer down because desperately need to move paper. Could be someone trying to squeeze out weak hands, but seemed very coordinated.

Anyhow Bessent out of Trump inner circle and Stephen Miller is your main man. Lutnick is closer to the inner circle right now than Bessent. Anyone have thoughts on impact of a Bessent departure on GSE release? Anyone have any read of Miller's view of GSE release?

Anyone know of acrimony between Bessent and Ackman? Have heard rumors there is little love lost. Guys like that....the only thing better than making $ is helping that next guy you dislike lose $. Hopefully Paulson stays quiet.

Most jps went offered this afternoon. Not in big size but enough where most illiquid series suddenly got offered $0.50 +/- from their previous trades. Could be a classic once momentum shifts and try to sell you realize the liquidity isn't there so you offer down because desperately need to move paper. Could be someone trying to squeeze out weak hands, but seemed very coordinated.

Anyhow Bessent out of Trump inner circle and Stephen Miller is your main man. Lutnick is closer to the inner circle right now than Bessent. Anyone have any read of Miller's view of GSE release?

Anyone know of acrimony between Bessent and Ackman? Have heard rumors there is little love lost. Guys like that....the only thing better than making $ is helping that next guy you dislike lose $. Hopefully Paulson stays quiet.

FNMAS 10$. no more then a year ago, the Bradford files, said Ps going to Par, and Commons going to 10c.
Now FNMA is more than half the price of FNMAS. Is Bradford a Jim Cramer of GSEs? will Ps go to 10c and Commons go to 10$?
Stay tuned, I think Ps going to Par and Commons going above Par long term. which makes every P, half right.

CNBC: Privatization of Fannie and Freddie

My preferreds were up 9% last week.
Commons didn't do too well.
Hmmmmmm ... go figure.

Good Lambo ruling....positive Pulte posts....FT article on SWF and a complete dud in terms of SP today

Ps up 8%. Dey doin good.

JPS should rip if Pulte post confirmation Tweets indicative of a quick move to exit. Commons still need a lot to go right including lowered cap requirements and no sps conversion. Most 50s have room to more than triple from current levels!

Ps liked the Pulte news, dey all up. Commons, they are so beat up after 15 years they dont know which end is up sometimes. actually they have almost no following, but they will

Hey KTCarneyFFFreakShow, what happened to Bradford, why are Commons more than half = to some Preferreds?
rhetorical question dont bother chiming in with ur 3rd grade comments. bunch of 🤡

Did something change in the story? Feels like it based on JPS and common price action of the last few weeks
Not in my opinion...I view it as the twins following the market.

Pulte nomination hearing uninspiring, Calabria rehired
I am happy Pulte flew under the radar during the confirmation hearing. I didn't expect for him to say he would take them out of conservatorship. I am good with him echoing the comments of the Treasury Secretary...For whatever reason, my gut is telling me that Calabria won't be a roadblock for us.

Trump meeting with Paulson
Where did you see that Trump met with Paulson?

If exit is the very highly likely path and the journey begins near term does it make sense that jps by in large trading at one-third of "par" still?
No, but after being in these stocks for 16 years I have a "believe it when I see it" attitude and I believe most people are in that camp as well...I still believe we will start to see movement after Pulte is confirmed by end of March / early April. Trump is moving fast on all of his objectives and I don't see privatization of FnF being any different.

Did something change in the story? Feels like it based on JPS and common price action of the last few weeks. Pulte nomination hearing uninspiring, Calabria rehired, Trump meeting with Paulson. If exit is the very highly likely path and the journey begins near term does it make sense that jps by in large trading at one-third of "par" still?

"...while their conservatorships should not be indefinite, any exit from conservatorship must be carefully planned to ensure the safety and soundness of the housing market without upward pressures on mortgage rates." - Bill Pulte
https://www.banking.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/pulte_testimony_2-27-25.pdf

WE GOT LESS THAN 90 DAYS until we find out how they are going to fund this thing? Could the DJT admin be wanting some $200 billion quick cash ??? 90 days lets see.
https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2025/02/10/2025-02477/a-plan-for-establishing-a-united-states-sovereign-wealth-fund

Chart looks very similar to Dec 7th behaviour. BUT, with so many external variables rights now with potential release. However it does give you an insight into support. Just look at teh 5 day moving average, when theres support for an upswing we see it stay above that 5 day line and when support drops off it always stays below it just. So forecasting this week could we see another Dec 7th upswing starting ???

French Hill calls on White House to take lead on releasing Fannie, Freddie

With all the Gov insider trading I wonder how many have jumped into Fannie & Freddie on the rumour of release and making large gains for shareholders! You know dam well if a few members in Gov are invested they are now going to push for release or lose there money !!!!
Bullish

Bill Pulte - FHFA Director nominated by Trump

If this is true then Mark Calabria is out for FHFA director

I have a feeling it will be a rehash of what he wrote 2014. Hopefully, he has some new information from his conversations with the incoming Trump team.

I believe the Treasury confirmation hearing is where the big news will come from...

It's a better platform also. Locked and ready for it! I did ask the question about dividends and when he thinks they might get turned back on. Let's hope he says something about them.

Bill Ackman moving his presentation to X Live on Thursday, 1/16 9am EST

https://x.com/billackman/status/1879279118224667121

Presentation link: https://x.com/i/broadcasts/1vOxwrjeZgbJB

THE JPS V COMMON investment, which is better ???

Well that depends on how you want the out come to be for your investment.

Sort term reward = common sell and move on cash out. The dividends for common ( if they ever turn back on) might be small to start with but as Tim P said on X.com over time it will be rewarding.

JPS = Dividends quickly. Once released from C-ship dividends will be turn back on the JPS . I looked into passed dividends for 3 series from 2004 to 2007. So one would guess its going to be double now with the market cap and Net in come since those years. If released in 2025, JPS holders could see 1st Q dividends in 2026 ?? that soon !!

There's a possibility that the JPS won't see any dilution!
That is what Bill A was meaning when he explained what the plan might be.
No mention of JPS in that plan. He stands to make a good return on his JPS if he still holds them.

That would put then back on Dividends once released. Before any IPO .As soon as the Government states the LP and SPSA is redeemed then next in line is JPS of which would mean divs get turned back on

FNMAS hit $12 and FNMAG is at $19.96 thanks to Bill Ackman

$20 coming soon

Preferreds continue their slow march upwards...FNMAS hitting new 52 week highs and the other $25 preferreds are still doing better than the $50s. Hopefully that will equalize in the coming weeks.

FMCKJ closed higher than FMNAS for the first time in a long time... $11.15 vs $11.14

Also, FMCKJ had 4.89M in volume vs. 4.52M for FMCC. More $$$ moving into preferreds

Yes they are continuing too out preform commons for now. This has always been a horse race over the years. With certin info released the common seem a better beat then pop, info comes out that makes JPS a better beat.

All in all both came be a great investment. I’m hold my JPS for dividends in the future if the GSE’s get released and that now shows in the price range as the talok now seems that the Gov will want to cash in the warrants but cancel the SPSA.

FOR THE RELEASE TO HAPPEN, everyone needs to get a piece of the pie in the deal !

Everyone includes:
Current shareholders common and JPS
Large hedge fund investors
All current Plaintiffs in all court cases

There’s lots of ideas that has been put forward by board members and public with different levels of information be it first hand or second hand info and prospectus on the out come.
With that out of the way let me chime in from what I know ( Not much) and where this could end up ( wild guess on my part). But a gut feeling based on events so far and the behaviour of a few in the new DJT Admin.

Just to be clear: I own both JPS Fannie and Freddie & Freddie common shares and want both to do well !!

Since working for a Large New York family construction/ developer who builds, Condos, Multi use buildings Hotels and casinos for over 10 years being in around that indirectly and be given full access to 2 multi million $$ hotel/ casino projects all the paperwork war legal side of it and all the hoops you have to do before you even break ground is mind blowing. That’s where these types of guys aka DJT, Bill, John, Buffet etc etc pride themselves on the, as DJT wrote a book about it ( THE ART OF THE DEAL)

I’ve met DJT on 2 occasions as he and my boss were building a casino together in Atlantic city a few years back and like my boss he was a sharp talker and shot from the hip. It was all about making a deal and getting the best out of the deal with a little give and take on each side. That’s how it works in NY with these guys.

So lets look what we have on the table from Investors side aka Bill, John and other large investors, maybe Buffet but that’s a long shot.

Both or all have large holdings of common shares and large holdings or JPS to hedge against if the common deal didn’t go there way.!!
Putting up $100’s millions on a gamble is not how these guys operate not even close! Their plan all along was to buy enough of the float band together and negotiate with the Government on a DEAL !!
That deal could be anything but we know that the DJT admin wants to release the GES’s and these big investors want a deal.

So what will most likely happen is :

1, So it would be to forgive the settlement money and settle all other cases in exchange for the SPSA and the release of the GES’s.

2, Gov to convert warrants to common and IPO them to investors first @ a discount ( aka) the big guys and settled cases with plaintiffs . The discount is to offset the dilution in drop of share price. Keep that in mind it’s very important part of the deal ( The discount of new shares is to offset the dilution and drop in share price) Why you may ask?? At the time of the TAKEOVER common shares in both were around $20-$30 and dropping !!

By the Gov converting the warrants to common shares they are getting (FREE MONEY) Remember the Gov has loaned the GES’s $100 billion. The other $87 billion came from the cash the Gov stole from the companies when the took them into conservatorship in Sept 2008. That part has never been challenged and it really pisses me off how the Gov can steel $87 billion in cash from private companies without the 5th amendment in play. The Gov knows it’s been paid back well over what they loaned.

Remember this! page 7
In summer 2007, as subprime mortgage defaults escalated, issuance of non-agency mortgage-
backed securities. Fannie & Freddie only had $300 million of these loans on there books!
By the end of 2007, the two firms owned over $300 billion of non-agency
mortgage-backed securities.

QUOTE: page 2 https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr719.pdf
U.S. taxpayers ultimately injected $187.5 billion into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

REMEMBER THAT NUMBER $87 BILLION of share holders money !!!!

THE GOV DIDN’T LOAN US THERE MONEY THEY BORROWED IT FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE @ A DISCOUNTED GOV RATE THEN CHARGED THE COMPANIES A 10% INTEREST ON THERE 2.5 % LOAN INTEREST + 10% ON OUR (COMPANIES $87 BILLION)

COUNRT CASES
DJT Admin will not appeal the Federal Court of claims jury verdict for shareholders 8-0. They lost big time and to fight it would NOT be in the best interests of both parties. Remember both parties including us shareholders want our companies back.

All these court cases have standing and eats up time so the Gov will settle out of court sell at a discount IPO these these people and hedge funds , companies. With the new shares and release this group will recoup a large amount of what they lost when the Gov stole the GES’s.

3, That leaves all cases settled with Plaintiffs and Plaintiffs shares. Large investors with more share @ a discounted rate to offset there large investments and current share holders with a small pice of the pie but roughly the same share price at time of conservatorship Sept 2008.

It’s up to the DJT to release the GSE’s not congress as per

6 The 79.9 percent ownership stake was selected to avoid the necessity to consolidate the assets and liabilities
of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac onto the government’s balance sheet. See Swagel (2009, p. 37).
7 The senior preferred stock purchase agreements also included various covenants. Specifically, Treasury
approval is required before: 1) purchasing, redeeming or issuing any capital stock or paying dividends; 2)
terminating conservatorship other than in connection with receivership; 3) increasing debt to greater than 110
percent of that outstanding as of June 30, 2008; or 4) acquiring, consolidating, or merging into another entity.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr719.pdf

I my view if the world was honest, The Gov would return what it stole from the companies and pay back all the money it stole from the compaines but that’s never going to happen!
Bullish

FnF $50 preferreds are starting to catch up to the $25 preferreds...Par average is about 34% vs 38% now.

Preferreds booming....FNMAS now ~47% of par.

Preferred stock is a bunch of garbage. Best to own the commons. Sky is the limit. So go ahead open your wallet and fill it up with the commons. You’re gonna love the way your brokerage account looks I guarantee it.
You are the Jim Cramer of Fannie and Freddie!

FNMAS/FNMA ratio...4.88:1

Not so, we are seeing a cooling of both sides common and JPS. Not the 2016 highs yet from when DJT won but be interesting over the next  few weeks if we keep moving up after Jan 6th