Halozyme Therapeutics Incorporated (HALO) Quote

Also, could the extension of the Enhanze patent play into this?

That might be true and ultimately a good strategy. However, she should have never guided 3 deals for 2023 (including a HVAI) and still not delivered 9 months into 2024.

Despite of this shortcoming, halozyme is still a bargain.

FWIW, here's my theory on why new deals are being delayed.

As I mentioned in a previous post, a letter to the editor in Barron's a few weeks ago said that CMS is going to come out with more detailed regulations this fall regarding the ground rules for the next round of drug price negotiations. These new regs will spell out, among other things, whether developing a new, subcutaneous version of a blockbuster drug previously administered IV is a big enough change to justify resetting the clock and effectively postponing the day of reckoning when a Big Pharma will have to negotiate prices with Medicare for one of its best-selling products. As I recall, Merck is betting on this scenario by investing many millions in a subQ version of its blockbuster pembrolizumab (Keytruda).

If the letter writer is correct, and Helen believes the regulations coming out this fall will strengthen her hand in negotiating royalties, then it may be in her interest to wait until after the updated regs are issued to finalize a deal. If she is right, they will strengthen her hand in negotiating higher/richer royalties of maybe in the low double digits. If she is wrong, then her fallback position would be the mid-single digit percentage royalty deals she's been negotiating with partners all along.

These are multi-year royalty deals we're talking about, with big implications for revenue over an extended period, so it may be in Halo's best interest to wait, especially if Helen thinks the new regs will strengthen her negotiating position.

-- OJ

I concur with this post from another board regarding JPM’s rating earlier today:

“Not only this analyst is a joke, but the investors following him are unable to read by themselves: EPS grows by 40% this year, 20% next year, 25% in 2026 and 2027.
PE is 16, ROE is 150%! EV/S seems high at 10. But the revenue has high gross margin (70%) as half is made out of royalties (higher percentage next years). This is a typical Warren Buffett stock, although the visibility is limited until 2028 now.
The development risk with this pharma is very low as it uses a better modality to deliver pre-existing blockbusters. It is difficult to find something as boring as this with high growth and low risk. This is shooting fish in a barrel, per Charlie Munger.”

Here is why while you are right about Helen’s inability to deliver new deals (2023-2024 so far), you are wrong about the direction of the share-price.

Page 14 on

https://s28.q4cdn.com/284259014/files/doc_financials/2024/q2/HALO-2Q24-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-FINAL-004.pdf

EVEN WITHOUT A SINGLE NEW DEAL, the top and bottom lines are projected to grow over 20% per year until at least 2028. Also, despite the recent run up, halo is still trading at a forward (2024) PE of around 16 and PEG of 0.6

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/halo/price-earnings-peg-ratios

Halozyme is a great bargain and will be trading much higher over time even without new deals and despite the current management shortcoming.

If we get new deals or a new CEO, it would be icing on the cake.

There are some crazy posts...glad biotechinvestor1 isn't one of them...
Thank you!

It’s hard to fathom what is going on with Helen. If I remember correctly, she started promising 3 new deals in early’23!!! It’s kind of risky for a CEO to lie. Is she delusional? What serious potential partners would spend 10-12 months “discussing” a simple licensing deal? I find it absurd. And what about the board? Can’t they see the horrible stock performance? We are barely 20% up from Feb ‘21 in spite of Darzalex Faspro’s tremendous growth. Are they all happy to rest on their laurels, bury their heads in the sand, and cash in their stock options? How long has it been since we had a Chief Medical Officer? Do they really believe that they have no competition, “they are the only game in town”, “everyone else is really early”?

Someone should let them know that stocks are about the future. I am not sure what else Alteogen has in the pipeline but SC Keytruda has not been approved, and yet their market cap is almost 14 billion dollars. The stock is up over 350% from a year ago, 3,390% from 5 years ago.

No. If history can be a guide (your posts over the past several years are here on this board for anyone to see), you will post a series of bearish posts that will defy the fundamentals and realities of halozyme. Halozyme will continue to appreciate in price. Later in the share-price run up, you will claim that you had been long that whole time but that there are better investments out there than halo. Then you will disappear.

Nonetheless, your posts are entertaining and always appreciated.

The company is fine. After the last call I felt the stock would “drift”. While its drifted nicely up (over 10 percent after this sell off) there’s still a chance we could go lower especially since this quarter is going to be flat. They will deliver in new deals at some point but drifting until then.

A predictable yawner… I encourage you to buy, “hand-over-fist” this “juicy bargain”. Enjoy yourself now, Bubba, at least as far as my account goes, the days of joy are numbered. Just as I said, I am outa here come late October. I will be very pleased to flash such a bullish sign for you, and lick my wounds in misery.

Yes! Easycomeandgo is back posting on this board. Welcome back. Order is restored. Our full set of permabears are all well and posting again.

Very bullish sign! Dips are to be bought hand-over-fist.

Come on Mr. Market give us more juicy bargains.

Look at the permabears get all excited for a neutral rating by JPM. These are the same permabears who were forecasting doom and gloom when we were in low $30’s (as well as $20’s and teens). We have doubled in share-price since. Now with a neutral analyst rating and a 5% share-price drop, they claim they have been right all along.

The amusing part is that despite the neutral rating, JPM raised its target price! Notice they don’t think we are heading back to the $30’s where these permabears were bearish.

There are plenty other (majority of) analysts with buy ratings and much higher price targets (some in the $70’s). Morgan Stanley has provided some of the best research/coverage on halo over the years. They raised their target price from $59 to $64 just last month and maintained a buy rating.

Overall, I’m happy to see permabears back posting with excitement. Historically, this has been a bullish sign.

I did not have any idea about how any outfit was going to rate HALO stock, but this is about what I feared in terms of outlook when I lamented that the majority of my remaining position would not go long term until October. Since then, I have sold what I could, 25% of my position had gone long term. No regrets about selling. I know that the issuer of permabear shareholder ratings (such delightful wit) is going to now savor the moment and declare even more dire insights into the minds of fellow shareholders. I continue to believe, without knocking HALO, that better investment avenues exist at this moment. Not bearish, just not bullish. There does exist a neutral avenue.

Our recent conversations with the company suggest that there are up to 20 open slots across existing partners that have yet to be nominated for development, and that HALO is in “broad-based” discussions with pharma and biotech companies for new deals.

This quote says it all. He is calling out Helen for her endless bullshit. I'm only surprised that it took this long for analysts to start to see through her. Others will soon follow suit.

Exactly. Happy talk from Helen is not going to cut it anymore. The more time that goes by without a deal, the more one suspects she is not capable of running this company and has been not telling the truth about HALO's future prospects. Time is running out, and quickly.

JPM: “ Despite raising our price target to reflect more value for future product royalties, we struggle to find a strong upside case from current levels that does not rely on giving even more credit. With the stock now at $62/sh, we are moving to the sidelines and lowering our rating to reflect HALO trading at a level we see as fully valued. What could get us more constructive from here? 1) the announcement of partnership(s) with attractive economics, ideally from large biopharma companies that reinforce the long-term value of the Enhanze platform and 2) more visibility into the performance of Wave 4 and Wave 5 products. Our recent conversations with the company suggest that there are up to 20 open slots across existing partners that have yet to be nominated for development, and that HALO is in “broad-based” discussions with pharma and biotech companies for new deals. We believe the bigger the partner, the more it will reinforce the value of HALO’s platform as we edge closer to the Enhanze LOE. Bigger picture, with HALO stock blowing past even our updated, higher valuation, we struggle with the case for further upside relative to other stocks in our coverage and would revisit this based on changes in the story and/or stock price.”

As I feared, JPM downgraded to neutral even though they raised their Dec. ‘25 PT from $52 to $57. They are moving to the sidelines because they feel it is more than fully valued. Basically, they want to see the “broad-based” discussions turn into new partnerships. The bigger the partner, the more it will validate the Enhanze platform, a hint that another partnership with a tiny company like ABOS will not cause them to upgrade. It’s not exactly encouraging that their Dec. ‘25 is lower than the Nov ‘22 high.

I get emails from refinitive which gives me updates. Don’t have a link.

I get emails from refinitive which gives me updates. Don’t have a link.

Where did you see that? Link?

Benchmark upped to 75 price target from 60.

From Artisan:

"Halozyme Therapeutics surged higher after it reported better-than-expected Q2 results and reconfirmed its current-year guidance. Cash flow growth during the quarter was driven by a 12% increase in royalty revenues, although we note that some of these revenues were pulled forward from Q3 to Q2. Based on talks management is having with other biotech companies, we think the company will secure more new deals this year to license its ENHANZE® drug delivery platform. We value Halozyme’s high cash flows, which it has used to support share buybacks."

HALO near a 52 week high

I see a proper return and a short squeeze next week. Hold onto those shares

"The company recently reported that it has 10.04 million shares sold short, which is 10.74% of all regular shares that are available for trading. Based on its trading volume, it would take traders 7.75 days to cover their short positions on average"

I see the market doesn't agree that it's a 'gimmee'.

Not to the dedicated few. Neither milestone payments could be included in year end financials nor near term income.

Neither of these approvals is much of a surprise.

Volume seems pretty lite for a news day.

Volume seems pretty lite for a news day.

The cadence with halo at least for 2024 has been to run up ahead (weeks to months) of anticipated catalysts, then take a haircut (5-10%) a week (or two) before the news release and then resume a sustained run up.

FDA approves atezolizumab and hyaluronidase-tqjs for subcutaneous injection

On September 12, 2024, the Food and Drug Administration approved atezolizumab and hyaluronidase-tqjs (Tecentriq Hybreza, Genentech, Inc.) for subcutaneous injection for all the adult indications as the intravenous formulation of atezolizumab (Tecentriq, Genentech, Inc.), including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), small cell lung cancer (SCLC), hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), melanoma, and alveolar soft part sarcoma (ASPS). See the prescribing information for the specific indications.


Source: usfda@public.govdelivery.com

-- OJ

I've been in since $1.88 and I'll be half out at $80. Then let it ride

I think Helen has a better understanding of the new partnerships in the pipeline.

I feel ya though, I'm tired of hearing "In final talks", regarding partnerships. Time to sign, my dear

Another nibble @ 58.98.
I'm thinking a 10% jump (if it's an up market day), Followed by a pullback to 5-8% gain, the following day.
Based on drug valuation, historical reactions, 52 week high and mostly the markets emotional response.

I hope the longs had a chance to load up more :)

Atezolizumab SC approval on slide 5.
September 15, 2024.

This is a Sunday. Does the FDA announce things on a Sunday?

I would hope that CDMO is picking up the difference since their large expansion. Still don't know why they don't buy CDMO and have everything in house.

Something interesting :https://finance.yahoo.com/news/q1-2025-avid-bioservices-inc-105934221.html. link from yahoo.
Avid Bioservices and Catalent are Halozymes fill and finish resources for the enzyme. Quote below is from Avid latest call ins the Q and A. Couple this question with the article below where the plants at Catalent are being sold to someone Halozyme is not that thrilled with and you wonder where is the excess product we are going to need in the future is going to come from.

"I wanted to ask about Halozyme, which obviously a key customer was over half your revenue in fiscal '23, but that was down to about a third and fiscal 2024.
Can you just give us an update around what exactly happened in fiscal 2023, how Halozyme revenues trended so far are trended so far in the first quarter and kind of what you're baking in for Halozyme revenue here in fiscal 2025 and just your overall level of visibility into revenue this year from this key customer?"

Couple this question with the article: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/novo-catalent-deal-affects-halozyme-081711085.html? When you read this you have to wonder what is Halozyme doing for production as the need for more product is going up every year.

Page 5 of Halo’s most recent Halozyme slide deck (see link below)

Upcoming Potential
Approvals

• Ocrelizumab SC (U.S.),
September 13, 2024
• Atezolizumab SC (U.S.),
September 15, 2024
• Nivolumab SC (U.S.)
December 29, 2024

But I’m not seeing Atezolizumab SC (U.S.) on FDA’s PDUFA date calendar!?

Does anyone else see it?

https://s28.q4cdn.com/284259014/files/doc_financials/2024/q2/HALO-2Q24-Earnings-Deck-FINAL-FINAL-004.pdf

Thank you, Mr. Market for giving us a chance to load up with a 10% discount (from recent all time high) ahead of the two blockbuster ENHANZE/halozyme PDUFA dates next week

Good that they have money to count. And yes Merck is late to the party. They should have SC keytruda on the market by now.

Ok great, I am convinced, a company with a billion dollar product has no competition, no other company has any interest now and never will, cool. And Merck are fools for wasting time and money on a worthless product, idiots.

Go HALOoooooooo up please.......with no competition in the future, it is clear sailing up.

P.S. Nice Housnlab pipeline chart Howeeme, wish that the no competition company HALO would have a helpful informative pipeline an investor could quickly look to determine what is it they are working on. Guess they are to busy counting their money and not looking behind for the non-existing competition.

https://huonslab.com/layout/eng/home.php?go=pipeline. They are a long way away from anything.

Merck is late to the game. Years away from any approval. If anything they will lose share to opdivo.

Sorry, some of the comments are a bit confusing, not sure what some are trying state.

In any case, I see them as competition and will continue following the progress being made.

Patent filings by both Alteogen and Merck, along with clinical trials, shows Merck is making progress on Hybrozyme (ALT-B4, MK-5180). Merck is actually carrying the heavy load, while Alteogen reaps benefits.

IMO, Merck is pushing thru with the MK-5180 because in the long run it will be significantly cheaper then dealing with HALO. They will also have control of the product and will be cheaply expanding it into other products, making their products more competitive.

https://www.oncologypipeline.com/apexonco/mercks-subq-keytruda-headscratcher

Coded MK-3475A, co-formulation with Alteogen's MK-5180 (rh hyaluronidase)

https://www.freepatentsonline.com/y2024/0150467.html

COMPOSITIONS AND METHODS FOR TREATING CANCER WITH SUBCUTANEOUS ADMINISTRATION OF ANTI-PD1 ANTIBODIES

https://www.freepatentsonline.com/WO2024091417A1.html

HUMAN HYALURONIDASE 1 MUTANTS

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06504394

A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Coformulated With Hyaluronidase (MK-3475A) in Participants With Relapsed or Refractory Classical Hodgkin Lymphoma (rrcHL) or Relapsed or Refractory Primary Mediastinal Large B-cell Lymphoma (rrPMBCL)(MK-3475A-F65)

Huonslab's Hydiffuze is same sequence with halo's
after few years, Huonslab is not competitor

Okay, thanks.

Okay, thanks.

Okay, thanks. I forgot about that and I guess Tecentriq is PD- L1 so they were allowed to use it.

It's very easy to buy both stocks!
nowadays, many Koreans buy a US stocks instead of Korean stocks.

well, i think it just 'TIME' view
Until just a few years ago, SC injection did not get noticed in the market.
Merck needed a means to defend the patent expiration, They realized that the IV to SC change was the answer.
But, Halo was already under contract with BMS(PD-1 exclusive), so they found alteogen

In Korea, there lots of reports of this.
Alteogen has found a way to evade ENHAZE's patents, which it has been granted registration permission by the PCT and U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, and they are bolstering the patent chain to prevent the entry of competitors other than Halo and Alteogen.