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36.82
-0.71
(-1.89%)
At close: December 06 4:00PM
36.8301
0.0101
( 0.03% )
After Hours: 6:20PM

Empower your portfolio: Real-time discussions and actionable trading ideas.

Key stats and details

Current Price
36.8301
Bid
-
Ask
-
Volume
10,821,810
36.745 Day's Range 37.41
25.67 52 Week Range 44.22
Market Cap
Previous Close
37.53
Open
37.41
Last Trade
1
@
36.86
Last Trade Time
18:20:26
Financial Volume
$ 400,798,135
VWAP
37.0361
Average Volume (3m)
19,457,748
Shares Outstanding
416,703,000
Dividend Yield
-
PE Ratio
11.86
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
3.1
Revenue
277.07M
Net Profit
1.29B

About VanEck Gold Miners ETF

The investment seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in common stocks and depositary receipts of companies involved in the gold mining industr... The investment seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index. The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in common stocks and depositary receipts of companies involved in the gold mining industry. The index is a modified market-capitalization weighted index primarily comprised of publicly traded companies involved in the mining for gold and silver. The fund is non-diversified. Show more

Sector
Mgmt Invt Offices, Open-end
Industry
Mgmt Invt Offices, Open-end
Headquarters
New York, New York, USA
Founded
-
VanEck Gold Miners ETF is listed in the Mgmt Invt Offices, Open-end sector of the American Stock Exchange with ticker GDX. The last closing price for VanEck Gold Miners ETF was $37.53. Over the last year, VanEck Gold Miners ETF shares have traded in a share price range of $ 25.67 to $ 44.22.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF currently has 416,703,000 shares outstanding. The market capitalization of VanEck Gold Miners ETF is $15.64 billion. VanEck Gold Miners ETF has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of 11.86.

GDX Latest News

YieldMax GDXY Name Change

MILWAUKEE, Jan. 25, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tidal Financial Group, a leading provider of ETF structuring, launch, and growth services, announces that the YieldMax GDX Option Income Strategy ETF...

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S&P 500 Corrects In Breadth

Good shallow S&P 500 downswing opportunity was lost yesterday premarket – and the almost neutral manufacturing data didn‘t force buyers Read more https://www.valuewalk.com/sp-500-corrects-in...

If The USDX Fell So Much, Why Didn’t Gold Truly Soar?

It’s always darkest before dawn, and the feeling is most bullish before the top. Is the sentiment (unnecessarily) positive right Read more https://www.valuewalk.com/if-the-usdx-fell-so-much-why-d...

USD’s Decline That’s… Bearish For Gold?!

Gold and USD Index are always connected – the former can’t break from the currency it’s priced in. And right Read more https://www.valuewalk.com/usds-decline-thats-bearish-for-gold/

S&P 500 Late Day Reversal Worry

S&P 500 and real assets benefited from underwhelming non-farm payrolls, but the positive moves including in bonds were erased in Read more https://www.valuewalk.com/sp-500-late-day-reversal-w...

Massive Gaming Celebrates Global Launch of House of Blackjack with USDC Earning Race

Sydney, Australia, July 10th, 2023, Chainwire Massive Gaming has announced the launch of House of Blackjack, a realistic Vegas-style online Read more https://www.valuewalk.com/massive-gaming-cele...

Breathers In Mining Stocks Are Not Real Rallies

A bearish signal behind silver’s recent surge that has accurately predicted market downturns before? Brace yourself for the possibility of Read more https://www.valuewalk.com/breathers-in-mining...

S&P 500 Character Changes

S&P 500 met its first setback after a while, with the view changing to sectorally and market breadth defensive. Just Read more https://www.valuewalk.com/sp-500-character-changes/

S&P 500 – As Bullish As It Gets

S&P 500 didn‘t look back following the tame core PCE report, clearly betting on no recession and Fed to declare Read more https://www.valuewalk.com/sp-500-as-bullish-as-it-gets/

PeriodChangeChange %OpenHighLowAvg. Daily VolVWAP
1-0.8899-2.3592258748737.7238.1236.711056579937.42406073SP
4-2.3999-6.1175121080839.2339.3435.31977197437.01271729SP
12-2.9699-7.4620603015139.844.2235.31945774839.4563626SP
261.87015.3492562929134.9644.2232.8351784962237.994886SP
525.990119.42315175130.8444.2225.672062334434.07012115SP
1566.270120.517342931930.5644.2221.522182961931.38480249SP
2609.710135.804203539827.1245.7816.12537282031.85569792SP

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GDX Discussion

View Posts
DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 days ago
Signal Says Target This Gold Stock Right Now
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | December 4, 2024

• Gold mining stock Newmont could finish the year strong

• NEM historically outperforms in December in the last decade

Since running into $2,700 in October, gold prices have cooled off, consolidating below this mark, though still elevated compared to the last 12 months. Gold traders have joined the the safe-haven asset in pulling back, but if past is precedent, one industry heavyweight could be ready to rally.

Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) is one of the top stocks on the SPX to own in December going back a decade. Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the miner averages a 4.4% return in December, and has finished the month higher eight times in the last 10 years.

Last seen trading at $41.42, a move of similar magnitude would help NEM put some separation between its year-to-date breakeven level. The shares hit a more than two-year high of $58.72 on Oct. 22, but have since taken a 29% cut off that peak. The round-number $40 level has stepped up as support, while the 320-day moving average could be a pivot point going forward.



Options traders remain call skewed on NEM. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), 12,737 calls have changed hands in the last 10 days, compared to just 2,926 puts. However, this ratio ranks in the middling percentile of its annual range, suggesting the rate of bullish bets may be tapering off.

Premium is affordable though, per the equity’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) of 29% that now ranks in the 11th percentile of its annual range. The stock has also tended to outperform these expectations over the past year, per its Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 97 out of 100.

Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 5 days ago
$GDX - The October high was a potential 4 year cycle high...
By: CyclesFan | December 1, 2024

• $GDX - The October high was a potential 4 year cycle high. We had a bearish reversal in November but it bottomed at the 10 month MA so the bull market top isn't confirmed yet. A monthly close below the 10 month MA will confirm a bear market into the fall of 2026.



Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 5 days ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 30, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 26810 and is trading up about 29% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26701 and overhead resistance forming above at 27185. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 7.149%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 26503. Resistance is to be found starting at 27221. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

DiscoverGold
👍️0
DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 1 week ago
$GDX - Holding the turn from conjunction of my 3rd Target Daily 200/MA & Fibs...
By: Sahara | November 27, 2024

• $GDX - Holding the turn from conjunction of my 3rd Target Daily 200/MA & Fibs.

Now tackling its 20/MA again, failure toy recover will bring the Lwr Channel-Line Fibs & Targets into focus...



Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 weeks ago
Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q3’24 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton | November 22, 2024

The mid-tier and junior gold miners in this sector’s sweet spot for upside potential just finished reporting a spectacular record quarter! All-time-high gold prices combined with relatively-contained costs catapulted unit earnings to another epic record. Those incredibly-rich profits leave mid-tiers even more undervalued relative to prevailing gold prices, portending massive catch-up rallying coming in this high-flying sector.

The leading mid-tier-gold-stock benchmark is the GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF. With $5.1b in net assets mid-week, it remains the second-largest gold-stock ETF after its big brother GDX. That is dominated by far-larger major gold miners, though there is much overlap between these ETFs’ holdings. Still misleadingly named, GDXJ is overwhelmingly a mid-tier gold-stock ETF with juniors having little weighting.

Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. Today only one of GDXJ’s 25 biggest holdings is a true junior!

Its Q3 output is highlighted in blue in the table below. Juniors not only mine less than 75k ounces per quarter, but their gold output generates over half their quarterly revenues. That excludes streaming and royalty companies that purchase future gold output for big upfront payments used to finance mine-builds, and primary silver miners producing byproduct gold. But mid-tiers often make better investments than juniors.

These gold miners dominating GDXJ offer a unique mix of sizable diversified production, excellent output-growth potential, and smaller market capitalizations ideal for outsized gains. Mid-tiers are less risky than juniors, while amplifying gold uplegs more than majors. So we’ve long specialized in the fundamentally-superior mid-tiers and juniors at Zeal, actively trading these smaller gold miners for a quarter-century now.

With gold blasting higher, this year’s pickings have been good. Our recent realized gains triggered by gold’s overdue and healthy pullback have run as high as +158%! We just started reloading our newsletter trading books this week, adding five fantastic mid-tiers and juniors with imminent big production growth from expansions and mine-builds. GDXJ itself has soared 79.5% higher at best over this past year, big gains!

Yet even they are small compared to historical precedent, really lagging gold. Its monster upleg since early October 2023 has rocketed up 53.1% at best! Before big gold uplegs give up their ghosts, the better mid-tiers and juniors often see their stock prices triple or quadruple. So the best gains in the cream-of-the-crop smaller gold miners are still ahead. Their latest quarterly fundamentals support way-higher stock prices.

For 34 quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results from GDXJ’s 25-largest component stocks. Mostly mid-tiers, they now account for 65.4% of this ETF’s total weighting. While digging through quarterlies is a ton of work, understanding smaller gold miners’ latest fundamentals really cuts through the obscuring sentiment fogs shrouding this sector. This research is essential.

This table summarizes the GDXJ top 25’s operational and financial highlights during Q3’24. These gold miners’ stock symbols aren’t all US listings, and are preceded by their rankings changes within GDXJ over this past year. The shuffling in their ETF weightings reflects shifting market caps, which reveal both outperformers and underperformers since Q3’23. Those symbols are followed by their recent GDXJ weightings.

Next comes these gold miners’ Q3’24 production in ounces, along with their year-over-year changes from the comparable Q3’23. Output is the lifeblood of this industry, with investors generally prizing production growth above everything else. After are the costs of wresting that gold from the bowels of the earth in per-ounce terms, both cash costs and all-in sustaining costs. The latter help illuminate miners’ profitability.

That’s followed by a bunch of hard accounting data reported to securities regulators, quarterly revenues, earnings, operating cash flows, and resulting cash treasuries. Blank data fields mean companies hadn’t disclosed that particular data as of the middle of this week. The annual changes aren’t included if they would be misleading, like comparing negative numbers or data shifting from positive to negative or vice-versa.

Back in mid-October before gold miners started reporting Q3 results, I wrote an essay predicting they’d achieve an epic record quarter. That indeed proved correct, with smaller gold miners well-outperforming their larger major peers. Yet despite practically printing money at these lofty gold prices, the smaller gold miners still remain largely-unknown. That should change soon with the huge numbers they are putting up!



These fundamentally-superior smaller miners’ phenomenal Q3 performances trounced those of the major-dominated GDX top 25 I analyzed in depth in last week’s essay. The mid-tiers and juniors’ epic quarter is easier to understand compared to the majors’ still-mostly-great results. That contrast begins with gold miners’ Q3 production. The GDXJ top 25’s collective output sure looks weak, falling 9.0% YoY to 3,075k ounces.

That’s much worse than the GDX top 25’s only slumping 1.4% YoY to 8,491k in Q3. And both shrinkage rates fell way behind global gold mining output according to the World Gold Council. It publishes the best-available worldwide gold fundamental data, which showed total global production actually surged an impressive 5.8% YoY to 31,824k ounces in Q3’24! But GDXJ’s shrinking output is a composition thing.

As this table shows, there’s lots of shuffling among GDXJ’s top component stocks. This ETF’s managers periodically add or remove components for various reasons. A year ago in Q3’23, the heaviest-weighted stock in this mid-tier gold-stock ETF was super-major Kinross Gold. While one of the best larger gold miners with a higher weighting in GDX too, KGC was far too big to include in GDXJ. So it was finally booted.

If KGC’s colossal 585k ounces mined in Q3’23 is replaced with the 26th-largest GDXJ component then, the GDXJ top 25’s aggregate production actually surged 10.0% YoY in Q3’24! That is wildly better than the GDX top 25’s lagging 1.4%-YoY shrinkage. Unlike majors often struggling to overcome depletion, the mid-tiers and juniors are firing on all cylinders on the output front. And this is nothing new for smaller miners...

* * *

Read Full Story »»»

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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 weeks ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 23, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 27122 and is trading up about 30% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. As of now, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 25415 yet it is trading below last month's close of 27493.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26882 and overhead resistance forming above at 27127. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 6.964%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.

DiscoverGold
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 weeks ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 23, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 19, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 234.4k, down 2.1k.



Four weeks ago, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. Gold then dropped the next couple of weeks. Last Thursday, it ticked $2,542 intraday, and that generated buying interest.

Earlier, on October 30, gold reached a new high of $2,802, having begun to rally in June at $2,305. On the way to that peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s, $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s.

Last Thursday’s defense of $2,540s-50s laid the foundation for this week’s 5.5-percent jump to $2,712/ounce. More gains are likely ahead, with immediate resistance at $2,740s, which was decisively breached on the 6th.

Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 weeks ago
$GDXJ #Miners - Dropped back after nearing my $56 Target...
By: Sahara | November 22, 2024

• $GDXJ #Miners - Dropped back after nearing my $56 Target.

Finding Spprt off the Bi/Wkly 12/MA (Mustard)...



Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
👍️0
DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 weeks ago
$GDX #Miners - B/Tested the B/Out-Band. Holding its Bi/Wkly 20/MA...
By: Sahara | November 22, 2024

• $GDX #Miners - B/Tested the B/Out-Band.

Holding its Bi/Wkly 20/MA...



Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 weeks ago
One key to gold miners we watch is the percentage of them more than 20% off their 52-week highs...
By: SentimenTrader | November 21, 2024

• One key to gold miners we watch is the percentage of them more than 20% off their 52-week highs.

The 50% threshold is roughly where we see the delineation between sustained bull and bear markets. And it's hovering right around there now. Gold bugs need to see this quickly reverse, or the precedents are ugly.



Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 3 weeks ago
$GDX - We got an 'Inv Hammer' on the Bi/Daily (Not Shown)...
By: Sahara | November 18, 2024

• $GDX - We got an 'Inv Hammer' on the Bi/Daily (Not Shown).

As it turned as hoped from the conjunction of my 3rd Target, 200/MA & 50%/Fib Area. Now needs to recover the overhead/MA's, otherwise will continue to aim for those Lwr-Targets...



Read Full Story »»»

DiscoverGold
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 3 weeks ago
Gold Miners’ Q3’24 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton | November 15, 2024

The major gold miners’ latest quarterly results proved epic! Thanks to record gold prices, they achieved record revenues, record bottom-line earnings, and record operating cash flows. Such amazing profits drove down gold-stock valuations to their most-undervalued levels in many years. These super-strong fundamentals combined with gold’s healthy and overdue pullback are creating excellent buying opportunities.

The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF remains this sector’s dominant benchmark. Birthed way back in May 2006, GDX has parlayed its first-mover advantage into an insurmountable lead. Its $13.2b of net assets mid-week dwarfed the next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF by nearly 19x! GDX is undisputedly the trading vehicle of choice in this sector, with the world’s biggest gold miners commanding most of its weighting.

Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. Those two largest categories account for over 53% of GDX.

Gold stocks have been correcting hard in recent weeks, exacerbated by gold plunging in the wake of the US elections. Traders view Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs as inflationary, slashing Fed-rate-cut odds. The prospects of higher yields going forward catapulted up the US Dollar Index a massive 2.9% in just six trading days! That shook lose colossal gold-futures selling, hammering gold 6.1% lower since Election Day.

Gold stocks per GDX plunged 11.3% in sympathy, actually making for fairly-mild 1.9x downside leverage to the metal which overwhelmingly drives their profits. Usually GDX tends to amplify material gold moves by 2x to 3x. At worst since late October, gold’s total pullback is running 7.6%. That selloff was overdue and expected. Just a few weeks earlier, I wrote a whole essay analyzing why gold’s selloff risk was high.

At best gold had soared an incredible 35.0% year-to-date, trouncing the S&P 500’s 21.9% gains! That left gold extremely-overbought, and speculators’ gold-futures positioning exceedingly-overextended. So a sentiment-rebalancing selloff on these hyper-leveraged traders normalizing their bets was inevitable. We ratcheted up trailing-stop-loss percentages on our gold-stock trades to prepare, soon realizing big-to-huge gains.

While gold stocks have surged dramatically this year, they still really lagged gold with GDX up 42.2% YTD at best in late October. Gold stocks were starting to catch up with their metal, accelerating towards that 2x-to-3x upside leverage. But GDX’s correction ignited before gold’s, after the world’s largest gold miner reported disappointing and misleading Q3 results. There’s much more below on Newmont’s latest debacle.

Gold stocks’ total correction extended to 19.3% as of mid-week, which is perfectly-normal 2.6x downside leverage to gold. Speculators and investors rushing to buy gold stocks in mid-October as GDX made a dazzling secular breakout and challenged a far-bigger one ought to be licking their chops! Being able to now buy in about 20% cheaper with gold miners printing money in this gold environment is awesome.

For 34 quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results from GDX’s 25-largest component stocks. Mostly super-majors, majors, and larger mid-tiers, they dominate this ETF at 85.0% of its total weighting! While digging through quarterlies is a ton of work, understanding the gold miners’ latest fundamentals really cuts through the obscuring sentiment fogs shrouding this sector.

This table summarizes the operational and financial highlights from the GDX top 25 during Q3’24. These gold miners’ stock symbols aren’t all US listings, and are preceded by their rankings changes within GDX over this past year. The shuffling in their ETF weightings reflects shifting market caps, which reveal both outperformers and underperformers since Q3’23. Those symbols are followed by their current GDX weightings.

Next comes these gold miners’ Q3’24 production in ounces, along with their year-over-year changes from the comparable Q3’23. Output is the lifeblood of this industry, with investors generally prizing production growth above everything else. After are the costs of wresting that gold from the bowels of the earth in per-ounce terms, both cash costs and all-in sustaining costs. The latter help illuminate miners’ profitability.

That’s followed by a bunch of hard accounting data reported to securities regulators, quarterly revenues, earnings, operating cash flows, and resulting cash treasuries. Blank data fields mean companies hadn’t disclosed that particular data as of the middle of this week. The annual changes aren’t included if they would be misleading, like comparing negative numbers or data shifting from positive to negative or vice-versa.

In mid-October well before this latest earnings season got underway, I predicted gold miners’ epic quarter in an essay. That concluded “dazzling record gold prices combined with forecast lower mining costs will catapult unit earnings to astounding levels. They are likely to about double to amazing records, extending gold stocks’ massive-earnings-growth streak to five consecutive quarters.” Indeed that mostly came to pass.



Despite their epic quarter, as long-time readers know I’ve never been a fan of most of the world’s largest gold miners that dominate GDX. They perpetually fail to organically grow their production at their vast operational scales, unable to overcome depletion. They’ve mostly been able to boost output only through expensive acquisitions. And paradoxically their mining costs have been rising faster than their smaller peers’.

So for a quarter-century now, our very-profitable subscription-newsletter gold-stock trading has focused on fundamentally-superior smaller mid-tiers and juniors. Operating fewer gold mines often at lower costs, they are better able to consistently grow production through expansions and new mine-builds. Both their earnings growth and stock-price appreciation have long proven way better than GDX’s super-majors and majors...

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 16, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 25701 and is trading up about 24% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At present, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 25415 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 26188.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 25957.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 21 weeks reaching a high during the week of October 28th at 28018. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a significant move of 9.290% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 25415 which still remains 10.29% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to weaken since the previous high at 5074 made 1926 weeks . Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 2 weeks and it finished in a weak position right now warning we need to pay attention.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.

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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 16, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 236.5k, down 18.9k.



The week began by gold slicing through its 50-day on Monday. This was then followed by four more sessions of selling, ending the week down 4.6 percent to $2,570/ounce.

A couple of weeks ago, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. Since then, the metal has dropped back-to-back. On October 30, gold reached a new high of $2,802. On the way to that peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s eight weeks ago, $2,540s-50s nine weeks ago and $2,440s-50s in August.

Gold bugs can take solace in the fact that $2,540s-50s remains intact, with Thursday’s intraday drop to $2,542 attracting buying interest. The daily has gotten oversold, so a rally is possible. Else, bears will be eyeing $2,440s-50s, with the 200-day at $2,409.

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$GDX - Tapped my 3rd Arrowed Target & turned...
By: Sahara | November 15, 2024

• $GDX - Tapped my 3rd Arrowed Target & turned.

Note the conjunction of my target with that Daily 200/MA. Now needs to recover the overhead/MA's otherwise my next Target & Lwr-Parallel is a magnet...



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$GDX - Aiming for that 3rd Arrowed Target...
By: Sahara | November 13, 2024

• $GDX - Aiming for that 3rd Arrowed Target...



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Gold Mining ETF (GDX) Sees Huge Volume Surge
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | November 13, 2024

• Options volume for GDX surpassed 90,000 in the top two contracts

• GDX sports a solid year-to-date lead despite a 10% pullback this quarter

Market volatility stemming from the presidential election, geopolitical conflicts, interest rates, as well as dollar and Treasury yield fluctuations have sent gold prices on a wild ride this year. While the yellow metal was last seen lower amid a surge in the dollar index, it wasn't long ago it was stringing record highs, as traders sought a safe haven from instability.

VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was last seen 1.3% lower to trade at $35.63, but still sports a 15.1% year-to-date lead after hitting an Oct. 22, four-year high of $44.29. Though the exchange-traded fund (ETF) is on track for its fourth-straight loss, it has maintained its popularity with options traders.

At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), GDX's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 5.55 sits higher than 82% of readings from the past 12 months, indicating calls are getting picked up at a faster-than-usual rate.

Just yesterday, volume at the January, 2025 42- and 47-strike calls -- the top two options contracts -- totaled 91,033. Positions were being opened at the March 21, 2025 38 call, which points to long-term optimism. It's also worth noting that after GDX's 10% quarterly drawdown, the ETF now sports a 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 16.1, deep in "oversold" territory and indicating a short-term bounce could be imminent.

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$GDX - 2nd Bear 'Wedge' Target Hit...
By: Sahara | November 11, 2024

• $GDX - 2nd Bear 'Wedge' Target Hit...



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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 9, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 255.3k, down 23.3k.



Last week, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. It was a sign of exhaustion, and the metal gave back two percent this week to $2,695/ounce. From gold bugs’ perspective, the good thing is that Thursday’s low of $2,650 was bought, with the 50-day ($2,662) breached intraday but defended by close.

On the daily, it is possible gold rallies a bit more, but it remains way overbought on the weekly.

Before this week’s decline, the yellow metal rallied relentlessly from June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts – $2,610s seven weeks ago, $2,540s-50s eight weeks ago and $2,440s-50s in August. These are all potential supports now.

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$GDX - Recall I warned of the Bearish 'Cloud Cover' Candle(Circle)
By: Sahara | November 6, 2024

• $GDX - Recall I warned of the Bearish 'Cloud Cover' Candle(Circle)

Which has played out to its Wkly 20/MA & near 38/Fib. See if it can hold & recover the Bear 'Wedge' by the weeks-end. Otherwise I will draw in the wedge targets...



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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 2, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 27492 and is trading up about 32% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Currently, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27291 and overhead resistance forming above at 27520. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 28018 to 27369. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 28018 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 28018. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 27762 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 26366 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 2, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 29, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 278.7k, down 17.6k.



Gold just flashed first signs of exhaustion. This week’s weekly gravestone doji showed up after six up weeks in seven, falling 0.2 percent to $2,749/ounce and posting a new high of $2,802 on Wednesday.

The metal has rallied relentlessly since June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts. Six weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, it broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, gold broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.

Before the first layer of support at $2,610s gets tested, gold bugs’ mettle is likely to be tested just north of $2,700.

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$GDX - Recall I warned of the 'Dark Cloud Cover' Candle end of last week...
By: Sahara | October 31, 2024

• $GDX - Recall I warned of the 'Dark Cloud Cover' Candle end of last week.

Now been Bearishly Confirmed, and has taken the 50% Level of the Big Bullish Candle. If it fails at the first MA's it will aim for the Bear 'Wedge' Targets (Not displayed See Fibs)



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Bull of the Day: Agnico Eagle Mines (AEG)
By: Zacks Investment Research | October 30, 2024

Although it hasn’t received the airtime it deserves, gold prices have been rocketing higher this year. With more new record highs this week, gold has outperformed the S&P 500 by a significant margin year-to-date and since the start of 2023. Not surprisingly, gold miner stocks like Agnico Eagle Mines (AEG) have also performed well this year.

Agnico Eagle Mines has everything a gold investor could ask for, including a rock-solid balance sheet, strong stock price momentum, huge earnings growth forecasts and a reasonable valuation. Furthermore, the stock boasts a top Zacks Rank, significantly increasing the odds of a further near-term rally.


Image Source: TradingView

Powerful Earnings Revision Trend in AEG

As the price of gold rallies, gold mining stocks enjoy immediate expansion in their margins, Agnico Eagle Mines included. Today, AEG has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) rating, reflected by significant revisions higher to its earnings estimates.
Analysts have nearly unanimously upgraded earnings forecasts over the last two months, with FY25 earnings estimates jumping by a hefty 23.4% over the last 60 days. FY24 earnings estimates have also been revised higher by 9.9% and are projected to climb 79.8% YoY to $4.01 per share. Over the next three to five years EPS are expected to grow at an impressive 28.2% annually.

It is also worth noting that the Mining – Gold Industry currently sits in the Top 4% (9 out of 251) of the Zacks Industry Rank, and that the Zacks Earnings ESP is projecting the next earnings period to be analysts estimates by 5.82%.


Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

AEG Stock Technical Setup

Rounding the compelling investment opportunity in Agnico Eagle Mines stock is a technical trading setup. Over the last week or so, the price action has been forming a bull flag from which investors can easily measure a trade.
If the stock can trade above the $88.75 level, it would signal a technical breakout. Alternatively, if the stock loses the $86 level of support, it may be worth waiting for another opportunity.


Image Source: TradingView

Should Investors Buy Agnico Eagle Mines Shares?

Agnico Eagle Mines is currently trading at a one year forward earnings multiple 0f 21.6x, which is below the broad market average and well below its 10-year median of 43x. Additionally, with earnings expected to grow 28.2% annually, AEM has an attractive PEG ratio of 0.77, indicating a discount based on the metric.
For investors seeking exposure to the gold market, Agnico Eagle Mines is a powerful way to express the trade. AEG has a reasonable valuation, top Zacks Rank and even pays a 1.8% dividend.

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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 26, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 22, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 296.2k, up 9.8k.



There is no stopping the yellow metal, rallying this week 0.9 percent to $2,755/ounce, tagging $2,773 on Wednesday. This was the third up week in a row – and sixth in last seven.

Gold has rallied strongly since June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts. Five weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, it broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, gold broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.

If one were to nitpick, the daily RSI has made lower highs even as gold went on to add $100 in the past month.

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 26, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 27546 and is trading up about 32% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At present, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27726 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 25027. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 27087.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27378 and overhead resistance forming above at 27633. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 27726, which was up 20 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27726 to 27221. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27726 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27726. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 27474 which we are still currently trading above for now.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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$GDX - Wkly View of the 'Dark Cloud Cover' Candle...
By: Sahara | October 25, 2024

• $GDX - Wkly View of the 'Dark Cloud Cover' Candle...



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Gold Stocks’ Secular Breakout
By: Adam Hamilton | October 25, 2024

The gold miners’ stocks just achieved a rare secular breakout. This huge technical milestone fueled by record gold levels reflects sector sentiment growing more bullish. That is pushing gold stocks closer to the crucial psychological tipping point where more-mainstream traders increasingly chase their strong gains. Multi-year highs generate broader interest, attracting more capital inflows accelerating gold-stock upside.

The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF has long been gold stocks’ leading sector benchmark and trading vehicle. This was the original pioneering gold-stock ETF, born way back in May 2006. GDX’s first-mover advantage has grown into an insurmountable lead, commanding net assets of $16.8b midweek. That nearly doubles the 13 next-largest gold-stock ETFs’ combined net assets! GDX is this sector’s juggernaut.

It just enjoyed a rather-remarkable nine consecutive trading days of rallying, blasting 13.7% higher in mid-October! That was fueled by a parallel big 5.3% gold surge, which the major gold stocks dominating GDX amplified by a good 2.6x. Historically GDX has usually leveraged material gold moves by 2x to 3x. While certainly an impressive win streak, it was only its last few days that proved important technical milestones.

Gold rapidly surged to extremely-overbought levels in late September, dramatically upping the odds for a rebalancing selloff. I analyzed gold’s high selloff risk in-depth in an early-October essay. That pullback indeed got to work, although it was retarded by soaring geopolitical risks after Iran lobbed hundreds of ballistic missiles into Israel! Still gold retreated a modest 2.4% over a couple weeks into early October.

That dragged GDX a proportional 6.8% lower, for larger 2.9x downside leverage. That selloff started from this sector ETF’s upleg-to-date peak of $41.64, leaving GDX well lower. But gold stocks were quick to claw back their losses, with GDX rallying back to $41.49 last Thursday the 17th. Both levels remained barely decisively above GDX’s last major peak of $40.87 in mid-April 2022, yet still in that resistance zone.

A decisive breakout is exceeding an old closing high by 1%+, which happened on September 24th when GDX closed over $41.28. But technical analysis is subjective, with most support and resistance lines on charts drawn by hand. So from a visual standpoint on a multi-year chart, gold stocks still looked to be near major upper resistance around GDX $41. They could easily still retreat, forming a double topping.

This gold-stock-technicals chart of recent years illuminates that $41 resistance zone. In order for that minor breakout mathematically to become major psychologically, GDX had to blast considerably higher into new chart territory. New highs had to look visually-striking, which finally happened a week ago on Friday the 18th. GDX soared a huge 4.0% higher that day, indisputably achieving a major secular breakout!



It was the best kind too, happening despite no real news. Gold did rally 1.1% to its third record high in a row of $2,721, but there was no Fed-dovish key economic data to drive that. Mounting geopolitical fears heading into a weekend likely played a role, as the world anxiously awaited Israel’s crippling retaliation against Iran for that ballistic-missile barrage. GDX’s big 4.0% up day amplified gold’s by a huge 3.7x.

Precious-metals sentiment lurched sizably to shifting bullish, thanks to gold’s defiant October rally and that big, round, psychologically-important $2,700 level being exceeded. Gold really should have sold off considerably this month. Leading into October, gold was not only extremely-overbought but speculators’ gold-futures longs had hit their 5th-highest levels on record! So massive mean-reversion selling was likely...

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Gold has been putting in the performance of a decade and gold mining stocks are following through
By: SentimenTrader | October 24, 2024

• Gold has been putting in the performance of a decade and gold mining stocks are following through.

Virtually every miner is now trading above its 10-, 50-, and 200-day average. So many uptrends across so many of these stocks have been a good sign for the sector over the following month, but that was pretty much it, at least consistently.



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3 Gold Stocks Surging on Bullish Sector Stance
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | October 22, 2024

• Canaccord Genuity lifted its long-term price outlook for gold and silver

• All 3 stocks marked fresh highs last session

Canaccord Genuity praised commodities today, raising its long-term price outlook for gold and silver and lifting its price objective on several mining names, including Canada-listed stocks Kinross Gold Corp (NYSE:KGC) and Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:GOLD) and U.S.-based Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM). Below, let's take a look at how these stocks are responding.

NEM is leading the bunch, last seen up 1.7% to trade at $58.54, after the firm lifted its price target to $66 from $59. Shares yesterday hit a two-year high of $58.71 after bouncing off a pullback to the 40-day moving average, and are now trading firmly above former resistance at $56. In the last 12 months, NEM added over 52%.

KGC notched a roughly 12-year high of $10.82 last session after rallying off a floor of support at the $9.20 level. The security is up 1.2% to trade at $10.67 at last glance, and now sports an impressive 99% year over year lead, with a 76.3% gain amassed just this year.

GOLD was last seen up 1.5% to trade at $21.17, fresh off its own two-year peak of $21.34 in the last session. The 60-day moving average helped fuel those gains, which contributed to the stock's 27.9% year-over-year lead.

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trunkmonk trunkmonk 2 months ago
BRIC'S by BRICS its happening starting 10.22.2024
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$GDX - Hit the $42.50 Target on Friday. Yet needs to negate that Bear 'Wedge'...
By: Sahara | October 21, 2024

• $GDX - Hit the $42.50 Target on Friday.

Yet needs to negate that Bear 'Wedge'...



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$GDX - The uptrend of out the March low reached the log measured move target of the September 2022-May 2023 uptrend...
By: CyclesFan | October 19, 2024

• $GDX - The uptrend of out the March low reached the log measured move target of the September 2022-May 2023 uptrend. Since the weekly candle is a big green candle it likely hasn't topped yet and will make a higher high next week. The next major resistance is the 2020 high(45.78)



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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 19, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 27300 and is trading up about 31% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Currently, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27378 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 25027. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 27087.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 26947.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 14th at 27378, which was up 19 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27378 to 26544. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27378 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27378. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 26596 which we are still currently trading above for now.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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trunkmonk trunkmonk 2 months ago
3 of the best say gold going to 3k, from my experience with them, they are almost never wrong. yeah sure u got the nameless nobodies posting all over the place pretending to know anything other than the current trend in play, its gonna be HUGE. Praise God.
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 months ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 19, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 15, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 286.4k, up 8.3k.



After three tentative weekly candles – shooting star, spinning top and dragonfly doji – gold yet again shone this week, up a solid two percent to $2,730/ounce, which set a fresh high.

The yellow metal has had a powerful rally since June when it tagged $2,305. In between, it enjoyed one after another breakout.

Four weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, gold broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, it broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.

This week’s breakout followed a defense of $2,610s last week.

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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 months ago
Gold-Stock Tipping Point 2
By: Adam Hamilton | October 18, 2024

The gold miners’ stocks look to be getting even closer to a crucial psychological tipping point. After years of being mired in apathy, this small contrarian sector appears poised to finally return to popularity. When traders flock to gold stocks to chase their upside momentum, massive uplegs ensue where doublings-plus aren’t uncommon. And across entire bull markets, total gold-stock gains can exceed an order of magnitude.

Eleven weeks ago, I penned my original gold-stock-tipping-point essay. My thesis then was gold stocks were on the verge of being noticed by much-broader groups of speculators and investors. They would increasingly pile in to ride mounting sector gains, catapulting gold stocks way higher. Gold miners remain seriously undervalued relative to these record prevailing gold prices, they need to mean revert and normalize.

Much has happened in the several months since, making this case even stronger. The day that essay was published, gold and the leading GDX gold-stock ETF were trading at $2,436 and $36.48. Gold’s last nominal record close of $2,465 was seen several weeks earlier, while GDX’s upleg-to-date best then ran $39.28. It really felt like traders’ interest in gold and its miners’ stocks was growing, a very-bullish omen.

While feelings aren’t empirical, decades of experience hones them into valuable indicators. For a quarter-century now, I’ve been a financial-newsletter guy researching, writing about, and actively trading this gold-stock sector. This is my 1,144th weekly web essay since mid-2000, and I’ve written 291 monthly and 1,118 weekly paid-subscription newsletters in that long span! Active real-world gold-stock trading was a big part.

Both newsletters have recommended and realized 1,531 stock trades as of the end of Q3’24. All those including all losers have averaged excellent +16.0% annualized realized gains! That’s roughly double the long-term stock-market average. After spending the vast majority of my professional life deeply immersed in this realm, my experience and knowledge is world-class. Plenty of signs now point to improving psychology.

Chief among them is gold and GDX continuing to power higher on balance despite formidable challenges. Since that original essay, gold has achieved 14 new nominal record closes including midweek’s latest one at $2,673! That’s another big 9.8% rally despite gold recently facing high odds for a considerable selloff to rebalance sentiment and technicals. Strength contrary to probable weakness reveals shifting psychology.

In early October I wrote an entire essay analyzing gold’s high selloff risk. Two dominant factors fueled that, including gold blasting up to extreme overboughtness. That was driven by massive gold-futures buying by speculators, leaving their positioning way-overextended and their likely capital firepower for buying exhausted. Plenty of catalysts loomed that could spawn cascading gold-futures selling slamming gold.

Specs look to the US dollar’s fortunes to guide their wildly-leveraged and super-risky gold-futures trading. And the US Dollar Index in turn is often bullied around by major US economic-data releases. Depending on how they come in relative to economists’ forecasts, they can really move futures-implied expected Fed rate cuts. Those seemed impossibly-high in early August, at 116 basis points in 2024 then another 100bp in 2025!

That was almost nine quarter-point cuts over 16 months, pretty optimistic. While the FOMC did birth this latest cutting cycle with an outsized 50bp slashing in mid-September, those expected Fed rate cuts have indeed retreated on better-than-expected key economic data. Heavy gold-futures selling has often been spawned in recent years on upside surprises in US jobs, CPI inflation, PPI inflation, and retail sales.

All four latest reads proved Fed-hawkish and boosted the US dollar, which should’ve unleashed big gold-futures dumping! September’s nonfarm payrolls soared 254k, massively beating the +150k expected on top of +72k jobs in past-two-month revisions. All four of the September CPI’s key metrics came in 0.1% hotter than forecasts, and two of the four PPI ones printed 0.2% above consensus. These meant slower rate cuts.

Indeed by Wednesday expected Fed rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 had slumped to 45bp more and 99bp. As of midweek, the USDX had surged 3.2% in several weeks which is a big-and-sharp rally for it. Yet during that time with everything aligning out of favor for gold, it still managed to rally 0.4%! While gold did suffer a minor 2.4% pullback into early October, it rapidly rebounded to that latest record close Wednesday.

September retail sales were released Thursday morning before I started writing this essay, also proving a Fed-hawkish upside surprise. So this past month’s major economic data was certainly dollar-bullish and gold-bearish due to deteriorating expected Fed rate cuts. Yet gold powered higher anyway, likely on big buying from Chinese investors, central banks, and Indian brides’ families. Gold is really defying the odds.

Gold’s defiant march to more record highs is putting it on more traders’ radars. Financial-media coverage is becoming more-frequent and more-bullish, building awareness. Even American stock investors, who have mostly ignored gold’s monster 46.9% upleg over this past year, are increasingly nibbling in GLD and IAU gold-ETF shares. While small, their daily gold-bullion-holdings builds on capital inflows have been relentless.

So gold looks to be nearing its own psychological tipping point, where gains accelerate sparking a fear-of-missing-out rush to pile in. Seasonal tailwinds will soon turn favorable again too. Gold tends to suffer a seasonal pullback from late September to late October, before its biggest seasonal rally powers higher into late February. That has averaged 8.4% over 20 of the last 23 years, which were gold’s bull-market ones.

If gold’s early-October pullback low holds and this year’s winter rally merely proves average, gold would shoot over $2,825 in coming months! And as goes gold, so go its miners’ stocks. They ultimately act like leveraged plays on gold, with the majors dominating GDX usually amplifying their metal’s upside by 2x to 3x. Indeed GDX has rallied with gold recently, achieving another bull-market high of $41.64 in late September.

GDX has powered 60.7% higher over this past year, a good upleg. But it remains quite weak relative to gold, with mere 1.3x amplification. That’s way behind historical precedent. Gold’s last similar monster uplegs both peaked in 2020, averaging 41.4% gains. GDX averaged great 105.4% uplegs during those, doublings-plus at 2.5x leverage! GDX should already be up 95% to 140% in today’s monster gold upleg.

So gold stocks have lots more mean-reversion normalization rallying left to do even at today’s gold levels, let alone where this bull is heading. And GDX just has to inch a little higher to achieve a major technical breakout, which will hasten that crucial psychological tipping point arriving. Forging decisively above $42 ought to fuel increasing and enthusiastic financial-media gold-stock coverage, building greed-driven momentum.



When GDX hit $41.64 in late September, those were gold stocks’ best levels in 4.0 years. As I’m writing this draft midday Thursday, GDX is trading even higher at $41.86. The last time GDX closed over $42 was in mid-September 2020, six weeks after a powerful gold-stock upleg catapulted GDX 134.1% higher to $44.48. Exceed that, and this leading gold-stock benchmark will be at its best levels since January 2013!

Traders love chasing winners, and the financial media love to cover them. Decade-plus gold-stock highs less than 9% above midweek levels should be achieved soon, really boosting popular awareness of gold miners’ upside momentum. That dynamic can quickly become self-feeding, ultimately culminating in a popular speculative mania. It really feels like that process is accelerating, that sentiment tipping point is nearing...

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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 months ago
$GDX - AS long as we hold the Shaded Up/Channel enhanced by 12/20/MA's, within the White-Channel it will aim for the 'Swing' & 'Fib' Targets...
By: Sahara | October 17, 2024

• $GDX - AS long as we hold the Shaded Up/Channel enhanced by 12/20/MA's, within the White-Channel it will aim for the 'Swing' & 'Fib' Targets.

Recall the Red 'Wedge' at the B/Out Line (Peach). Which needs negating...



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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 months ago
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 12, 2024

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 8, 2024.

Gold: Currently net long 278.2k, down 21.8k.



Three weeks ago, in a shooting star week, gold printed $2,709 intraday before heading lower. It has had a powerful rally since June when it tagged $2,305. In between, the yellow metal enjoyed one after another breakout.

Three weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, gold broke out on September 20; this followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, it broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.

This week, after coming under pressure in the first three sessions, bids showed up Thursday at $2,610s, with an intraday low of $2,619, ending the week up 0.3 percent to $2,676/ounce and forming a weekly dragonfly doji. Having defended the first layer of support, gold bugs deserve the benefit of the doubt in the sessions ahead.

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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 months ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 12, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 26763 and is trading up about 29% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Factually, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26724 and overhead resistance forming above at 26894. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 23rd at 27087, which was up 16 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 26678. We are still trading above the Weekly Momentum Indicators so we have not undermined critical support as of yet. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27087 made 2 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 23386 and 27582. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of September 23rd has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 25704 made back during the week of August 19th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of July 15th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 months ago
Gold Bugs Index Testing Long-Term Breakout Level!
By: Chris Kimble | October 10, 2024



The precious metals rally appears to have reached an important juncture.

Yesterday I wrote about Silver and a potential inflection point. Today, we turn to the gold miners and the all-important Gold Bugs Index (HUI).

Above is a “monthly” chart of HUI. Here we can see that the Gold Bugs Index has reached an important confluence of resistance.

The rally has brought the Gold Bugs back to falling trend line resistance, lateral resistance, as well as the underside of the original rally trend line.

In short, this is a BIG area of resistance that will either bring a pause/pullback to the rally, or see a major breakout.

Should the Gold Bugs Index break out here…..VERY BULLISH!!!

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trunkmonk trunkmonk 2 months ago
More rocket fuel. PPI up.
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 months ago
Gold Miners’ Epic Quarter
By: Adam Hamilton | October 11, 2024

The gold miners are on the verge of reporting another best quarter ever. Q3’s earnings season ramping up soon will prove epic, fueled by dazzling record gold prices and slightly-lower mining costs. That ought to double sector unit profits, extending gold stocks’ long trend of massive earnings growth. Such fantastic results should increasingly catch fund investors’ attention, with their inflows driving this sector way higher.

Gold stocks remain out of favor, greatly lagging gold’s monster upleg over this past year. This has proven one of gold’s mightiest advances in many years, soaring 46.8% over 11.7 months! Historically larger gold miners dominating the leading GDX gold-stock ETF have seen their stock prices amplify gold uplegs by 2x to 3x. Yet instead of seeing normal 95%- to-140% upleg gains, GDX has merely rallied 60.7% at best!

That very-poor 1.3x upside leverage to gold has been a real kick in the teeth for contrarian speculators and investors. Gold stocks need to way outperform their metal to compensate for the big additional operational, geological, and geopolitical risks they heap on top of gold price trends. Yet so far that sure hasn’t happened in this upleg, leaving traders increasingly disappointed with this lucrative high-potential sector.

Two major factors contributed to this surprising anomaly. First gold-stock sentiment was crushed in mid-2022 and hasn’t recovered. Then the Fed’s most-violent rate-hike cycle ever catapulted the US Dollar Index up an incredible 16.7% in 6.0 months to an extreme 20.4-year secular peak! That spawned colossal gold-futures selling, slamming gold 20.9% lower in 6.6 months. GDX cratered a brutal 46.5% during that!

Second while gold blasted up 26.4% year-to-date, traders have been overwhelmingly distracted by the AI stock bubble. While gold achieved 35 nominal-record closing highs so far this year, the S&P 500 bested that with a whopping 44 of its own! Gold and gold stocks are alternative investments, thriving the most when general stock markets grind lower. Instead they’ve been surging, spinning off vast greed and euphoria.

But sooner or later all that will pass, and gold stocks will be bid way higher to reflect these lofty prevailing gold prices. The gold miners’ phenomenal fundamentals overwhelmingly support this bullish thesis. For 33 quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest results reported by GDX’s 25-biggest component stocks. Right after each quarterly earnings season, I write essays explaining how they are performing.

Across individual gold miners, there are always plenty of distorted bottom-line earnings. These include big noncash gains and losses arising from unusual items ranging from acquisitions to impairment charges. But that noise can be distilled out with an excellent proxy for sector unit profits. It simply averages the GDX top 25’s all-in sustaining costs in any quarter, then subtracts them from its average gold price.

These implied per-ounce profits have been skyrocketing, leaving gold stocks deeply undervalued relative to their metal. A year ago in Q3’23, the GDX top 25 reported $622 in unit earnings which soared 94% YoY. Then in Q4’23, those grew again to $659 per ounce which shot up another 42% YoY. That trend persisted in Q1’24, with these major gold miners averaging earning $795 per ounce which powered up 35% YoY.

Then all that accelerated dramatically in the spectacular Q2’24, which I analyzed in depth in a mid-August essay. That quarter’s record average gold price of $2,337 combined with GDX-top-25 AISCs plunging 10.2% YoY to $1,239 catapulted unit earnings to a dazzling record $1,099! That blasted up another 84% YoY. So miners’ last four reported quarters have seen per-ounce profits soar 94%, 42%, 35%, and 84% YoY!

Such explosive profits growth has naturally slammed gold miners’ price-to-earnings ratios dramatically lower, into the teens and even single digits in some cases. With fantastically-bullish fundamentals like this, you’d think traders would be rushing into this high-potential sector. But gold stocks remain mired in apathy, lost in the shadow of this crazy AI stock bubble stealing all the limelight. Yet its days are numbered.

Eventually stock prices always mean revert to some reasonable multiple of underlying corporate earnings. Market-darling AI stocks can’t trade with 60x+ P/Es indefinitely, and good gold stocks can’t remain at sub-15x multiples. Sooner or later some catalyst will spark overdue capital flows to start normalizing all this. It could be the AI stock bubble finally bursting and decisively rolling over, it could prove gold surging even higher.

But maybe the gold miners will stack enough sensational earnings seasons to convince fund managers to return. Their relatively-big buying in this relatively-small sector will drive stock prices way higher, which will eventually fuel greed, euphoria, and maybe even a popular speculative mania. Gold stocks are about to report absolutely-epic Q3 results, their best ever achieved by far! That could prove this sector’s tipping point.

Q3’24’s average gold price soared an amazing 28.6% YoY to a new all-time record $2,477! This is utterly stunning considering just a year ago that highwater mark had been $1,978. Gold’s phenomenal prices last quarter were fueled by major buying from gold-futures speculators, central banks around the world, Chinese investors, and a huge surge in Indian gold imports. I could write entire essays discussing each.

But today realize Q3’s record gold levels have been set in stone, they can’t be revised lower like Biden Administration jobs reports. So the only variable driving sector unit profitability is the GDX top 25’s average all-in sustaining costs. Over the past four quarters they have been trending lower on balance, clocking in at $1,304, $1,317, $1,277, and $1,239 per ounce. That averages $1,284, a conservative baseline.

The majority of these elite major gold miners provide and update AISC guidance throughout the year. And many of them are forecasting higher production and thus lower mining costs in H2’24 compared to H1. Gold mining has massive fixed costs, which growing output spreads across more ounces reducing unit costs. A surprising number of major gold miners continued guiding to considerably-lower costs in Q3 and Q4.

The world’s largest gold miner and GDX’s biggest component by far with a huge 14.6% weighting is a great example. In Q1 and Q2, Newmont reported AISCs of $1,439 and $1,562 per ounce. That averaged a little over $1,500 in H1. Yet in late July NEM reaffirmed its full-year-2024 AISC guidance at just $1,400 per ounce. Unlike most of its peers, Newmont didn’t even give a range. And its 2024 output was H2-weighted.

Back in late February this super-major forecast 47% of this year’s production would come in H1, then 53% in H2. That alone is going to force AISCs lower. To hit that $1,400 AISC target for all of 2024, Q3’s and Q4’s would have to average just $1,300! That is sharply lower from Q1’s and Q2’s, and would make for a big improvement. We are talking about H2 AISCs plunging 13%+ from H1 levels, which would be amazing.

While I really doubt NEM will achieve such low Q3 and Q4 AISCs, they will definitely materially improve. And there are plenty of other GDX-top-25 majors with similar much-better-mining-cost forecasts for H2 compared to H1. Collectively these elite gold miners averaged $1,258 AISCs in H1’24. It seems pretty conservative to imagine them improving 2%ish in this soon-to-be-reported Q3, which would be near $1,230.

We won’t know what the actual average is until Q3 earnings season ends in mid-November, after which I’ll write another essay fully analyzing those collective results. But if GDX-top-25 AISCs come in around $1,230, subtracted from Q3’s phenomenal $2,477 average gold price that yields implied sector profits of $1,247 per ounce! That would crush Q2’24’s previous record of $1,099, and skyrocket over 100% YoY!

You’d sure think a doubling in gold miners’ already-massive profits would impress some fund managers, motivating them to add gold-stock positions. But even if GDX-top-25 Q3 AISCs come in way higher for some reason, profitability is still going to soar. Even if those average AISCs prove much worse up near $1,350, Q3’s unit earnings would still soar 81% YoY to a new record $1,127. Those profits will prove epic.

Crazily due to this AI stock bubble and funds dangerously concentrated in a handful of wildly-overcrowded AI plays, American stock investors’ overall allocations to gold are effectively zero. Entering October, the S&P 500 stocks collectively commanded a staggering $51,247b market capitalization. Yet the combined holdings of the world-dominant American GLD and IAU gold ETFs were merely worth $106b that same day.

That implies a trivial 0.2% gold allocation, despite gold’s record-shattering year! That should be 5% to 10%, since gold has always been an essential portfolio diversifier. Even if it grows to 1%, gold is heading way higher. And fund managers’ allocations to gold miners’ stocks are similarly-tiny. At some point gold miners’ earnings will grow so fat and rich that their stocks can no longer be ignored, and capital inflows will soar.

While the major gold stocks’ imminent Q3 results are going to be jaw-droppingly awesome, this sector does face a near-term speedbump. Gold stocks leverage gold, and it faces high selloff risks during coming weeks. My essay last week analyzed this in depth. Gold simply blasted too far too fast to extremely-overbought levels driven by heavy gold-futures buying, leaving speculators’ positioning extreme.

But despite gold growing really overextended, gold stocks are not since they have lagged their metal so much this year. This chart divides GDX by its own 200-day moving average, creating an overbought-and-oversold indicator I call the Relative GDX. This renders gold-stock moves in constant-percentage terms around a 200dma flattened to horizontal at 1.00x. Over time this rGDX indicator tends to form trading ranges.

The current one based on the last five years of data runs from extremely-oversold levels under 0.75x GDX’s 200dma to extremely-overbought ones over 1.30x. Unlike its metal, GDX still hasn’t yet reached the latter warning levels in this year-long upleg! At the major gold stocks’ latest interim high achieved in late September, the rGDX was merely running 1.249x! Gold stocks don’t need to fully amplify gold’s selloff.



Of course they will to some extent, as they are leveraged plays on the metal they mine. At worst since its latest interim high, gold has pulled back 2.4% as of midweek. GDX did fall 6.8% in that span, making for 2.9x downside leverage on the higher side of that usual 2x-to-3x range. But that ought to moderate since gold stocks remain really undervalued after seriously lagging gold’s powerful advance, as precedent shows.

Gold’s last healthy mid-upleg pullback ran from late May to early June, when it dropped 5.7% rebalancing sentiment. During that span gold bled off excessive greed, GDX only retreated 10.0% making for mere 1.8x downside leverage! Any coming gold-stock downside on another gold pullback should prove relatively-muted as well. The gold stocks never challenged extreme overboughtness, and popular greed never flared.

If gold pulling back forces a gold-stock selloff ahead of or into Q3 earnings, that should prove an excellent buying opportunity. Mid-upleg pullbacks offer the best buy-relatively-low opportunities within ongoing bull-market uplegs. We ratcheted up trailing stop losses on our newsletter gold-stock trades preparing for a retreat, and I’m researching fundamentally-superior mid-tiers and juniors to buy into as it runs its course...

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trunkmonk trunkmonk 2 months ago
Miners still following the ping pong pattern of gold, when a breakout is confirmed, you wont see the connection at the hip for months.
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 months ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 5, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 26678 and is trading up about 28% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Factually, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26653 and overhead resistance forming above at 26947. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 23rd at 27087, which was up 16 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 16 weeks reaching a high during the week of September 23rd at 26386. Since that high, we have been generally trading down to sideways for the past week, which has been a reasonable move of 2.307% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 26462 which still remains 14.84% above the former low.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27087 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 23206 and 27368. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of September 23rd has exceeded the previous high of 25704 made back during the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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trunkmonk trunkmonk 2 months ago
In other words, in fact, they are 10x behind. https://kingworldnews.com/john-hathaway-the-stage-is-set-for-a-big-move-in-gold-and-gold-miners/
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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 months ago
$GDX - Be aware of the 'H&S' Up at the Uppr-End of that Bear 'Wedge'...
By: Sahara | October 3, 2024

• $SPX seemingly range bound between 0.75 and 1.0 std dev. Waiting to see signs of direction.



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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 months ago
$GDX #Miners - Interesting week with last weeks Ominous 'Gravestone' (Or 'Inv Hammer') Candle at the Uppr-BB, Uppr-Parallel & Blue-Buffer...
By: Sahara | September 30, 2024

• $GDX #Miners - Interesting week with last weeks Ominous 'Gravestone' (Or 'Inv Hammer') Candle at the Uppr-BB, Uppr-Parallel & Blue-Buffer...



Read Full Story »»»

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DiscoverGold DiscoverGold 2 months ago
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 28, 2024

NY Gold Futures closed today at 26681 and is trading up about 28% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Currently, this market has been rising for 10 months going into September suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27087 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 24038. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 25704.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26510 and overhead resistance forming above at 26894. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 23rd at 27087, which was up 16 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27087 to 26386. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27087 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27087. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 26839 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 25445 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 21 months since the low established back in November 2022.

Critical support still underlies this market at 22840 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

DiscoverGold
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trunkmonk trunkmonk 2 months ago
Normally what would be gold investor inflow went to BTC during and after several Halvings, many are stuck either financially or mentally. they know nothing else. The rest of the world, maybe hundreds of million out of the 6 plus Billion not in the west, since its now wealthier then ever before per person excluding the rich and infamous. The world gets it, the west is toast, more accurately post toastie, as in hits the goal post and never the net anymore. the west is fried, beyond all reasoning, stuck in markets and crypto, while the rest of the world will be a part of the transition to real money because fiat is absolutely BK. The dollar is doomed and the US along with central banks around the world, have already begun to transition back to real money. It will be the Great world wide recession or depression, into a new monetary systems based on real money, gold and silver. everything else that makes it will have to have the capability to transfer into real money or it will fade away. US wants civil war or WWIII because they cannot navigate out of the mess they created. like a VP who was dictator over the border, failed over 10 million time, then 40 days before election decides to pretend to secure the border. ITs too late, game over in every way. All crypto that becomes a derivative of gold has a chance, the rest will swell up with moron retail investors then implode with absolute impunity.
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