New light vehicle sales in July are expected to sustain
recent momentum.
SOUTHFIELD, Mich., July 24,
2023 /PRNewswire/ -- S&P Global Mobility
projects new US light vehicle sales volume in July 2023 to reach 1.33 million units, up 18%
year over year. Expected July results represent a full calendar
year worth of consecutive monthly sales growth (as measured in
year-over-year unadjusted monthly volume comparisons), reflecting
the recovery from the depths of the supply chain constraints
realized through much of 2022. This volume would translate to an
estimated sales pace of 16.1 million units (seasonally adjusted
annual rate: SAAR).
New US light vehicle sales in July 2023 to reach 1.33 million units, up 18%
YOY, according to S&P Global Mobility
"New light vehicle sales will continue to progress in July,
reflecting the current trend of sustained demand levels to the
fleet sector while retail sales continue to climb," said
Chris Hopson, principal analyst at
S&P Global Mobility. "From both an economic growth and auto
demand perspective, the first half of 2023 has proven once again
that one shouldn't doubt the spending capacity of US
consumers."
Commensurate with the better-than-expected economic and auto
sales data over the past six months, S&P Global Mobility has
upgraded its calendar year 2023 US light vehicle sales forecast to
15.4 million units (up from 15.1 million in its previous forecast
release).
The near-term outlook remains unclear as the new vehicle
sales environment will be defined in the second half of the year by
the dueling possibilities that auto consumers will be pressured by
potential vehicle affordability issues (rising interest rates,
credit tightening, still high vehicle prices) while at the same
time, production advances could build back inventory more quickly
than anticipated, setting up a scenario to alleviate some of the
pricing pressures within the new vehicle market.
Although the July 4 weekend
represented a trifecta of the end of the month, end of the quarter,
and a holiday weekend, the sales pattern for the weekend was
consistent to preceding months-end in terms of sold inventory.
"The long weekend took a chunk out of available advertised
inventories – from 1.843 million in mid-June to 1.761 million on
July 3," said Matt Trommer, associate director of Market
Reporting at S&P Global Mobility. "Perhaps more notable is that
available inventories in mid-July almost immediately rebounded to
1.867 million, surpassing the year-to-date highs seen in
mid-June."
Various industry-specific risk factors remain prevalent in the
outlook for the remainder of the 2023, including the potential for
North American vehicle supply disruptions as union negotiations
take shape.
"With some US manufacturers maintaining higher levels of
inventory in relation to demand, North American production levels
are expected to slow later this year, with the reduced volume
effectively acting as risk mitigation for the high probability of a
union strike," said Joe Langley,
associate director, light vehicle production forecasting at S&P
Global Mobility.
|
|
|
|
|
US Light Vehicle
Sales
|
|
|
July 23
(Est)
|
June
23
|
July
22
|
Total Light
Vehicle
|
Units, NSA
|
1,330,000
|
1,370,976
|
1,126,523
|
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
16.1
|
15.7
|
13.3
|
Light Truck
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
12.9
|
12.6
|
10.6
|
Passenger
Car
|
In millions,
SAAR
|
3.2
|
3.1
|
2.7
|
Source: S&P Global
Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
|
BEV share holding steady
Battery electric vehicle (BEV) share is expected
to represent 7.6% of July sales, remaining on trend with
the preceding months. Continued development of BEV sales remains a
constant assumption for 2023 although some month-to-month
volatility is expected as BEV pricing changes remain dynamic
especially as aggressive BEV production expectations and new
product introductions gain momentum in the second half of the
year.
About S&P Global Mobility
At S&P Global Mobility, we provide invaluable insights
derived from unmatched automotive data, enabling our customers to
anticipate change and make decisions with conviction. Our expertise
helps them to optimize their businesses, reach the right consumers,
and shape the future of mobility. We open the door to automotive
innovation, revealing the buying patterns of today and helping
customers plan for the emerging technologies of tomorrow.
S&P Global Mobility is a division of S&P Global (NYSE:
SPGI). S&P Global is the world's foremost provider of credit
ratings, benchmarks, analytics and workflow solutions in the global
capital, commodity, and automotive markets. With every one of our
offerings, we help many of the world's leading organizations
navigate the economic landscape so they can plan for tomorrow,
today. For more information, visit www.spglobal.com/mobility.
Media Contact:
Michelle Culver
S&P Global Mobility
248.728.7496 or 248.342.6211
Michelle.culver@spglobal.com
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SOURCE S&P Global Mobility