NEW YORK, Oct. 9, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- The
Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence Index,
conducted in collaboration with Nielsen, was unchanged in the third
quarter of 2019 and remains at a high of 107 (a reading of 100 or
above is considered positive). The index has been relatively flat
in recent quarters, but hovering at historically high levels for
about a year. While consumers are likely to sustain spending, going
forward, rising concerns related to trade disputes and geopolitical
uncertainties may create a more volatile scenario in which
consumers will grow increasingly cautious regarding their
spending.
"Despite the lack of momentum in overall consumer confidence,
the results suggest a continued positive outlook for consumer
spending over the next half year," says Bart van Ark, Chief
Economist of The Conference Board. "Confident consumers will
continue to bolster the economy, providing a defense against
slowing global GDP growth. However, the increase in the number of
markets experiencing declining confidence and somewhat increased
concerns about job prospects bears watching. A continuation of
negative news about a possible escalation of geopolitical
uncertainties could further increase anxieties about job security
and erode confidence in the economy."
Despite some softening in large markets – including China, the US, India and Indonesia – consumers across those major
markets remain confident. Improvements occurred in Vietnam, Brazil, Canada, Germany, Japan and the United
Kingdom. Greece experienced
an exceptionally large increase (12 points), while Hong Kong and Peru had the largest declines (14 points
each).
Overall, a declining number of markets are seeing further
improvements in confidence. Out of 64 markets surveyed, 33 (15
emerging and 18 mature markets) saw a decline in consumer
confidence in Q3. This is an increase from the prior quarter, when
only 29 markets saw a decline (13 emerging and 16 mature
markets).
Euro Area Confidence Remains Stable
In the Euro Area, overall consumer confidence remained
unchanged. While job prospects slightly weakened, more consumers
think this is a good time to spend. Despite further declines in
manufacturing activity and political uncertainties around Brexit,
both Germany and the UK saw a
modest improvement from the previous quarter. Greece experienced a large improvement of 12
points. However, the Euro Area average was held back by large
declines in the Netherlands,
Ireland and Spain. Beyond the Euro Area, confidence in the
broader European region also showed robust gains in Ukraine and Russia.
Consumers in Asia-Pacific remain among the most
confident globally, but differences across countries have
increased. Consumers in the largest emerging markets (China, India
and Indonesia) are very positive,
despite experiencing some softening in confidence. Other markets,
including South Korea,
Thailand and Singapore, experienced declines in confidence
levels. Hong Kong saw the largest
decline across all regions, the result of political unrest in this
market.
In North America,
optimism about jobs declined modestly, but consumers are unlikely
to curb spending. Canadian consumers have shown improvement in
confidence, following a drop in the previous quarter. However, with
moderate growth prospects and Canada's high exposure to political and trade
risks, consumers are likely to remain vigilant about spending in
the coming months.
Job Security, Economic Concerns Bear Close Watching; Global
Warming Concerns on the Rise
When asked specifically about their first and second biggest
concerns, global consumers cited the economy and job security.
Going forward, this growing economic anxiety could impact
consumers' perceptions of whether it's a good time to spend.
At the same time, however, fewer consumers in North America, the Euro Area and the mature
economies of Asia-Pacific have
changed their spending or saving habits. Also, an increasing share
of consumers in these regions are putting extra cash into
stocks/mutual funds, which suggests some confidence that economic
and financial conditions will not worsen dramatically.
In North America, Asia-Pacific and several European economies,
there seems to be a gradually waning interest in spending
disposable income on new clothing. Spending on new technology,
however, recovered from its slight recent softness, particularly in
Asia-Pacific and North America.
In addition to economic concerns, global warming has been a
rising concern across the world over the past several quarters. The
levels and increases are particularly notable in North America and the Euro Area.
Other Regional Highlights for the Third Quarter of
2019
While confidence increased slightly in Latin America, divergences among countries
in the region have also increased. With improved sentiments
regarding job prospects and spending, Brazil, Mexico and Argentina experienced the largest increases in
consumer confidence in the region, although confidence in
Argentina remains very low. In
contrast, Peru and Chile saw the second and third largest
declines in consumer confidence globally. Peru is experiencing political instability. In
Chile, there are heightened
concerns about rising unemployment, weakening consumer demand, and
trade disruption in key commodities.
Confidence in Saudi Arabia and
the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
declined. Despite continued optimism about job prospects, consumers
across all six markets surveyed in Africa & the Middle East cited job security as their
top concern, which may spur more cautious spending decisions.
Index is Recent Addition to The Conference Board's
Economic Indicators Program
The Global Consumer Confidence Index is a recent addition to The
Conference Board's portfolio of economic indicators, which includes
the Consumer Confidence Index® for the US, The Conference Board
Measure of CEO Confidence™, the Employment Trends Index™, The
Conference Board Help Wanted OnLine® Index, and Leading
Economic Indexes for 12 countries, the Euro Area and globally.
The Global Consumer Confidence Index, based on online responses
from 32,000 consumers in 64 markets throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin
America, the Middle East
and Africa, and North America, was acquired from Nielsen,
which first began the survey in 2005. Nielsen, a leading global
provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and
watch, continues to collaborate with The Conference Board on
conducting the global survey.
The series for the world, the 64 markets covered and regional
aggregates as well as information on several components of the
index, including job prospects, personal finances and spending
intentions, are released on a timely basis in summary format to the
public during the first two weeks of each quarter. Detailed data
series are made available on a complimentary basis to members of
The Conference Board.
Source: October 2019 Global
Consumer Confidence Survey
The Conference
Board
About The Conference Board® Global Consumer Confidence
Survey
The Conference Board publishes the quarterly Global
Consumer Confidence Index at 8:00 AM
ET. The Global Consumer Confidence Index Highlights, full
report and technical notes to this series are available on The
Conference Board website.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is
the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for
what's ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan,
not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the
United States.
www.conference-board.org.
About Nielsen
Nielsen Holdings plc (NYSE: NLSN) is a
global performance management company that provides a comprehensive
understanding of what consumers watch and buy. Nielsen's Watch
segment provides media and advertising clients with Total Audience
measurement services for all devices on which content — video,
audio and text — is consumed. The Buy segment offers consumer
packaged goods manufacturers and retailers the industry's only
global view of retail performance measurement. By integrating
information from its Watch and Buy segments and other data sources,
Nielsen also provides its clients with analytics that help improve
performance. Nielsen, an S&P 500 company, has operations in
over 100 countries, covering more than 90 percent of the world's
population. For more information, visit
www.nielsen.com.
View original content to download
multimedia:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-consumer-confidence-unchanged-in-q3-index-remains-at-historic-high-despite-rising-anxieties-global-consumers-remain-steadfast-300934634.html
SOURCE The Conference Board