Election Results Further Validate Efficacy of Harris Interactive’s Online Methodology
November 06 2008 - 11:00AM
Business Wire
The Harris Poll� (NASDAQ:HPOL) issued its final presidential
popular vote predictions late on election eve: Senator Obama 52% -
Senator McCain 44%. Although the final voting results are not in,
the most current data available indicate that Obama won by 53% to
McCain�s 46%, showing our predictions to be fairly close. �The 2008
presidential election provided us with a unique opportunity to
further prove the effectiveness of our online survey methods,� said
Kimberly Till, CEO of Harris Interactive. �Election predictions are
highly public tests of the efficacy of any methodology, and Harris
Interactive proved once again that our online research methods are
fast, are very accurate, and are equal to, if not better than the
best in the industry.� Although the results aren�t final, we
believe that our other predictions also were accurate, including:
�It will be the first time that the winning candidate has won more
than half the votes since � 1988.� (53%) �Obama�s margin of victory
is likely to result in Obama winning between 350 and 380 Electoral
College votes�. (current estimate is 364 electoral votes) Also, the
many demographic vote predictions in The Harris Poll, were almost
all very close to the exit poll numbers published by CNN:
Demographic � Obama � McCain � Harris Poll � CNN Exit Polls Harris
Poll � CNN Exit Polls Male 50% 49% 45% 48% Female 53% 56% 43% 43%
2004 Bush voter 15% 18% 82% 81% 2004 Kerry Voter 87% 89% 10% 9%
Republicans 11% 9% 88% 89% Democrats 87% 89% 11% 10% Independents
51% 52% 42% 44% East 59% 59% 39% 40% Midwest 50% 54% 45% 44% South
47% 46% 49% 53% West 53% 55% 40% 42% These results provide further
evidence of the accuracy and reliability of the methods used by
Harris Interactive to conduct marketing and opinion research
online, consistent with our good track record in predicting more
than 70 elections over the last eight years. �There is much
uncertainty about the future of telephone polls because of their
very low, and still declining, response rates, the large and
increasing number of people with no landlines and the difficulties
and costs involved with adding samples of the �cell-phone only�
population,� said Humphrey Taylor, Chairman of The Harris Poll.
�This election further confirms that well managed, panel-based
online polls are a reliable and accurate way of measuring public
opinion and predicting elections. They will be more widely used in
the future.� Table taken from Real Clear Politics, November 5, 2008
General Election McCain vs. Obama Poll � FieldDate(s) �
SampleSize/Mode � Marginof Error � Obama � McCain � Difference
Actual Voting Results(as of 11/5/08) 11/4 119.8 million - 53% 46%
Obama +7 The Harris Poll 10/29 � 11/03 5,210/ online** * 52% 44%
Obama +8 RCP Average 10/29 - 11/03 -- � 52.1 44.5 Obama +7.6 Marist
11/03 - 11/03 804/Tel 4.0 52 43 Obama +9 Battleground (Lake)* 11/02
- 11/03 800/Tel 3.5 52 47 Obama +5 Battleground (Tarrance)* 11/02 -
11/03 800/Tel 3.5 50 48 Obama +2 Rasmussen Reports 11/01 - 11/03
3000/Tel 2.0 52 46 Obama +6 Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 11/01 - 11/03
1,201/Tel 2.9 54 43 Obama +11 IBD/TIPP 11/01 - 11/03 981/Tel 3.2 52
44 Obama +8 FOX News 11/01 - 11/02 971/Tel 3.0 50 43 Obama +7 NBC
News/Wall St. Jrnl 11/01 - 11/02 1011/Tel 3.1 51 43 Obama +8 Gallup
10/31 - 11/02 2,472/Tel 2.0 55 44 Obama +11 Diageo/Hotline 10/31 -
11/02 887/Tel 3.3 50 45 Obama +5 CBS News 10/31 - 11/02 714/Tel --
51 42 Obama +9 ABC News/Wash Post 10/30 - 11/02 2,470/Tel 2.5 53 44
Obama +9 Ipsos/McClatchy 10/30 - 11/02 760/Tel 3.6 53 46 Obama +7
CNN/Opinion Research 10/30 - 11/01 714/Tel 3.5 53 46 Obama +7 Pew
Research 10/29 - 11/01 2,587/Tel 2.0 52 46 Obama +6 ** 3,946 likely
voters * All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use
probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error
which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate,
including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with
nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response
options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore,
Harris Interactive avoids the words �margin of error� as they are
misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible
sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted,
random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical
because no published polls come close to this ideal. Methodology
This Harris Poll� was conducted online within the United States
between October 30 and November 3, 2008 among 5,210 adults (aged 18
and over), of whom 3,946 were likely voters. Figures for age, sex,
race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were
weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual
proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also
used to adjust for respondents� propensity to be online. About
Harris Interactive Harris Interactive is a global leader in custom
market research. With a long and rich history in multimodal
research, powered by our science and technology, we assist clients
in achieving business results. Harris Interactive serves clients
globally through our North American, European and Asian offices and
a network of independent market research firms. For more
information, please visit http://www.harrisinteractive.com/.
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