EARNINGS PREVIEW:US Software Cos May See Tech Spending Slowdown

TAKING THE PULSE: Last month's disappointing quarterly results from Oracle Corp. (ORCL), one of the technology industry's bellwethers, have raised investor concerns that economic uncertainty could be hurting enterprise spending on technology. Oracle, the business-software giant, said delayed customer purchases caused sales in its core software business to grow less than expected in the second quarter and revenue in its newer hardware division to decline more than it had feared. While the global macroeconomic environment remains fragile, Oppenheimer in a recent note said mobility, virtualization and cloud computing software continue to drive growth.

Smaller player Progress Software Corp. (PRGS) earlier this month reported its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings fell 45% on a decline in software-licenses revenue, while Tibco Software Inc. (TIBX) saw its earnings rise 38% on sales gains in both of its main businesses.

 
    COMPANIES TO WATCH: 
 
    International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) - reports Jan. 19

Wall Street Expectations: Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect a profit of $4.62 a share on revenue of $29.74 billion, ahead of year-earlier earnings of $4.18 a share and revenue of $29.02 billion.

Key Issues: Big Blue has benefited from a push toward higher-margin businesses, such as data-analysis services, and away from crowded fields where companies compete mostly on price. While that bet has been paying off, worries have emerged that the weak global economy is having a negative impact on technology spending, particularly by governments. IBM in October reported a disappointing number of third-quarter signed service contracts, an indication of future business, and a sequential decline in the company's backlog, which measures the current value of work under contract. BMO recently cut its fourth-quarter and calendar-year 2012 estimates for IBM, noting the company's software and systems businesses likely had a tough quarter, and said it expects acquisition-led software growth to slow.

 
    Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - reports Jan. 19

Wall Street Expectations: The industry giant is expected to report a fiscal second-quarter profit of 76 cents a share on revenue of $20.95 billion. A year ago, the company posted earnings of 77 cents a share on revenue of $19.95 billion.

Key Issues: Microsoft executives, in comments made at the Consumer Electronics Show earlier this week, warned that PC shipments last quarter may be worse than analysts expect due to supply disruptions from Thailand's flooding. Microsoft's Office suite has continued to see strength with corporate customers in recent quarters, but analysts will be watching for slowing sales of its Windows 7 operating system in advance of the introduction of its tablet-ready Windows 8 later this year. Chief Executive Steve Ballmer noted in a CES keynote address that the company was partnering with a broad range of PC and phone makers as Microsoft looks to gain ground in the expanding consumer and mobile markets, where it competes with Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Google Inc. (GOOG).

 
    VMware Inc. (VMW) - reports Jan. 23

Wall Street Expectations: Analysts forecast earnings of 60 cents a share, while the company expects revenue between $1.03 billion and $1.06 billion. A year earlier, VMware posted adjusted earnings of 46 cents, which excluded stock compensation and other items, on revenue of $835.7 million.

Key Issues: VMware dominates the market for virtualization software, which allows users to run multiple computers' operations on a single machine, the first step in cloud computing that connects all kinds of computing devices. Customers that had turned to the company for software to virtualize their information systems are now considering buying VMware management tools as well, Chief Executive Paul Maritz said in October. In a recent note, FBR said the virtualization space continues to see healthy demand that disproportionately benefits VMware as more enterprise customers move toward the cloud. FBR also noted the company's fifth update to its core vSphere virtualization software is gaining traction.

 
    Citrix Systems Inc. (CTXS) - reporting date to be announced

Wall Street Expectations: Analysts forecast earnings of 76 cents a share on revenue of $619 million, in line with the company's expectations of earnings of 75 cents to 76 cents on revenue of $610 million to $620 million. Last year, Citrix posted earnings of 65 cents - excluding stock-based compensation and other impacts - and revenue of $529.7 million.

Key Issues: Citrix, which improves efficiency by allowing multiple systems to operate on one computer, saw its third-quarter earnings rise 5% on across-the-board revenue growth, led by product licenses and its online and technical services. Its desktop-solutions business has seen its growth accelerate the last few quarters due to the increasing importance of desktop virtualization. Morgan Stanley in a recent note said the company appears to show solid demand trends in its latest quarter, with continued traction for XenDesktop and NetScaler services, larger deals and steady performance in its online segment.

(The Thomson Reuters estimates and year-earlier figures may not be comparable due to one-time items and other adjustments.)

-By Nathalie Tadena, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-3287; nathalie.tadena@dowjones.com

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