ADP Modestly Misses Estimates - Ahead of Wall Street
August 31 2011 - 4:44AM
Zacks
This is Mark Vickery covering for Sheraz Mian, who is off
today.
ADP's (ADP) numbers missed
slightly this morning. The biggest private-sector check-cutter
reported a gain of 91,000 jobs in August, down from an expected
level of 100,000 jobs gained. The ADP is the premiere jobs report
prior to this Friday's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) non-farm
payroll report, and this moderate miss may ding expectations for
Friday's numbers.
Also, July's numbers were revised down from 114,000 new jobs
originally reported to 109,000. So both headline numbers represent
a disappointment, although with how expectations have often been
crushed in recent months, the market may breathe a sigh of relief
that the numbers weren't worse. In fact, stock futures were up
immediately after the ADP report was announced.
The estimate for Friday's BLS report are now for a gain of 80,000
jobs in August. The main difference between the ADP and BLS reports
is that the ADP does not count government jobs but the BLS
does.
By size of firm, small businesses -- the biggest and most important
private employers in the country -- gained 58,000 jobs during the
month. Medium-sized businesses gained 30,000, and large businesses
were up 3,000. Goods producing jobs were up 11,000, services were
up 80,000 but manufacturing was down 4,000 jobs.
Any way you slice it, this marks further tepid jobs growth in the
U.S. Not always do the ADP and BLS numbers correlate, but they
usually exist within a range, particularly after revisions in later
months modify the results. An additional 91,000 jobs will not do
much to stave off fears of another recession, but they do at least
provide grist for the mill that we are growing, albeit at an anemic
pace.
Elsewhere, the Challenger Report, from firm Challenger, Gray &
Christmas, reports job cuts falling (from 16-month highs) to
51,000-plus. CEO John Challenger said on CNBC's "Squawk Box" this
morning that he sees the majority of job cuts remaining on the
Government side, but switching from State & Local jobs to the
Federal level. "Usually government is growing wildly after a
recession, with new tax revenues. That's just not happening this
time," Challenger said.
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