SEATTLE, Oct. 8, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- (NASDAQ: RDFN)
— More people moved from blue (Democratic) to red (Republican)
counties than from red to blue counties in the spring, according to
a new report from Redfin (www.redfin.com), the
technology-powered real estate brokerage. Specifically, 6.5% more
people looked to move to red and swing counties than to blue
counties in the second quarter. Meanwhile, 3.2% more people looked
to move to swing counties than blue or red counties, and 1.2% more
people looked to move to red counties than blue or swing counties.
This analysis reflects Redfin.com home searches from users who
looked to relocate to a different county.
The trend is more pronounced in a collection of 13 swing states,
where 9.3% more people looked to move to red and swing counties
than blue counties, and 1.8% more people looked to move to red
counties than blue or swing counties. In swing states, 3.6% more
people looked to move to swing counties than red or blue
counties.
"Swing counties in swing states were the most popular
destinations for Redfin.com users looking to move across county
lines this spring," said Redfin economist Taylor Marr. "Even in non-coastal states that
tend to be less expensive, relatively affordable swing counties
that have a healthy mix of single-family homes, condos and
townhouses are more attractive than ever. The bluest, most
expensive counties are failing to attract a lot of the families who
are looking to relocate right now."
The time period Redfin examined encompasses the beginning of the
coronavirus pandemic and the shift toward remote work, which has
resulted in some homebuyers deprioritizing commute times and
relocating from expensive cities that lean blue to rural and
suburban areas that tend to vote more red—which tend to lean red or
purple—where they can find more space for less money. And according
to Redfin.com user search data, a record 27.4% of home searchers
looked to move to a different metro area in the second quarter,
many of them away from California
and New York and into states like
Arizona, Texas, Florida and North
Carolina that lean red or purple.
"The Democratic presidential candidate could win Arizona for the first time in 24 years, in
part due to this year's pandemic-driven migration," Marr said. "The
rise in remote work means people with a wide variety of political
views have the freedom to leave heavily blue cities like
New York and San Francisco for more affordable places like
Phoenix. There is evidence from
polling and voter registration trends that some liberal people who
have left California since the
last election are landing in Arizona and bringing their votes with
them."
"But in most states, migration is more likely to segregate
people along political lines," Marr continued. "That's partly
because most migrants move to a different county within the same
state. But even those who move to different states are often
essentially sorting themselves by political views, such as
Republicans moving to a place where most people are conservative,
Democrats moving to a place where most people are liberal, or
politically moderate people being pushed one way or the other based
on the makeup of their new neighborhood."
Phoenix is typically one of the
top three destinations for Redfin.com users searching outside their
home metro, with 35.1% of searches for homes in Phoenix from outside the area in the second
quarter, up from 27.9% in the first quarter of 2017. Los Angeles, Seattle, Chicago, the Bay
Area and Denver are the top
five origins for people moving into Phoenix. People moving into Phoenix from more liberal areas could factor
into Arizona gaining 51,000 more
registered Democrats than Republicans—amid an increase of 400,000
new registered voters overall—since the 2016 presidential
election.
In Arizona, roughly the same
share of people relocating looked to move to counties that lean
blue, those that lean red and swing counties in the second quarter.
Redfin's migration data in Arizona
is limited to "leans blue" and "leans red" counties; it does not
have sufficient data for firmly blue and firmly red
counties.
Red and swing counties are more popular in New York than any other state
The trend of moving away from politically blue areas is most
pronounced in New York State,
where 29.2% more people looked to move to red and swing counties
than blue counties in the second quarter of 2020. Next come
Wisconsin and Oregon, where 10.6% and 10.2% more people
looked to move to red or swing counties than blue counties,
respectively.
"People are leaving New York
City for towns like White
Plains, Rhinebeck and
Ridgefield, Connecticut because
remote work has given them the freedom to prioritize large lots,
lakefront properties and big backyards with swimming pools," said
Steven Weiss, a Redfin real estate
agent in New York City's northern
suburbs. "Some of the places people are moving into, like
Dutchess County and Putnam County, lean much more Republican than
Manhattan, but politics don't seem
to have anything to do with their decisions. Buyers are going about
40 miles farther north than they used to, where homes are bigger
and more affordable, because commute times don't matter nearly as
much when they're not going to the office every day. As a result,
home prices are higher than I've ever seen them."
New Mexico, where 8.7% more
people looked to move to blue counties than red or swing
counties, is the biggest exception to the trend. It's followed by
Louisiana (5.5%) and Connecticut (2.8%).
Affordability is key motivator for movement out of big cities
and into rural and suburban neighborhoods
Housing affordability is a major reason for migration out of
blue counties, which tend to be large urban areas, and into red and
swing counties, which are typically home to rural and suburban
neighborhoods. The typical home in a blue county sold for
$346,000 in August, compared with
$209,000 in red counties and
$259,500 in swing counties. Residents
of blue counties also spend a larger share of their household
income on housing—30.8%—compared with 27% for red-county residents
and 29.6% for swing-county residents.
Expensive coastal cities typically see the biggest portion of
people moving away, while relatively affordable places tend to see
people moving in, according to Redfin's migration data. One caveat
to note is that U.S. residents moving out of big coastal cities is
usually partly offset by immigration, with international migration
contributing six times more population growth in highly Democratic
counties than highly Republican counties in 2017.
Movement away from blue counties and into red counties isn't
new. In the first half of 2017, the last time Redfin completed this
analysis, 7.4% more people looked to move to red and swing counties
than to blue counties.
To read the full report, please
visit: https://www.redfin.com/blog/migration-blue-to-red-politics-housing
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a
technology-powered residential real estate company, redefining real
estate in the consumer's favor in a commission-driven industry. We
do this by integrating every step of the home buying and selling
process and pairing our own agents with our own technology,
creating a service that is faster, better and costs less. We offer
brokerage, iBuying, mortgage, and title services, and we also run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage search site, offering a host
of online tools to consumers, including the Redfin Estimate. We
represent people buying and selling homes in over 90 markets in
the United States and Canada. Since our launch in 2006, we have
saved our customers over $800 million
and we've helped them buy or sell more than 235,000 homes worth
more than $115 billion.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
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SOURCE Redfin