Bond Investors Bet On Rise in Inflation -- Update
November 13 2019 - 5:17PM
Dow Jones News
By Daniel Kruger
Bond investors are betting inflation is making a comeback.
Market-based measures of inflation expectations have climbed in
recent weeks, lifted by investors' falling concerns about a
near-term recession and growing comfort with riskier assets.
The average inflation rate investors expect during the next 10
years -- measured by the gap between the yields of 10-year U.S.
government debt and Treasury inflation-protected securities of
similar maturity -- has risen to about 1.7 percentage points from
roughly 1.55 percentage points at the end of last month. The
so-called 10-year break-even rate earlier this week recorded its
largest six-day gain since November 2016, climbing 17 basis points
from the end of last month.
The 10-year break-even rate was a recent 1.68 percentage points,
according to Tradeweb. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury
declined for a second consecutive trading session, settling at
1.870% compared with 1.909% Tuesday. Bond yields fall when their
prices rise.
Inflation expectations had fallen below 1.5% -- a level analysts
said was consistent with expectations for a recession -- as
recently as last month.
Investors said the Federal Reserve's three interest-rate cuts
this year have boosted the prospects for inflation, and few believe
it will climb fast enough for policy makers to need to raise rates
soon. Officials have been rethinking their approach to inflation,
expressing a willingness to let prices rise faster than the Fed's
2% target to compensate for the long period below that level.
"If we let this run, some inflation will come back," said Rob
Waldner, chief strategist and head of multisector portfolio
management at Invesco. His firm has made bets that the break-even
rate will rise as the economy continues to grow.
Break-even rates are still relatively low on a historical basis,
held down by decelerating growth and oil prices that are well below
their highs for the year. But investors now expect inflation to
pick up next year. Nearly one-in-three fund managers in a Bank of
America Merrill Lynch survey expects that inflation will accelerate
in the next 12 months, up from near zero in recent months.
The consumer-price index rose 0.4% last month, the Labor
Department said Wednesday. That was more than the 0.3% increase
predicted by economists in a survey by The Wall Street Journal.
From a year earlier, consumer prices in October were 1.8%, higher
than the 1.7% year-over-year increase seen in the previous two
months.
A weaker dollar could also lift inflation, said Rick Rieder,
chief investment officer of global fixed-income at BlackRock
Inc.
A falling dollar typically boosts inflation by making imported
goods more expensive while also adding stimulus to the economy, Mr.
Rieder said. He has added to bets that the break-even rate will
rise in accounts that he manages.
The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against a
basket of 16 others, fell less than 0.1% to a recent 91.11. It has
declined 1% from a multiyear high at the end of September.
Write to Daniel Kruger at Daniel.Kruger@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 13, 2019 17:02 ET (22:02 GMT)
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