Negative U.S. Interest Rates? Options Traders Say Yes
October 17 2019 - 5:59AM
Dow Jones News
By Gunjan Banerji
Derivatives traders are betting on something once considered
inconceivable: zero or negative interest rates in the U.S.
They are scooping up options that would pay out if interest
rates fell below zero. The number of bullish contracts outstanding
on Eurodollar futures that pay out if interest rates hit zero or
fall below has increased to about 1.2 million, according to CME
Group data through September.
That is the highest level since at least 2011 and up from about
132,000 contracts last September. Some of these bets are
longer-dated, expiring in 2021 or 2022. A contract tied to U.S.
rates hitting zero is one of the most popular for Eurodollar
options expiring in late 2021, according to data provider
QuikStrike.
"People are trading things that imply negative rates are not
just possible but reasonably probable," said Josh Younger, head of
U.S. interest-rate derivatives strategy at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
"The market's willingness to price in negative rates has gone up
significantly."
Options give investors the right to buy or sell securities by a
certain date. Calls confer the right to buy, while puts give the
right to sell. Eurodollar futures are derivatives that allow
investors to bet on the future direction of interest rates, or
hedge other parts of their portfolios. Contrary to their name, they
aren't bets on currencies. Higher prices for Eurodollar futures
typically correspond to lower interest rates.
The Federal Reserve already trimmed rates twice in the last
quarter and left the door open to do so again as soon as this
month. Though many consider the U.S. economy to be on sounder
footing than others, some investors are girding for up to two more
cuts through the end of the year, CME Group data show.
Additionally, the pile of negatively yielding debt world-wide
increased to more than $15 trillion in recent months, while 16
central banks -- from India to New Zealand -- slashed rates in the
third quarter. JPMorgan analysts expect almost two dozen more to do
so through the rest of the year, they wrote in a Sept. 27 note.
Some of this derivatives activity stemmed from investors
fretting about the escalation of trade tensions between the U.S.
and China, said Arthur Bass, a managing director at Wedbush
Securities.
As investors' economic outlooks for the U.S. deteriorated, they
started anticipating lower and lower interest rates in the U.S.
"There were definitely a lot of fear trades being done," said
Mr. Bass, of the derivatives trading.
The Fed has signaled that it seeks to sustain the current
economic expansion and cushion the domestic economy against a
global slowdown. President Trump has also called on the Fed to
lower rates.
The options activity also comes as investors are contemplating
how effective monetary policy can be during a potential recession
when the Fed has already cut rates twice.
Before this year, the last time the Fed lowered rates was in the
depths of the financial crisis. If a true recession hits, some
analysts question whether the Fed will have enough ammunition left
to boost the economy.
Many consider the U.S. economy to be humming along, though at a
slower pace than before, with the jobless rate recently hitting a
50-year low. Despite falling interest rates, the notion of zero or
negative rates in the U.S. remains far-fetched to some
investors.
"This is all about odds making," Mr. Younger said. For example,
in horse-racing, "the horse that has the 10th least likelihood of
winning does win sometimes."
Some investors have also bet on a dramatic move higher in
interest rates as activity overall has increased this year, options
data shows.
"It's part of a broader story of increased uncertainty around
FOMC policy action," said Agha Mirza, global head of interest-rate
products at CME Group, referring to the rate-setting Federal Open
Market Committee at the Fed.
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Write to Gunjan Banerji at Gunjan.Banerji@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 17, 2019 05:44 ET (09:44 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.