By Nick Timiraos
WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve officials held interest rates
steady on Wednesday but strongly suggested they would cut them in
the months ahead if an economic outlook clouded by uncertainty over
trade policy didn't improve.
"The case for somewhat more accommodative policy has
strengthened," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a news conference
after the central bank announced its decision. Still, citing recent
favorable economic data, The Fed didn't bow to pressure from
President Trump for an immediate rate cut.
U.S. stocks rose toward record highs. The S&P 500 added 8.71
points, or 0.3%, to 2926.46, leaving the index just 0.7% from its
record high in April. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell for
the seventh straight session to 2.023%, its lowest level since
November 2016, from 2.060% on Tuesday.
The Fed is set to meet next on July 30-31, and investors in
interest-rate futures markets have priced in at least a
quarter-percentage-point cut then in the central bank's benchmark
short-term rate. "The market now knows the Fed is going to ease
unless the data dramatically reverse," said Steven Blitz, chief
U.S. economist at TS Lombard.
Since Fed officials met last month, escalating trade tensions
between the U.S. and China and weaker global growth have raised the
risks of a sharper slowdown for the U.S. economy than they had
anticipated this year.
"It's really trade developments and concerns about global growth
that are on our minds," Mr. Powell said. Because many of these
issues had arisen suddenly, many Fed officials wanted to wait a
little longer before cutting rates, he said.
For the Fed to not cut rates at its July meeting, "it would take
all of the data coming in to be consistently strong," together with
an end to trade-related uncertainty, said Seth Carpenter, chief
U.S. economist at UBS.
The central bank's rate-setting committee on Wednesday dropped
language from its policy statement describing its stance as
"patient" -- which implied rates were on hold. Instead, it said
uncertainties about the economic outlook have increased, a phrase
it has used during past periods of rate cuts.
"The committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming
information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to
sustain the expansion," the statement said.
Interest-rate projections released Wednesday showed eight of 17
officials -- the reserve bank presidents and board governors who
participate in the Fed meetings -- expect they will cut the
benchmark rate by year's end from its current level in a range
between 2.25% and 2.5%. Seven of those officials see lowering the
rate by a half percentage point by the close of 2019, and one
expects just a quarter-percentage-point reduction. Eight officials
projected the Fed would hold rates steady, and one projected a rate
increase.
"What surprised us most was the number of participants that
shifted down to rate cuts. It was about half the committee," said
Tiffany Wilding, U.S. economist at Pimco. "That several people view
this no longer as a risk case, but their base case, is very
notable."
Moreover, even though some officials didn't project rate cuts,
"our deliberations made clear that a number of those [officials]
agree that the case for additional accommodation has strengthened,"
said Mr. Powell.
Mr. Powell said there was "not much" support for cutting rates
at the meeting, and the vote to hold rates steady passed on a 9-1
vote. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard dissented from the rate
decision, preferring lower rates. It was the first dissenting vote
cast since Mr. Powell became Fed chairman in February 2018, after
he was named by Mr. Trump.
If the Fed lowers rates next month, it would be the first cut
since 2008, when the central bank lowered rates to near zero during
the financial crisis. It held them at that low level for seven
years.
The Fed has initiated a sequence of rate cuts four times in the
past 25 years. In 2001 and 2007, a recession began within three
months. In 1995 and 1998, the Fed lowered rates in time to prevent
an economic slowdown from turning into a full-fledged downturn, and
officials later reversed some of those cuts.
Mr. Powell said the Fed was prepared to react aggressively to
any weakness, drawing from research that says when rates are
historically low, as they are now, officials should move faster and
sooner because they have less room to cut hem. "In other words, an
ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure," he said.
Fed officials have been trying to navigate a so-called soft
landing, in which inflation stays contained and growth moderates
but doesn't slow so much that the economy tips into recession.
To that end, officials raised rates four times last year and in
December projected several more rises would be needed this year and
next. Slowing global growth and muted inflation earlier this year
led Mr. Powell to signal an earlier end to rate rises.
More recently, the global economic outlook and uncertainty over
Mr. Trump's trade policies have led to a pullback in business
investment and sentiment.
"Trump is providing the headwinds the Fed thought they'd have to
provide" through their rate increases, said Vincent Reinhart, chief
economist at Mellon and a former senior economist at the Fed. "The
risk is that you slow the global expansion of trade too much and
put the economy into a stall."
With the Fed meeting out of the way, markets are likely to focus
now on the prospects for Mr. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping
to put trade negotiations back on track during a meeting at next
week's G-20 world leader summit in Japan.
By ratifying market expectations for future rate cuts and
avoiding a selloff in stocks Wednesday, Mr. Powell "put the
responsibility to hold the market up back on Trump," said Mr.
Blitz. "The market reaction 100% belongs to Trump now, in terms of
what comes out of the meeting next week."
The Fed's rate projections highlighted two different possible
trajectories for the economy that have surfaced amid an escalation
of trade tensions in recent weeks. Under one, trade negotiations
avoid further disruption of global supply chains and prevent drags
on business investment, which would allow the Fed to hold rates
steady. Under the other, worsening trade frictions and weak global
growth lead to a sharper slowdown for the U.S. economy, warranting
Fed rate reductions.
Mr. Trump has called on the Fed to cut its benchmark rate by 1
percentage point. As the Fed began its two-day policy meeting on
Tuesday, Mr. Trump responded to months-old speculation that he
would try to remove Mr. Powell as Fed chairman by saying obliquely,
"Let's see what he does."
Mr. Powell suggested Wednesday he didn't believe the law gave
Mr. Trump the authority to remove him. "I have a four-year term,
and I fully intend to serve it," he said.
Mr. Trump nominated Mr. Powell -- a veteran of the Treasury
Department under the administration of George H.W. Bush who has
served on the Fed's board since 2012 -- to lead the central bank in
2017. Last year, the president sharply criticized the Fed for
raising rates, fueling speculation from market participants that
Mr. Powell was responding to political pressure when he signaled an
end to rate increases this year.
Publicly, Mr. Powell has strenuously denied that politics
influence the Fed's decisions. Privately, he has told colleagues he
recognizes history will judge him on whether his decisions are
based on economic analysis, ignoring political pressures.
With the U.S. economy doing "reasonably well," moving to cut
rates as aggressively as Mr. Trump wants right now "would destroy
the independence of the Fed.... It is not something which should be
done," said former Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer at a
conference in Portugal on Tuesday.
Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 19, 2019 19:40 ET (23:40 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.