Fed's Rosengren Sees No Reason to Change Rate Policy Right Now --Update
May 21 2019 - 1:52PM
Dow Jones News
By Michael S. Derby
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston chief Eric Rosengren said Tuesday
he sees no "clarion call" to change central bank interest rate
policy right now, in comments that indicated sustained trade
tariffs could accelerate a return to the Fed's 2% inflation
target.
"I view current policy as slightly accommodative and likely to
be consistent with inflation returning to the Fed's 2% inflation
target over time," Mr. Rosengren said in a speech at the Economic
Club of New York. He added that when it comes to price pressures
moving back to desired levels, "this is likely to occur more
rapidly if tariffs are imposed."
Mr. Rosengren holds a voting role on the rate-setting Federal
Open Market Committee this year. His view that the central bank
faces no imminent need to change short-term borrowing costs mirrors
that of many of his colleagues.
With solid growth, a healthy labor market and low inflation,
central bankers by and large see no reason to raise or lower a
short-term target rate range that now stands at between 2.25% and
2.50%. Financial markets, however, reckon there's a good chance
that the Fed may have to lower rates by year end, in large part due
to the persistent weakness of inflation relative to the 2%
target.
The Fed adopted its inflation target in 2012 and failed to
achieve it in a sustainable fashion at any point. What's more,
inflation pressures have weakened this year, as have expectations
of future price rises. Key Fed officials like Chairman Jerome
Powell and New York Fed leader John Williams have all said they
believe the weakness of inflation is temporary and that inflation
will rise back to desired levels over time.
In his speech, Mr. Rosengren was upbeat about the outlook, but
he described the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China
are a negative for the outlook. He expects the trade disagreements
to be resolved, but if they aren't, they could have an impact on
the U.S. economy.
"The presence of a prominent downside risk -- more disruptive
trade negotiations -- seems to me to be another important reason
for policymaker patience until this source of uncertainty is more
resolved," he said.
Contrary to President's Trump's repeated assertions that China
is paying for the significant tariffs he has erected on their
goods, Mr. Rosengren explained how that isn't true.
"U.S. tariffs are effectively taxes on imports, and our trading
partners' tariffs are taxes they pay on our exports," Mr. Rosengren
said. "Tariffs matter when it comes to inflation" and "tariffs will
tend to raise prices on imported goods to the U.S."
How much of an impact tariffs have on the economy and on
inflation depends on whether the tariffs are prolonged, and whether
consumers can find domestically produced goods to substitute for
the more expensive Chinese goods, Mr. Rosengren said. He didn't
quantify how much inflationary upside might result from prolonged
tariffs.
Mr. Rosengren told the audience that if sustained trade tariffs
caused a persistent rise in inflation, it could draw a
monetary-policy response.
Long-running tariffs could push up inflation and become a bigger
factor for the job market, and the Fed wouldn't shrug this off, he
said. "It's going to be really hard to distinguish [the tariff
impact] particularly in tight labor market," so the Fed would have
to focus on the headline number and proceed accordingly, Mr.
Rosengren explained.
When it comes to the economy's performance so far, things are
looking pretty good, Mr. Rosengren said.
"The broader U.S. economy seems to be displaying a sounder
footing than it was at the beginning of this year," he said. "Both
the consensus outlook and my own forecast suggest a modest step
down from last year's pace but still imply enough momentum to push
the unemployment rate down even further."
Write to Michael S. Derby at michael.derby@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 21, 2019 13:37 ET (17:37 GMT)
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