Treasury Yields Rise on Signs of Easing Trade Tensions
December 12 2018 - 4:27PM
Dow Jones News
By Akane Otani
U.S. government bond prices fell Wednesday as signs of progress
on trade talks between Washington and Beijing spurred fresh
risk-appetite across markets.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note settled at
2.908%, up from 2.881% Tuesday.
Yields, which rise as bond prices fall, jumped with stock
futures after The Wall Street Journal reported that China was
planning to replace its "Made in China 2025" policy -- something
that the Trump administration had criticized as being
protectionist. The replacement policy, which is meant to help ease
trade tensions with the U.S., would offer foreign companies greater
access to China, people briefed on the matter told the Journal.
Rallies across riskier assets like stocks tend to soften demand
for Treasurys, which investors consider a haven.
Earlier in the session, bond yields had held on to small
advances for the day after Labor Department data showed U.S.
consumer prices were flat in November as expected.
Traders have been closely watching inflation data throughout the
year to gauge whether price pressures are picking up at a pace that
might push the Federal Reserve to accelerate its pace of
interest-rate increases. Inflation tends to damp investor demand
for Treasurys since it chips away at the purchasing power of bonds'
fixed payouts.
Still, data over recent weeks have generally reassured investors
that inflation remains benign for now. Sliding oil prices kept the
consumer-price index, which measures what Americans pay for
everything from gasoline to hamburgers, unchanged in November
following a seasonally adjusted 0.3% gain in October.
"It's a bit of a goldilocks read: not too hot to warrant an
acceleration of rate increases, but not too cold for the Fed to
hold off next week," said Mike Loewengart, vice president of
investment strategy at E*Trade, in emailed comments.
While CME Group data Wednesday afternoon showed traders are
pricing in a roughly 80% chance of the Fed raising interest rates
at its meeting next week, the rate path for 2019 has become more
murky over the past few months. The market-implied probability for
at least one rate increase by March 2019 has dropped to around 32%,
according to CME Group, from 53% one month ago.
"The Fed is likely to pivot in 2019 and tread with more caution
on rate hikes," said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant
Thornton, in a statement.
Write to Akane Otani at akane.otani@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 12, 2018 16:12 ET (21:12 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2018 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.